The entire Texas argument is actually based on Oklahoma's performance against Tech. Tech was beaten so bad by the Sooners that they should be excluded from a three way tie in the standings? Nonsense. You can't penalize Oklahoma and Tech for what happened in Norman. If Tech is reduced to second-tier status, then that makes OSU second tier or worse, which got blown out by Tech, also second tier. OK, Texas lost to one and barely beat the other at home.
I love how the BCS is inappropriate to use to settle a three way tie in the standings but perfectly fine to narrow a field from three to two. How convenient.
For the gem of the day (and I take no credit for this as I lifted it from elsewhere), Texas coach Mack Brown voted Texas 15th in his final 2006 ballot. The issue? He voted the A&M team, with an identical 9-3 record, that just beat the Horns in Austin, 22nd in the country. Head to head hypocrisy.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Oath Proposal for ESPN
ESPN's talking heads seem quick to point out how much emphasis should be put on the result in Dallas. It seems they really want to frame this as a two-team race despite the reality of a three way tie and the reality that TECH would go to Kansas City with an OU loss in Bedlam. For all those that claim it MUST come down to head to head, then every media member should have no problem applying their logic to answer these simple questions.
If Oklahoma loses to OSU and Tech beats Missouri in the Big 12 title game, would you vote Tech over Texas for a spot in the BCS title game?
If Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the Big 12 title game, would you vote Tech over Texas for a spot in the BCS title game?
Do you have Florida ranked based on their resume or how they are playing SINCE their HOME loss to unranked (at the time) Ole Miss?
If Oklahoma loses to OSU and Tech beats Missouri in the Big 12 title game, would you vote Tech over Texas for a spot in the BCS title game?
If Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the Big 12 title game, would you vote Tech over Texas for a spot in the BCS title game?
Do you have Florida ranked based on their resume or how they are playing SINCE their HOME loss to unranked (at the time) Ole Miss?
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
BCS rankings may decide the Heisman
Oklahoma has to beat Tech and OSU - no easy task - but we are a nation of speculators. Sports, capital and commodity markets, doesn't matter. We like to think ahead. If OU wins out and creates a three-way tie, the Big 12 South will likely be determined by (gulp) the BCS rankings.
What about the Heisman Trophy? Tebow has reappeared but the leading candidates appear to be the 3 QBs in the Big 12 South. It figures that the Big 12 South QB with the best chance at the Heisman is the one that will emerge as the key figure in the 'winner' of the toughest division in college football and the one that will have the prime time opportunity to leave a lasting impression with a strong performance and win in the Big 12 championship game.
What about the Heisman Trophy? Tebow has reappeared but the leading candidates appear to be the 3 QBs in the Big 12 South. It figures that the Big 12 South QB with the best chance at the Heisman is the one that will emerge as the key figure in the 'winner' of the toughest division in college football and the one that will have the prime time opportunity to leave a lasting impression with a strong performance and win in the Big 12 championship game.
The Plus One Idea
What if the playoff opposition is just too strong? There has been some support for looking into a plus one. Most recommend a four team playoff of the top 4 ranked BCS teams after the final Saturday of the regular season/conference championship games.
Let's examine last year. I would be willing to bet that you take a random poll of college football fans across the country and ask them a simple question "Which team would have won a four team playoff?" that USC and Georgia would be extremely popular responses. Problem - USC and Georgia would not have been in a four team playoff last year. That's right. The final regular season BCS rankings were Ohio State, LSU, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. 3 of those 4 got 'exposed' in their bowl games. Now you see the potential for continued controversy.
Plus, a four team playoff with a plus one still leaves two of the four BCS games irrelevant. To me the main issue with the post-season is that the BCS bowls have become irrelevant with the stand alone title game held several days after. To solve this problem and make the Rose and other bowls happy that would like to maintain conference ties - play the BCS bowl games on January 1st - Old School style - and then the BCS formula selects 2 of the 4 winners for a plus one. Controversy remains but this is about making the BCS games relevant again. Must see TV. Just like the first Saturday in December is now - channel surfing to check on whether or not a late upset will shake up the title chase.
Let's examine last year. I would be willing to bet that you take a random poll of college football fans across the country and ask them a simple question "Which team would have won a four team playoff?" that USC and Georgia would be extremely popular responses. Problem - USC and Georgia would not have been in a four team playoff last year. That's right. The final regular season BCS rankings were Ohio State, LSU, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. 3 of those 4 got 'exposed' in their bowl games. Now you see the potential for continued controversy.
Plus, a four team playoff with a plus one still leaves two of the four BCS games irrelevant. To me the main issue with the post-season is that the BCS bowls have become irrelevant with the stand alone title game held several days after. To solve this problem and make the Rose and other bowls happy that would like to maintain conference ties - play the BCS bowl games on January 1st - Old School style - and then the BCS formula selects 2 of the 4 winners for a plus one. Controversy remains but this is about making the BCS games relevant again. Must see TV. Just like the first Saturday in December is now - channel surfing to check on whether or not a late upset will shake up the title chase.
Playoff system that might work and a plus one idea
The great topic in college football is BCS v. playoff. The BCS is flawed but a minority of college football fans appreciate the drama it creates during the regular season. The type of drama and impact that simply does not exist in any other sport's regular season. One game can mean everything with respect to a title contender in college football. Ask Pete Carroll. If USC beats Oregon State in late September, they are currently at least one of the top two teams in the country. Instead, because of that loss, they are on the outside looking in. Their title hopes essentially rest with Missouri knocking off the Big 12 South representative in Kansas City. Because of the system, USC fans will be glued to a TV or at least their mobile phone for scoring updates. Does that happen with a playoff system in place? Nope.
I have seen a lot of playoff ideas. Most are incredibly naive because they do not account for the dynamics of college football. College football is not the NFL - even though plenty of so-called fans seem to think it could be - thank God its not. I like football but the NFL regular season is a yawner. Individual games don't matter that much. The games matter only in aggregate and only to reach a certain benchmark to qualify for the "second season" - the post season. Fans complain about .500 teams making pre-Christmas bowl games. What about when .500 teams make the NFL playoffs and can compete with a 14 win team? If you like the "reset" of the season, fine, just don't tell me the regular season matters that much.
What defines the best team? Over what time period? The Giants were Super Bowl champs because they were the best in January - a fraction of the overall season. They couldn't beat the Cowboys in the regular season (home or away) or New England at home. They didn't win their division and yet they are the Super Bowl champs. Were the Giants truly the best team in the NFL? Not for me.
Let's say you vote with President Elect Obama and want a playoff. Here is one that might actually have a chance to work when you consider the dynamics of college football in that it is a collection of self-governing entities.
First, the system would be run by the BCS. The power conferences and their schools want no part of turning over the keys to the post-season money to the NCAA.
8 team playoff that begins with the BCS bowls:
Rose - Big Ten vs. Pac-10
Fiesta - Big 12 vs. TBD
Sugar - SEC vs. TBD
Orange - ACC vs. Big East
8 spots - 6 BCS conference champions, 1 spot for the highest ranked non-BCS conference champ and a wildcard (Notre Dame factor should they get smart and let go of Weis and become competitive again). However, the teams must be ranked in the final 14 of the BCS rankings or a spot opens up.
Why does the Rose get their matchup even if it might be No. 1 USC vs. No. 2 Ohio State in a given year? Because, the Rose Bowl has been a thorn in the side of a playoff or plus one because they want to keep tradition. If you give them their traditional matchup every year (given they rank in the top 14), then the Rose would champion such a playoff system. If not, they won't play ball and as long as the Pac-10 and Big Ten are willing to side with them and boycott a new format, no system is truly legitimate without consensus of the major conferences. Like it or not, do the homework of previous articles/discussions on the subject and you will find the Rose has a tremendous amount of leverage.
Why not just top 8 in the BCS? Because of what happened last year where the top 8 consisted of 3 Big 12 teams and no Big East champ (West Virginia) and no Hawaii. If the money comes from the BCS appearances, the conferences won't sign off on a system that could see two dominant conferences (SEC and Big 12) take almost all of the post-season money in a given year.
Play the BCS games January 1st/2nd and then the highest ranked winners host a semi-final round? Why? Logistics. It is economically unrealistic for even a large fan base to take the time and money to travel to three straight neutral site games in a row, particularly on the heels of the holiday season. The home semis helps keep the initial fan focus on the BCS games and creates major incentive for teams to stay as high in the rankings as possible. The title game is played at a neutral site on a Sat night in mid January.
I have seen a lot of playoff ideas. Most are incredibly naive because they do not account for the dynamics of college football. College football is not the NFL - even though plenty of so-called fans seem to think it could be - thank God its not. I like football but the NFL regular season is a yawner. Individual games don't matter that much. The games matter only in aggregate and only to reach a certain benchmark to qualify for the "second season" - the post season. Fans complain about .500 teams making pre-Christmas bowl games. What about when .500 teams make the NFL playoffs and can compete with a 14 win team? If you like the "reset" of the season, fine, just don't tell me the regular season matters that much.
What defines the best team? Over what time period? The Giants were Super Bowl champs because they were the best in January - a fraction of the overall season. They couldn't beat the Cowboys in the regular season (home or away) or New England at home. They didn't win their division and yet they are the Super Bowl champs. Were the Giants truly the best team in the NFL? Not for me.
Let's say you vote with President Elect Obama and want a playoff. Here is one that might actually have a chance to work when you consider the dynamics of college football in that it is a collection of self-governing entities.
First, the system would be run by the BCS. The power conferences and their schools want no part of turning over the keys to the post-season money to the NCAA.
8 team playoff that begins with the BCS bowls:
Rose - Big Ten vs. Pac-10
Fiesta - Big 12 vs. TBD
Sugar - SEC vs. TBD
Orange - ACC vs. Big East
8 spots - 6 BCS conference champions, 1 spot for the highest ranked non-BCS conference champ and a wildcard (Notre Dame factor should they get smart and let go of Weis and become competitive again). However, the teams must be ranked in the final 14 of the BCS rankings or a spot opens up.
Why does the Rose get their matchup even if it might be No. 1 USC vs. No. 2 Ohio State in a given year? Because, the Rose Bowl has been a thorn in the side of a playoff or plus one because they want to keep tradition. If you give them their traditional matchup every year (given they rank in the top 14), then the Rose would champion such a playoff system. If not, they won't play ball and as long as the Pac-10 and Big Ten are willing to side with them and boycott a new format, no system is truly legitimate without consensus of the major conferences. Like it or not, do the homework of previous articles/discussions on the subject and you will find the Rose has a tremendous amount of leverage.
Why not just top 8 in the BCS? Because of what happened last year where the top 8 consisted of 3 Big 12 teams and no Big East champ (West Virginia) and no Hawaii. If the money comes from the BCS appearances, the conferences won't sign off on a system that could see two dominant conferences (SEC and Big 12) take almost all of the post-season money in a given year.
Play the BCS games January 1st/2nd and then the highest ranked winners host a semi-final round? Why? Logistics. It is economically unrealistic for even a large fan base to take the time and money to travel to three straight neutral site games in a row, particularly on the heels of the holiday season. The home semis helps keep the initial fan focus on the BCS games and creates major incentive for teams to stay as high in the rankings as possible. The title game is played at a neutral site on a Sat night in mid January.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Requiring interviews for minority candidates
The story was out this week about the lack of minority head coaches in college football. Much progress has been made in the college coaching profession with the number of minority assistants rising. The head coach is the high profile position. There was a state by state poll on ESPN.com and only North Dakota felt that schools should be required to interview minority candidates. I believe they have the rule in some sports and what it usually becomes is a sham. Isn't the token minority interview a slap in the face when the media has already reported a team is locked in on a particular candidate? A good argument for it might be that person gets the experience of going through the interview process.
This stretches into other social issues but the ultimate goal is that minorities don't need assistance. We aren't there yet but mandating minority interviews is not the way to move in that direction either. I say no mandate. As an alternative, use a potent form of action that would involve the players (minority or not) that make up collegiate sports. Instead of mandates, an organization could track and provide information to recruits on the background, hiring and firing records of any school. This organization could push this information to recruits and their parents to make it part of their evaluation process - if they so choose. We need to push more responsibility on our younger people - not less.
The same organization that collects and distributes this info to high school recruits should also gather feedback and report it back to the schools. If an athletic director sees a report that a number of high profile recruits eliminated his school partially due to the school's previous and existing record on hiring coaches (minority or not), over time changes will be made because they AD wants to win or he will be out of a job.
I hope we can agree that even though minority coaches may be behind in getting head coaching jobs because of their race, they are not getting fired because of their race. It's about record. Look around the country at plenty of white coaches getting the boot. Ron Prince and Tyrone Willingham. I offer Tommy Bowden and Phillip Fulmer. Fulmer won a national title and played in the SEC championship game just last year. People like to bring up the Willingham boot from Notre Dame. We are a society of speculators and the business of college football is no different as we closely project the future by analyzing recruiting classes. Maybe race did play a role but the comparison to Weis has to be met with some caution. It's not about Weis' race, it's about he and his agent pulling off the greatest coaching con of all time by artificially creating a market in the NFL for his services and thus Notre Dame paid up and signed him to a long-term extension out of fear. It's about timing. Think Weis would get that contract now? The Notre Dame AD has had to release a statement about his job security after an article in the Sun-Times raised some doubt.
This stretches into other social issues but the ultimate goal is that minorities don't need assistance. We aren't there yet but mandating minority interviews is not the way to move in that direction either. I say no mandate. As an alternative, use a potent form of action that would involve the players (minority or not) that make up collegiate sports. Instead of mandates, an organization could track and provide information to recruits on the background, hiring and firing records of any school. This organization could push this information to recruits and their parents to make it part of their evaluation process - if they so choose. We need to push more responsibility on our younger people - not less.
The same organization that collects and distributes this info to high school recruits should also gather feedback and report it back to the schools. If an athletic director sees a report that a number of high profile recruits eliminated his school partially due to the school's previous and existing record on hiring coaches (minority or not), over time changes will be made because they AD wants to win or he will be out of a job.
I hope we can agree that even though minority coaches may be behind in getting head coaching jobs because of their race, they are not getting fired because of their race. It's about record. Look around the country at plenty of white coaches getting the boot. Ron Prince and Tyrone Willingham. I offer Tommy Bowden and Phillip Fulmer. Fulmer won a national title and played in the SEC championship game just last year. People like to bring up the Willingham boot from Notre Dame. We are a society of speculators and the business of college football is no different as we closely project the future by analyzing recruiting classes. Maybe race did play a role but the comparison to Weis has to be met with some caution. It's not about Weis' race, it's about he and his agent pulling off the greatest coaching con of all time by artificially creating a market in the NFL for his services and thus Notre Dame paid up and signed him to a long-term extension out of fear. It's about timing. Think Weis would get that contract now? The Notre Dame AD has had to release a statement about his job security after an article in the Sun-Times raised some doubt.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Rankings and BCS
I understand the playoff push but I like the what the BCS does to the regular season. So much more interesting. It makes college football the best regular season sport even if it means the post-season can be a major disappointment. The BCS is probably going to work - again. Depends on a personal definition of "work." The likely matchup is going to be the SEC champ vs. the Big 12 South champ. That is assuming the games play out as expected. Florida and Alabama win out until their meeting and the Oklahoma/Tech winner wins out with Texas. Then the controversy is squarely on the BCS rankings to select the winner of the Big 12 South but there is plenty of football to be played.
Rankings:
1. Texas Tech - impressive performance when many predicted a big win hangover.
2. Alabama - here because they are undefeated but they just aren't as impressive as other teams. If LSU got decent QB play, they beat Bama.
3. Texas - needed a spark to break away from Baylor but they were due for a letdown game.
4. Oklahoma - the Sooners might outscore every team but special teams is downright embarrassing and defense is improving but still giving up too many big plays.
5. Florida - these rankings are about resume and the Gators have a home loss to Ole Miss.
6. USC - impressed with the defense but offense not so much.
7. Utah - lucky that TCU can't make a FG but still undefeated.
8. TCU - wish they could make a FG.
9. Penn State - the anti-Big Ten faction can rest easy
10. Oklahoma State - disappointing performance at Tech but still could play the role of a spoiler.
Viewer's Guide
Thu - VT at Miami is a decent name matchup.
Fri - Cinci at Louisville might be worth a check in.
Saturday
Early Big Ten games only might be worth it for potential inclement weather football.
Texas at Kansas 11:30cst FSN HD - KU has tanked lately. A Texas loss would ripple across the Big 12 South.
South Carolina at Florida 3:30 eastern - CBS HD - the ole ball coach returns home.
That's it. A good weekend to put up Christmas lights.
Rankings:
1. Texas Tech - impressive performance when many predicted a big win hangover.
2. Alabama - here because they are undefeated but they just aren't as impressive as other teams. If LSU got decent QB play, they beat Bama.
3. Texas - needed a spark to break away from Baylor but they were due for a letdown game.
4. Oklahoma - the Sooners might outscore every team but special teams is downright embarrassing and defense is improving but still giving up too many big plays.
5. Florida - these rankings are about resume and the Gators have a home loss to Ole Miss.
6. USC - impressed with the defense but offense not so much.
7. Utah - lucky that TCU can't make a FG but still undefeated.
8. TCU - wish they could make a FG.
9. Penn State - the anti-Big Ten faction can rest easy
10. Oklahoma State - disappointing performance at Tech but still could play the role of a spoiler.
Viewer's Guide
Thu - VT at Miami is a decent name matchup.
Fri - Cinci at Louisville might be worth a check in.
Saturday
Early Big Ten games only might be worth it for potential inclement weather football.
Texas at Kansas 11:30cst FSN HD - KU has tanked lately. A Texas loss would ripple across the Big 12 South.
South Carolina at Florida 3:30 eastern - CBS HD - the ole ball coach returns home.
That's it. A good weekend to put up Christmas lights.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Ring that bell Raiders
The ringing of the bell at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock is an odd sight but it's a small price to pay for a classic game with an unbelievable ending that will live on for generations of Tech fans. Texas looked spent after last week's OSU game and they certainly looked on fumes to start this one but I anticipated and got the inevitable comeback. So many what if's in this game.
What if the flag for illegal block in the back had not been picked up by the officials thereby nullifying the momentum booster TD punt return by Jordan Shipley (is this guy having a monster senior year or what?)? Maybe I didn't see the best angle or playback but I'm still clueless as to why the penalty was not enforced.
What if Michael Crabtree is not called for a pass interference with Tech inside the Texas 10 and threatening to seal the deal with a TD that would have put Tech up two possessions? Cheap call and raises the eyebrow of the conspiracy theorists that believe Texas gets the calls in the Big 12.
What if Blake Gideon holds on to a floating deflected pass that would have iced the game for the Longhorns and prevented the Crabtree heroics?
Tech was better than Texas last night. However, I would not be surprised to see Tech lose to Oklahoma State next Sat. The Pokes are solid but Tech may not be able to come down off Cloud Nine to focus enough on the task at hand. If the game was not in Lubbock, I would say bet the house on OSU. Oklahoma is trying to solve some issues on defense but their offense can outscore anybody and Tech has to visit Norman on November 22nd. Therefore, I think Penn State fans should stay calm over the latest developments.
Florida sure moved up in a hurry. They have been very impressive but maybe a tad bit of a kneejerk reaction. Remember, college football is like an HR department reviewing resumes and the Gators still have the home loss to Ole Miss as a strike. Maybe the SEC just isn't that good for a change. The defense argument has kind of fallen apart in recent weeks. Alabama's signature wins over Clemson and Georgia have lost their initial wow factor. Both are overrated.
I think Matthew Stafford has a bright future but maybe now the overhyping can stop. Gary Danielson tried to cheapen the Big 12 QBs last week and the respected Tony Barnhart called Stafford the best QB in college football last week in one of his columns. Stafford is not in the top tier of college QBs. Not talking about what he might do in a pro day or combine workout, just playing the actual game. Great physical tools but the consistency is still not there.
What if the flag for illegal block in the back had not been picked up by the officials thereby nullifying the momentum booster TD punt return by Jordan Shipley (is this guy having a monster senior year or what?)? Maybe I didn't see the best angle or playback but I'm still clueless as to why the penalty was not enforced.
What if Michael Crabtree is not called for a pass interference with Tech inside the Texas 10 and threatening to seal the deal with a TD that would have put Tech up two possessions? Cheap call and raises the eyebrow of the conspiracy theorists that believe Texas gets the calls in the Big 12.
What if Blake Gideon holds on to a floating deflected pass that would have iced the game for the Longhorns and prevented the Crabtree heroics?
Tech was better than Texas last night. However, I would not be surprised to see Tech lose to Oklahoma State next Sat. The Pokes are solid but Tech may not be able to come down off Cloud Nine to focus enough on the task at hand. If the game was not in Lubbock, I would say bet the house on OSU. Oklahoma is trying to solve some issues on defense but their offense can outscore anybody and Tech has to visit Norman on November 22nd. Therefore, I think Penn State fans should stay calm over the latest developments.
Florida sure moved up in a hurry. They have been very impressive but maybe a tad bit of a kneejerk reaction. Remember, college football is like an HR department reviewing resumes and the Gators still have the home loss to Ole Miss as a strike. Maybe the SEC just isn't that good for a change. The defense argument has kind of fallen apart in recent weeks. Alabama's signature wins over Clemson and Georgia have lost their initial wow factor. Both are overrated.
I think Matthew Stafford has a bright future but maybe now the overhyping can stop. Gary Danielson tried to cheapen the Big 12 QBs last week and the respected Tony Barnhart called Stafford the best QB in college football last week in one of his columns. Stafford is not in the top tier of college QBs. Not talking about what he might do in a pro day or combine workout, just playing the actual game. Great physical tools but the consistency is still not there.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Rankings and second half season distractions..
Rankings after the games of the weekend of Oct 25th
1. Texas - another highly ranked opponent, another win, although this one much tougher than the previous week. How much is left in the big-game tank and will playing in front of a hostile crowd make any difference?
2. Penn State - not the sharpest looking win at Ohio State but effective and the Buckeyes were rolling on offense before only scoring 6 against Penn State.
3. Alabama - avoided the upset trap at Tennessee. Saban's return to LSU is preceded by a "why is this game on the schedule for November 1st?" matchup with Arkansas State.
4. Florida - rolling into the game formerly known as the "World's Largest Cocktail Party"
5. Oklahoma State - The Cowboys are getting a lot of credit for never leading Texas but they proved they belong with their play in Austin.
6. Oklahoma - movement in the rankings reflect the trend of the defense since the loss of Ryan Reynolds - slipping big time. Back to back weeks of getting lit up by QBs from the Sunflower State. Good thing Sam Bradford is the better QB and the running game is back on track.
7. Texas Tech - the consensus overrated top ten team just a week ago. Defense showed up at Kansas. They are going to need a repeat performance to slow down McCoy enough for what should be a shootout in West Texas.
8. Georgia - is the payback for the TD celebration of a year ago coming this Saturday?
9. USC - didn't improve their stock with the trip to Arizona. Defense continues to shine. Offense just isn't as good as expected.
10. TCU - at Utah on November 6th should warrant national interest.
Tis the season of distractions. Early entry and coaching questions will heat up as the temperatures fall. Sam Bradford is already being asked about the potential to leave - will he bolt after his redshirt sophomore year? (I say not this year) How many coaches are being linked to the Washington post now that Willingham is officially out after the season? Will there be strong interest about Texas DC Will Muschamp?
1. Texas - another highly ranked opponent, another win, although this one much tougher than the previous week. How much is left in the big-game tank and will playing in front of a hostile crowd make any difference?
2. Penn State - not the sharpest looking win at Ohio State but effective and the Buckeyes were rolling on offense before only scoring 6 against Penn State.
3. Alabama - avoided the upset trap at Tennessee. Saban's return to LSU is preceded by a "why is this game on the schedule for November 1st?" matchup with Arkansas State.
4. Florida - rolling into the game formerly known as the "World's Largest Cocktail Party"
5. Oklahoma State - The Cowboys are getting a lot of credit for never leading Texas but they proved they belong with their play in Austin.
6. Oklahoma - movement in the rankings reflect the trend of the defense since the loss of Ryan Reynolds - slipping big time. Back to back weeks of getting lit up by QBs from the Sunflower State. Good thing Sam Bradford is the better QB and the running game is back on track.
7. Texas Tech - the consensus overrated top ten team just a week ago. Defense showed up at Kansas. They are going to need a repeat performance to slow down McCoy enough for what should be a shootout in West Texas.
8. Georgia - is the payback for the TD celebration of a year ago coming this Saturday?
9. USC - didn't improve their stock with the trip to Arizona. Defense continues to shine. Offense just isn't as good as expected.
10. TCU - at Utah on November 6th should warrant national interest.
Tis the season of distractions. Early entry and coaching questions will heat up as the temperatures fall. Sam Bradford is already being asked about the potential to leave - will he bolt after his redshirt sophomore year? (I say not this year) How many coaches are being linked to the Washington post now that Willingham is officially out after the season? Will there be strong interest about Texas DC Will Muschamp?
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
World Series of College Football Games
I may not watch a single inning of the World Series. In response, here are 7 games worth watching this Saturday.
Texas Tech at Kansas - 11a cent ESPN HD - Tech's first real challenge. KU coming off an impressive offensive performance (but yet a loss) at Oklahoma. Will the home field aid the defense to allow Reesing to outscore Harrell? The Big 12 arena league continues.
Kentucky at Florida - 11:30 cent Raycom HD - Florida seems to be the popular pick to rise from BCS #10 to the SEC championship and BCS title game. Gators have already been defeated at home by a lesser team.
Georgia at LSU 2:30 cent CBS HD - everyone chasing the spot of the one-loss SEC champ that couldn't be left out of the title game if teams at the top falter. Or could they?
Oklahoma State at Texas - 2:30 cent ABC (HD?) - another week, another highly ranked opponent for the Horns. Missouri was exposed. Is OSU about to get exposed like their benefactor T. Boone Pickens?
Alabama at Tennessee - 6:45p cent - ESPN HD - Alabama has looked shaky recently and now they have to go on the road minus monster DT Terrance Cody.
Penn State at Ohio State - 7p cent ABC HD - game of the day because BCS #3 is on the road in what should be their last obstacle to a perfect season.
USC at Arizona 9:15p cent / FSN HD - this might be the last chance for another upset of USC.
Texas Tech at Kansas - 11a cent ESPN HD - Tech's first real challenge. KU coming off an impressive offensive performance (but yet a loss) at Oklahoma. Will the home field aid the defense to allow Reesing to outscore Harrell? The Big 12 arena league continues.
Kentucky at Florida - 11:30 cent Raycom HD - Florida seems to be the popular pick to rise from BCS #10 to the SEC championship and BCS title game. Gators have already been defeated at home by a lesser team.
Georgia at LSU 2:30 cent CBS HD - everyone chasing the spot of the one-loss SEC champ that couldn't be left out of the title game if teams at the top falter. Or could they?
Oklahoma State at Texas - 2:30 cent ABC (HD?) - another week, another highly ranked opponent for the Horns. Missouri was exposed. Is OSU about to get exposed like their benefactor T. Boone Pickens?
Alabama at Tennessee - 6:45p cent - ESPN HD - Alabama has looked shaky recently and now they have to go on the road minus monster DT Terrance Cody.
Penn State at Ohio State - 7p cent ABC HD - game of the day because BCS #3 is on the road in what should be their last obstacle to a perfect season.
USC at Arizona 9:15p cent / FSN HD - this might be the last chance for another upset of USC.
Which is Worse: BCS or Donor Financing?
BCS rankings are out and lots of discussion. Texas and Alabama control their destiny but with obstacles. Can Texas keep it going against this tough slate? Sure looked like it on Saturday night. Missouri was exposed as a true pretender and while Oklahoma State still looks potent and improved on defense, are they next to get exposed? Are the Big 12 offenses that good or the defenses that bad? Stronger argument for the former with a quality group of QB that has never been rivaled in the league and probably won't for some time. The key is that many of these QBs are running sophisticated spread passing schemes in high school in the south.
All eyes on the highest one loss team since the assumption of more shake-up is the safest bet. Oklahoma is the highest for now but they might suffer the last minute snub by voters that push a one-loss SEC champ past them. Unlike some, I think USC will miss out due to the computer ranking. Their remaining schedule hurts while teams in the Big 12 and SEC have opportunities to enhance their resumes.
I like the BCS. I like the mid-season talk in college football. Already we are anticipating the impact of this week's games. This week's slate of NFL games - yawn. Wake me up when the playoffs begin.....without the Dallas Cowboys.
The economy is going to take a bit out of the arms race in college football. The big news may be what is going on at Oklahoma State, which was building a Dubai of athletic facilities from the $165 million donated by T. Boone Pickens. The money was donated and then reinvested in Pickens' hedge fund which has sustained substantial losses. Secrecy may be the rule but there is lots of smoke coming from Stillwater that Boone's failed gamble on oil prices may put OSU in a nightmare scenario. Oklahoma may lose a few million from Chesapeake exec Aubrey McClendon who had to sell tons of company stock to make a margin call. More articles about Pickens and the relationship between the economy and money collected at fundraisers will be forthcoming.
All eyes on the highest one loss team since the assumption of more shake-up is the safest bet. Oklahoma is the highest for now but they might suffer the last minute snub by voters that push a one-loss SEC champ past them. Unlike some, I think USC will miss out due to the computer ranking. Their remaining schedule hurts while teams in the Big 12 and SEC have opportunities to enhance their resumes.
I like the BCS. I like the mid-season talk in college football. Already we are anticipating the impact of this week's games. This week's slate of NFL games - yawn. Wake me up when the playoffs begin.....without the Dallas Cowboys.
The economy is going to take a bit out of the arms race in college football. The big news may be what is going on at Oklahoma State, which was building a Dubai of athletic facilities from the $165 million donated by T. Boone Pickens. The money was donated and then reinvested in Pickens' hedge fund which has sustained substantial losses. Secrecy may be the rule but there is lots of smoke coming from Stillwater that Boone's failed gamble on oil prices may put OSU in a nightmare scenario. Oklahoma may lose a few million from Chesapeake exec Aubrey McClendon who had to sell tons of company stock to make a margin call. More articles about Pickens and the relationship between the economy and money collected at fundraisers will be forthcoming.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Red River Rivalry Recap
As a long-time Sooner fan and alumnus, I am still stunned by the outcome of Saturday's clash in Dallas. This was a game that Bob Stoops was supposed to win. The highest ranked team had won every meeting since 1996. (The lower ranked Horns were actually favored in 2000 through 2002.) Stoops was 6-0 against Mack Brown with a top ten team. Mack Brown had only beaten one ranked OU team in his tenure. Oklahoma was better on paper (although not by much) but Texas was better on the field. It was a game in which the often criticized Greg Davis was the coach that had the greatest impact on the game with his game plan.
Texas won because they outcoached and outplayed the Sooners. In a game of relative equals, it's about finding weaknesses. Texas won because they exploited all three of the Sooners' main weaknesses. 1) Special teams 2) Lack of a running game and 3) Lack of LB depth
Special Teams
Jordan Shipley's kick return TD may have saved Texas from an early knockout attempt by the Sooners. The TD not only closed the gap from 14-3 to 14-10 but more importantly it was a Texas-sized can of Red Bull momentum. From that point on, the Texas crowd believed and the their team responded to every lead by the Sooners.
The other key special teams play was Bob Stoops rolling the dice with a fake punt still up 28-27. I personally did not like the call given the circumstances of being up one and having the opportunity to nail Texas inside their own 10 with a good punt. Texas was rolling on offense but I still thought back them up and give your defense more opportunities to make a play or two that might result in a stop. Even if they score, you have time and the confidence your offense will retake the lead.
The fake punt call had too much momentum riding on it for Texas and not enough for Oklahoma. If the Sooners make it and score a TD, assuming they kick the extra point to go up 35-27, Texas could still tie the game with one drive. If the Sooners were up 2 or 3 points and the score would have put them up 2 scores on Texas, then I might see the payoff on such a gamble. (Maybe Stoops would have elected to go for 2 to increase the lead to 9 but most coaches would prefer an extra point for an 8 point lead and force the other team to convert a 2-point conversion just to tie).
I had more of a problem with the design of the fake punt. The success of the play was dependent on a punter running for more yards than DeMarco Murray's longest run from scrimmage since the opener against Tenn-Chatt. It was 4th and 6 but you have to account for the yardage the punter has to make up from where he catches the snap. It's about 15 yards or so. He nearly made it but he nearly got tackled twice earlier in his run. Going back to OU's fake punt against Alabama in 2003, that was a better design because the punter simply had to execute a lob over one defender to a capable ball carrier who was expected to be all alone based on film study.
Lack of a Running Game
Something is just not right with Oklahoma's run game both in the guys blocking and the guy carrying the ball. OU's OL can pass block with the best but they are lacking a surge off the ball. DeMarco Murray showed his speed on a catch out of the backfield in the first quarter and on two second half kick returns. The problem is that he needs a lot of run to get going. He doesn't have the acceleration of a year ago and he looks to run into tackles as crazy as it sounds.
Because OU could not run the ball effectively, the play action element was all but gone and short yardage was more based on execution than simple power football. Credit Bradford for an outstanding performance in and out of the pocket but when it came down to it - Texas broke a couple of runs to make the difference even though OU was supposed to have the better line and the better backs.
LB depth
The one player that Oklahoma could not lose on defense was Ryan Reynolds. Reynolds was finally healthy off 2 knee surgeries and playing so well people no longer thought what might have been had Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Curtis Lofton had stayed for his senior year. The Sooners other two LBs were playing far beyond expectations but Reynolds was the heart and soul of the defense and lined everyone up. The loss of Reynolds was a huge in the second half. Texas was already having success with an offensive gameplan they had not used in 8 years which worked the middle of the field but it was made even more effective with Reynolds out. Credit OC Greg Davis and Colt McCoy for spotting the weakness and taking advantage of it. There is no doubt in my mind that the late big run that sealed the game for Texas with a subsequent TD for Texas doesn't go for more than 5 yards if Reynolds is on the field because his inexperienced replacement was a step away from making the tackle but there were several plays that Texas made to ultimately win the game.
The game was labeled as a classic, which is really was, but it doesn't feel that way for fans of the losing team.
Texas won because they outcoached and outplayed the Sooners. In a game of relative equals, it's about finding weaknesses. Texas won because they exploited all three of the Sooners' main weaknesses. 1) Special teams 2) Lack of a running game and 3) Lack of LB depth
Special Teams
Jordan Shipley's kick return TD may have saved Texas from an early knockout attempt by the Sooners. The TD not only closed the gap from 14-3 to 14-10 but more importantly it was a Texas-sized can of Red Bull momentum. From that point on, the Texas crowd believed and the their team responded to every lead by the Sooners.
The other key special teams play was Bob Stoops rolling the dice with a fake punt still up 28-27. I personally did not like the call given the circumstances of being up one and having the opportunity to nail Texas inside their own 10 with a good punt. Texas was rolling on offense but I still thought back them up and give your defense more opportunities to make a play or two that might result in a stop. Even if they score, you have time and the confidence your offense will retake the lead.
The fake punt call had too much momentum riding on it for Texas and not enough for Oklahoma. If the Sooners make it and score a TD, assuming they kick the extra point to go up 35-27, Texas could still tie the game with one drive. If the Sooners were up 2 or 3 points and the score would have put them up 2 scores on Texas, then I might see the payoff on such a gamble. (Maybe Stoops would have elected to go for 2 to increase the lead to 9 but most coaches would prefer an extra point for an 8 point lead and force the other team to convert a 2-point conversion just to tie).
I had more of a problem with the design of the fake punt. The success of the play was dependent on a punter running for more yards than DeMarco Murray's longest run from scrimmage since the opener against Tenn-Chatt. It was 4th and 6 but you have to account for the yardage the punter has to make up from where he catches the snap. It's about 15 yards or so. He nearly made it but he nearly got tackled twice earlier in his run. Going back to OU's fake punt against Alabama in 2003, that was a better design because the punter simply had to execute a lob over one defender to a capable ball carrier who was expected to be all alone based on film study.
Lack of a Running Game
Something is just not right with Oklahoma's run game both in the guys blocking and the guy carrying the ball. OU's OL can pass block with the best but they are lacking a surge off the ball. DeMarco Murray showed his speed on a catch out of the backfield in the first quarter and on two second half kick returns. The problem is that he needs a lot of run to get going. He doesn't have the acceleration of a year ago and he looks to run into tackles as crazy as it sounds.
Because OU could not run the ball effectively, the play action element was all but gone and short yardage was more based on execution than simple power football. Credit Bradford for an outstanding performance in and out of the pocket but when it came down to it - Texas broke a couple of runs to make the difference even though OU was supposed to have the better line and the better backs.
LB depth
The one player that Oklahoma could not lose on defense was Ryan Reynolds. Reynolds was finally healthy off 2 knee surgeries and playing so well people no longer thought what might have been had Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Curtis Lofton had stayed for his senior year. The Sooners other two LBs were playing far beyond expectations but Reynolds was the heart and soul of the defense and lined everyone up. The loss of Reynolds was a huge in the second half. Texas was already having success with an offensive gameplan they had not used in 8 years which worked the middle of the field but it was made even more effective with Reynolds out. Credit OC Greg Davis and Colt McCoy for spotting the weakness and taking advantage of it. There is no doubt in my mind that the late big run that sealed the game for Texas with a subsequent TD for Texas doesn't go for more than 5 yards if Reynolds is on the field because his inexperienced replacement was a step away from making the tackle but there were several plays that Texas made to ultimately win the game.
The game was labeled as a classic, which is really was, but it doesn't feel that way for fans of the losing team.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Big Game Bob
If there is one game that has defined the Bob Stoops era, it's the Red River Rivalry. In Stoops' first OU-Texas game, the Sooners jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead before Texas rallied for a 38-28 win. It was a pattern that would repeat itself several times during Oklahoma's rebuilding year of 1999 - double digit lead that ended up with a loss. That was a different time. After a decade of futility, it was viewed as encouraging progress.
The Stoops mystique over the rival Horns began in 2000 as the Sooners rolled Mack Brown into a Texas-sized apology with a 63-14 beatdown. Oklahoma was ranked 10th, Texas 11th. The Sooners would go on to beat No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Nebraska in consecutive games to reclaim the school's first top ranking since 1987. Oklahoma held on to the No. 1 ranking for the remainder of the season and claimed the national title.
The Sooners went on to win five consecutive games (2000-2004) that featured three games where both teams were ranked in the top five and two blowouts when Texas was ranked around 11th. Oklahoma endured an unexpected rebuilding year in 2005 due to the combination of departing seniors from the '04 squad and the impact of unusual attrition in some highly ranked recruiting classes. Texas ended up cruising through a weak Big 12 but topping USC in a game for the ages.
During the nine matchups between Stoops and Brown, Texas has only defeated a ranked Oklahoma team once in 2006. The #14 Sooners actually outgained Texas by 100 yards but the Longhorns won the turnover battle 4-0 and forced timely key plays that resulted in a victory.
The winner of this game has won the Big 12 South during the Stoops era. Only twice has the loser appeared in the conference championship game - 2001 and 2006. In 2001, Oklahoma lost to Nebraska and then dropped a second game to Oklahoma State - one of the two home losses in the Stoops era. Texas dropped their final two games of the '06 season to allow Oklahoma to claim the South by beating Oklahoma 27-21 in Stillwater.
Stoops has definitely had the upper hand in a matchup of two of the top coaches in college football. Both have national titles but Stoops has 5 conference titles to one for Mack Brown. Some would argue that the phenom of Vince Young deserves all the credit but Brown did bring him and defensive coordinator Gene Chizik (present for both of UT's wins over OU) to Austin. Bob Stoops has 5 conference titles with 5 different QB and while two were national award winners, none of the previous 4 had NFL staying power.
The Stoops mystique over the rival Horns began in 2000 as the Sooners rolled Mack Brown into a Texas-sized apology with a 63-14 beatdown. Oklahoma was ranked 10th, Texas 11th. The Sooners would go on to beat No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Nebraska in consecutive games to reclaim the school's first top ranking since 1987. Oklahoma held on to the No. 1 ranking for the remainder of the season and claimed the national title.
The Sooners went on to win five consecutive games (2000-2004) that featured three games where both teams were ranked in the top five and two blowouts when Texas was ranked around 11th. Oklahoma endured an unexpected rebuilding year in 2005 due to the combination of departing seniors from the '04 squad and the impact of unusual attrition in some highly ranked recruiting classes. Texas ended up cruising through a weak Big 12 but topping USC in a game for the ages.
During the nine matchups between Stoops and Brown, Texas has only defeated a ranked Oklahoma team once in 2006. The #14 Sooners actually outgained Texas by 100 yards but the Longhorns won the turnover battle 4-0 and forced timely key plays that resulted in a victory.
The winner of this game has won the Big 12 South during the Stoops era. Only twice has the loser appeared in the conference championship game - 2001 and 2006. In 2001, Oklahoma lost to Nebraska and then dropped a second game to Oklahoma State - one of the two home losses in the Stoops era. Texas dropped their final two games of the '06 season to allow Oklahoma to claim the South by beating Oklahoma 27-21 in Stillwater.
Stoops has definitely had the upper hand in a matchup of two of the top coaches in college football. Both have national titles but Stoops has 5 conference titles to one for Mack Brown. Some would argue that the phenom of Vince Young deserves all the credit but Brown did bring him and defensive coordinator Gene Chizik (present for both of UT's wins over OU) to Austin. Bob Stoops has 5 conference titles with 5 different QB and while two were national award winners, none of the previous 4 had NFL staying power.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
The fallout continues..
The Cocktail Party just lost some luster. Florida and Georgia go down - both at home - both to conference foes. It brings up a point that was emphasized in the aftermath of USC's loss to Oregon State - conference play brings upsets. Conference opponents know each other better and are not intimidated....and its just getting started.
Who's No. 1? Oklahoma says the polls although the argument has been made for Alabama due to their impressive wins. The Clemson win doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did at the time but I'm willing to put some stock in the moment. Georgia was exposed as a fraud - at least for now - but it was a solid win for Alabama.
No opponent has even come close to even putting a mild scare in Oklahoma. Cincinnati isn't going to help the Sooners in strength of schedule because the 17 starters or so they had back from a 10 win team last year is in trouble as their top 2 QBs have gone down. Washington isn't going to help the Sooners or Tyrone Willingham's job status now that Jake Locker is out for most or all of the season. TCU was a pretty solid team and we shall see how they fare in conference.
Both Oklahoma and Alabama have solid lines and good skill players. The big difference is at QB. Kudos to John Parker Wilson for a nice start but there is no neutral observer that would pick Wilson over Sam Bradford.
Both the Sooners and the Tide are going to face challenges in tough conferences. One thing to watch - the Tide's win over Georgia and the subsequent No. 2 ranking has turned them from the hunter into the hunted. The Tide has a long history of championship football but this group has not experienced what they are about to face with exposure, pressure and the bullseye. Not a knock because a lot of teams that have experience in the VIP room of rankings haven't handled the spotlight well lately.
Oklahoma has to watch out but they have the best draw imaginable given the circumstances. Texas is neutral. Kansas and Tech is in Norman. The road games is where OU has tripped up but K-State and A&M? I thought they were trap games a few weeks ago but not right now. The Bedlam game could be huge in Stillwater but the more people talk about an upset there, the more unlikely it is to happen.
A lot of people are already anticipating a Red River Rivalry showdown between a pair of top five teams but Texas needs to watch out. They are in the exact same spot at Oklahoma last year before they were upset in Boulder. The Longhorns have not been tested and although they will say the right things, it wouldn't be tough to suggest they might be looking ahead to the game in Dallas, especially after Colorado's pathetic performance at Florida State in which the Noles score 39 points. This is the ultimate trap game because Colorado will rebound at home. It may not be enough but Texas will be tested on Saturday.
Oklahoma's box score against TCU looked solid - the score and passing yards anyway. Here's thinking the Sooners' offensive line is going to get lit up in practice after averaging 0.7 yards against TCU's defense. TCU sold out to stop the run - really sold out - and left the big pass play wide open. But the Sooners' massive and talented OL should have at least opened enough creases to spring their backs for some decent gains against an overly aggressive defense. Baylor's elusive freshman QB Robert Griffin will get the Sooners attention in the film room.
Who's No. 1? Oklahoma says the polls although the argument has been made for Alabama due to their impressive wins. The Clemson win doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did at the time but I'm willing to put some stock in the moment. Georgia was exposed as a fraud - at least for now - but it was a solid win for Alabama.
No opponent has even come close to even putting a mild scare in Oklahoma. Cincinnati isn't going to help the Sooners in strength of schedule because the 17 starters or so they had back from a 10 win team last year is in trouble as their top 2 QBs have gone down. Washington isn't going to help the Sooners or Tyrone Willingham's job status now that Jake Locker is out for most or all of the season. TCU was a pretty solid team and we shall see how they fare in conference.
Both Oklahoma and Alabama have solid lines and good skill players. The big difference is at QB. Kudos to John Parker Wilson for a nice start but there is no neutral observer that would pick Wilson over Sam Bradford.
Both the Sooners and the Tide are going to face challenges in tough conferences. One thing to watch - the Tide's win over Georgia and the subsequent No. 2 ranking has turned them from the hunter into the hunted. The Tide has a long history of championship football but this group has not experienced what they are about to face with exposure, pressure and the bullseye. Not a knock because a lot of teams that have experience in the VIP room of rankings haven't handled the spotlight well lately.
Oklahoma has to watch out but they have the best draw imaginable given the circumstances. Texas is neutral. Kansas and Tech is in Norman. The road games is where OU has tripped up but K-State and A&M? I thought they were trap games a few weeks ago but not right now. The Bedlam game could be huge in Stillwater but the more people talk about an upset there, the more unlikely it is to happen.
A lot of people are already anticipating a Red River Rivalry showdown between a pair of top five teams but Texas needs to watch out. They are in the exact same spot at Oklahoma last year before they were upset in Boulder. The Longhorns have not been tested and although they will say the right things, it wouldn't be tough to suggest they might be looking ahead to the game in Dallas, especially after Colorado's pathetic performance at Florida State in which the Noles score 39 points. This is the ultimate trap game because Colorado will rebound at home. It may not be enough but Texas will be tested on Saturday.
Oklahoma's box score against TCU looked solid - the score and passing yards anyway. Here's thinking the Sooners' offensive line is going to get lit up in practice after averaging 0.7 yards against TCU's defense. TCU sold out to stop the run - really sold out - and left the big pass play wide open. But the Sooners' massive and talented OL should have at least opened enough creases to spring their backs for some decent gains against an overly aggressive defense. Baylor's elusive freshman QB Robert Griffin will get the Sooners attention in the film room.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
U-S-C you later....
Just when you think it won't happen - it does. USC was supposed to cruise through a weak Pac-10 schedule. In fact, throughout this week the talk was whether or not the weak Pac-10 would cost USC a title game spot in a BCS beauty contest. Before the season, I thought this might be the one game USC might have trouble. Not Ohio State. Oregon State. It's about timing, setting and circumstances. For the last 10 days or so, USC has read about how great they are in the media. Some experts even starting putting Mark Sanchez in the Heisman race. USC took the Ohio State game seriously. Tonight's game is the type of game we see an elite team show up flat because they just aren't that fired up.
Make no mistake - this should be the loss that effectively eliminates USC from the national title hunt UNLESS the SEC and Big 12 champ has more than two losses. This is another bad loss and Carroll (who I still consider to be the best coach in college football) needs to get a ton of criticism. Oregon State lost the opener to Stanford and then got rolled by Penn State. There is no way that USC should elevate any Big 12 or SEC team with the same number of losses at the end of the season.
Tonight is what separates college football's regular season from all others. There is NOTHING like this in the NFL regular season. Not even close. This is why the system may frustrate but it's also great for the regular season. If not for the system, USC simply captures another Pac-10 title and gets a playoff spot. Tonight's game is a footnote instead of a shocking development that turned the college football world over.
It will be interesting to see how Oklahoma responds this weekend against TCU knowing that a win puts them at No. 1. If the Sooners are ranked No. 1 next week, I believe they would take the lead in most weeks at No. 1 of all time passing Notre Dame.
Make no mistake - this should be the loss that effectively eliminates USC from the national title hunt UNLESS the SEC and Big 12 champ has more than two losses. This is another bad loss and Carroll (who I still consider to be the best coach in college football) needs to get a ton of criticism. Oregon State lost the opener to Stanford and then got rolled by Penn State. There is no way that USC should elevate any Big 12 or SEC team with the same number of losses at the end of the season.
Tonight is what separates college football's regular season from all others. There is NOTHING like this in the NFL regular season. Not even close. This is why the system may frustrate but it's also great for the regular season. If not for the system, USC simply captures another Pac-10 title and gets a playoff spot. Tonight's game is a footnote instead of a shocking development that turned the college football world over.
It will be interesting to see how Oklahoma responds this weekend against TCU knowing that a win puts them at No. 1. If the Sooners are ranked No. 1 next week, I believe they would take the lead in most weeks at No. 1 of all time passing Notre Dame.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Get your errands done early Saturday..
The Big Ten loves brunch football but nothing that should cause you pause unless you are a fan of such team. Some of the media was trying to play up the Alabama at Arkansas game. I don't think people realize just how mediocre the Razorbacks are right now. If not for Ike, Texas would have rolled them into obsurcity last week.
The only early afternoon game of interest is Florida at Tennessee (3:30e/2:30c CBS HD). Florida probably was set to face medium resistance from an average Tennessee team in Knoxville and then some comments got out that Gators questioned the Vols' pride last year. I would not be surprised if Tennessee rose up and made it a four quarter affair. The Gator offense needs to get back on track after a subpar effort vs. Miami.
Speaking of Miami, they travel to Texas A&M in a game of names only. I would be more interested to get some of the Canes mic-ed up. Those guys from South Florida have never seen anything like the bizarre scene in College Station.
If Notre Dame beats Michigan State, are they really headed to a bounce back season? I know they are 2-0 but it's the weakest 2-0 in the country outside of Arkansas.
Florida State has an opportunity to get back on the radar by defeating Wake Forest tonight in Tallahassee. The Noles have struggled due to poor QB play for several years but it looks like they might have something - maybe. The ACC stinks anyway.
What's the over-under on TDs tonight in the LSU at Auburn game? Two?
Is Arizona State more dangerous after losing to UNLV last week? They certainly don't have anyone on the bandwagon now. There is no pressure on Arizona State. Georgia has looked vulnerable. The Dawgs are better on paper but this one could go a number of different ways. Likely result: Georgia by a late FG.
The only early afternoon game of interest is Florida at Tennessee (3:30e/2:30c CBS HD). Florida probably was set to face medium resistance from an average Tennessee team in Knoxville and then some comments got out that Gators questioned the Vols' pride last year. I would not be surprised if Tennessee rose up and made it a four quarter affair. The Gator offense needs to get back on track after a subpar effort vs. Miami.
Speaking of Miami, they travel to Texas A&M in a game of names only. I would be more interested to get some of the Canes mic-ed up. Those guys from South Florida have never seen anything like the bizarre scene in College Station.
If Notre Dame beats Michigan State, are they really headed to a bounce back season? I know they are 2-0 but it's the weakest 2-0 in the country outside of Arkansas.
Florida State has an opportunity to get back on the radar by defeating Wake Forest tonight in Tallahassee. The Noles have struggled due to poor QB play for several years but it looks like they might have something - maybe. The ACC stinks anyway.
What's the over-under on TDs tonight in the LSU at Auburn game? Two?
Is Arizona State more dangerous after losing to UNLV last week? They certainly don't have anyone on the bandwagon now. There is no pressure on Arizona State. Georgia has looked vulnerable. The Dawgs are better on paper but this one could go a number of different ways. Likely result: Georgia by a late FG.
Monday, September 15, 2008
The perfect setup for a national title
It doesn't appear that USC will face much resistance the remainder of the season. They might get a scare if they overlook an opponent with some talent but they should be upset-proof in a mediocre Pac-10 conference. Most of the in-conference teams that might be able to hang for a while (with breaks) have to visit the Coliseum. Just don't see another Stanford.
USC has been brilliant in BCS games under Carroll. The loss to Texas was a classic game and the result of a super-human performance by Vince Young and the Longhorn defense stopping the inside run on the defining play of the game.
However, the USC players talked about complacency as the cause of last year's Stanford loss. They vow it won't happen again and it probably won't in the regular season. The question is that if USC cruises through a weak Pac-10, could it re-appear before the title game? No doubt ESPN will build them up as a candidate for greatest of all time - as they did before the Texas game.
Time and time again we see teams that have it too easy get overconfident, lose focus and are stunned at the first sign of a challenge. There is no way Oklahoma should have lost to Arkansas in the late 70s. No way Miami should have lost to Penn State in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl. Overconfidence played a role in Alabama's shocking upset over Miami in the early 1990s or Florida State's inept performance against Oklahoma in the 2001 Orange Bowl.
The best recipe for a team other than USC to win a national title is for the challenger to become battle tested through a tougher conference to counter the Carroll's post-season mojo. Right now the prime contender seems to be the winner of a potential Big 12 title game with Oklahoma/Missouri or perhaps the winner of Georgia/Florida. That rounds out the current top 5. Don't worry about the polls and a snub so early in the year.
Oklahoma's schedule is more favorable than Georgia's as they play Texas on a neutral field like the Bulldogs do with the Gators. However, quality and potentially dangerous teams Kansas and Texas Tech have to play in Norman. The Sooners have been extremely vulnerable on the road in recent years. 1-2 last year with the win being a near disaster against a poor Iowa State team. Saturday was a sign this Oklahoma team might be different. I think every rational Sooner fan expected some kind of struggle - at least early. Instead, the Sooners cruised in every way possible. Sam Bradford, who actually looked like a rookie on the road last year, looked as calm and cool as he would have in Norman. Oklahoma is virtually unbeatable in Norman but it looks like they are going to take more of their A or B game on the road to upset-minded K-State, A&M and Oklahoma State.
Missouri continues to roll up PlayStation type numbers and they have a favorable schedule outside of the trip to Austin which they have to win to get into the national title mix. The Tigers are a confident bunch and I'm sure they would prefer to see Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game to get over that hurdle and get a lot of respect.
Georgia has potential but they did not impress on Saturday. Still, it's early and the schedule is there to make an impression. Matthew Stafford is a quality player but still does not belong in the category of elite college QBs right now. The Bulldogs got a major break with the fumble that prevented a potential OT game. Florida did not look sharp against Miami but they have the talent and a somewhat favorable draw in the SEC this year.
If USC ends up playing Oklahoma, I can easily see a scenario in which the consensus and the Trojans themselves think it will be a cakewalk because of what happened in the 2005 Orange Bowl. All things considered, it would be the best scenario for what would be a battle-tested Oklahoma club that plays well with a chip on their shoulder. Georgia or Florida probably would not be as overlooked by USC. Hard to say with Missouri.
So far the upsets don't seem to be a lot of flukes like last year, just confirming that the polls need to be adjusted. We'll see. Lots of football to be played.
USC has been brilliant in BCS games under Carroll. The loss to Texas was a classic game and the result of a super-human performance by Vince Young and the Longhorn defense stopping the inside run on the defining play of the game.
However, the USC players talked about complacency as the cause of last year's Stanford loss. They vow it won't happen again and it probably won't in the regular season. The question is that if USC cruises through a weak Pac-10, could it re-appear before the title game? No doubt ESPN will build them up as a candidate for greatest of all time - as they did before the Texas game.
Time and time again we see teams that have it too easy get overconfident, lose focus and are stunned at the first sign of a challenge. There is no way Oklahoma should have lost to Arkansas in the late 70s. No way Miami should have lost to Penn State in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl. Overconfidence played a role in Alabama's shocking upset over Miami in the early 1990s or Florida State's inept performance against Oklahoma in the 2001 Orange Bowl.
The best recipe for a team other than USC to win a national title is for the challenger to become battle tested through a tougher conference to counter the Carroll's post-season mojo. Right now the prime contender seems to be the winner of a potential Big 12 title game with Oklahoma/Missouri or perhaps the winner of Georgia/Florida. That rounds out the current top 5. Don't worry about the polls and a snub so early in the year.
Oklahoma's schedule is more favorable than Georgia's as they play Texas on a neutral field like the Bulldogs do with the Gators. However, quality and potentially dangerous teams Kansas and Texas Tech have to play in Norman. The Sooners have been extremely vulnerable on the road in recent years. 1-2 last year with the win being a near disaster against a poor Iowa State team. Saturday was a sign this Oklahoma team might be different. I think every rational Sooner fan expected some kind of struggle - at least early. Instead, the Sooners cruised in every way possible. Sam Bradford, who actually looked like a rookie on the road last year, looked as calm and cool as he would have in Norman. Oklahoma is virtually unbeatable in Norman but it looks like they are going to take more of their A or B game on the road to upset-minded K-State, A&M and Oklahoma State.
Missouri continues to roll up PlayStation type numbers and they have a favorable schedule outside of the trip to Austin which they have to win to get into the national title mix. The Tigers are a confident bunch and I'm sure they would prefer to see Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game to get over that hurdle and get a lot of respect.
Georgia has potential but they did not impress on Saturday. Still, it's early and the schedule is there to make an impression. Matthew Stafford is a quality player but still does not belong in the category of elite college QBs right now. The Bulldogs got a major break with the fumble that prevented a potential OT game. Florida did not look sharp against Miami but they have the talent and a somewhat favorable draw in the SEC this year.
If USC ends up playing Oklahoma, I can easily see a scenario in which the consensus and the Trojans themselves think it will be a cakewalk because of what happened in the 2005 Orange Bowl. All things considered, it would be the best scenario for what would be a battle-tested Oklahoma club that plays well with a chip on their shoulder. Georgia or Florida probably would not be as overlooked by USC. Hard to say with Missouri.
So far the upsets don't seem to be a lot of flukes like last year, just confirming that the polls need to be adjusted. We'll see. Lots of football to be played.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
No Doubt on 1 and 2
USC is No. 1. Oklahoma is No. 2. Period.
Things change in college football so don't put this matchup in ink for the BCS title game. You might be able to put USC in ink though. Outside of the Trojans, the Pac-10 teams are almost as much a disgrace as the conference's officials. I don't think Oklahoma is traveling out to the west coast anytime soon. I don't think Tyrone Willingham will have to worry about Pac-10 officiating much longer. I have never seen so many cheap penalties in one game. Oklahoma was tabbed for 114 yards of penalties. Only 8 for Washington.
USC and Oklahoma look scary good. The Trojans look to be the more complete team but Oklahoma's no huddle offense might be an equalizer. The Sooners have the lines to compete with anyone. Sam Bradford is the Tom Brady of college football and the Sooners are loaded with weapons. We know things change quickly but no team is in the same zip code as the Trojans and the Sooners tonight.
I thought USC might need to watch out for the trip to Oregon State. No more. I don't see any team even challenging USC from here on out - but is that a good thing? We have seen plenty of college football teams cruise through the season only to lay an egg in their bowl game. USC doesn't lay eggs in January. That is a burden Oklahoma has to lift off its back.
I think tonight puts to rest any fears of Ohio State getting back to the national title game. Even as crazy as college football is with upsets and the reshuffling of the top ten of a year ago, no way do the voters allow the Buckeyes to work their way through the Big Ten to sneak back up into one of the top 2 positions.
Things change in college football so don't put this matchup in ink for the BCS title game. You might be able to put USC in ink though. Outside of the Trojans, the Pac-10 teams are almost as much a disgrace as the conference's officials. I don't think Oklahoma is traveling out to the west coast anytime soon. I don't think Tyrone Willingham will have to worry about Pac-10 officiating much longer. I have never seen so many cheap penalties in one game. Oklahoma was tabbed for 114 yards of penalties. Only 8 for Washington.
USC and Oklahoma look scary good. The Trojans look to be the more complete team but Oklahoma's no huddle offense might be an equalizer. The Sooners have the lines to compete with anyone. Sam Bradford is the Tom Brady of college football and the Sooners are loaded with weapons. We know things change quickly but no team is in the same zip code as the Trojans and the Sooners tonight.
I thought USC might need to watch out for the trip to Oregon State. No more. I don't see any team even challenging USC from here on out - but is that a good thing? We have seen plenty of college football teams cruise through the season only to lay an egg in their bowl game. USC doesn't lay eggs in January. That is a burden Oklahoma has to lift off its back.
I think tonight puts to rest any fears of Ohio State getting back to the national title game. Even as crazy as college football is with upsets and the reshuffling of the top ten of a year ago, no way do the voters allow the Buckeyes to work their way through the Big Ten to sneak back up into one of the top 2 positions.
Letdown in the Coliseum?
The Beanie Wells situation following Ohio State's struggle to beat Ohio last week at home has really taken some of the punch out of this matchup. I tend to go against the grain of conventional logic at times. The consensus probably thinks USC will roll and there is a good chance of that but time and time again we see a closer game or an upset because the favorite gets overconfident and the underdog plays with a chip on their shoulder.
Ohio State has a lot of talent on offense. The problem is that Todd Boeckman simply has not played well against good to great competition. The goal was to lean on Beanie Wells to slow down the pace of the game, move the sticks and take pressure of Boeckman in the passing game. Now, Ohio State has to be creative early unless the Buckeye defense creates some early turnovers. Tressel has to allow some of the younger backs with more play making ability than veteran Mo Wells the ability to make an impact. Tressel has to mix in Terrelle Pryor at the right time to possibly shake up USC's defensive approach.
Any chance for Ohio State begins with their defense in slowing the USC run game and putting Sanchez in predictable passing situations. Virginia provided no test for USC's inexperienced offensive line. We don't know much about them yet but we will find out tonight. If the Buckeyes can pressure Sanchez, the game may play out much different than some people think.
USC looked sharp in the opener but Sanchez had no pressure. Too many people only look at one side of an outcome. Virginia looks to be one of the worst teams in a bad conference. The Cavs are a far cry from the decent group that had Texas Tech on the ropes in the Gator Bowl. That group had Chris Long coming off the edge.
I might stick up for Ohio State more than most people that comment on college football but if the Buckeyes get blown out, I hope and expect the voters see to it that the Buckeyes have no shot to work their way back to the title game through the Big Ten schedule.
Ohio State has a lot of talent on offense. The problem is that Todd Boeckman simply has not played well against good to great competition. The goal was to lean on Beanie Wells to slow down the pace of the game, move the sticks and take pressure of Boeckman in the passing game. Now, Ohio State has to be creative early unless the Buckeye defense creates some early turnovers. Tressel has to allow some of the younger backs with more play making ability than veteran Mo Wells the ability to make an impact. Tressel has to mix in Terrelle Pryor at the right time to possibly shake up USC's defensive approach.
Any chance for Ohio State begins with their defense in slowing the USC run game and putting Sanchez in predictable passing situations. Virginia provided no test for USC's inexperienced offensive line. We don't know much about them yet but we will find out tonight. If the Buckeyes can pressure Sanchez, the game may play out much different than some people think.
USC looked sharp in the opener but Sanchez had no pressure. Too many people only look at one side of an outcome. Virginia looks to be one of the worst teams in a bad conference. The Cavs are a far cry from the decent group that had Texas Tech on the ropes in the Gator Bowl. That group had Chris Long coming off the edge.
I might stick up for Ohio State more than most people that comment on college football but if the Buckeyes get blown out, I hope and expect the voters see to it that the Buckeyes have no shot to work their way back to the title game through the Big Ten schedule.
The Big Least gets off the mat...for now
I'll admit, I lost temporary interest in last night's ESPN2 showdown between Kansas and S. Florida after the Jayhawks jumped out to a quick lead and looked like it was just going to get worse. USF scored the all important TD before the half to keep them mentally in the game and they owned the 3rd quarter. Kansas came back but QB Todd Reesing made a late game mental error by sending a deep ball into the middle of the field without recognizing the safety playing center field. The pick and subsequent return setup the Bulls for the last second win. Reesing has been a gamer but a mistakes like that can linger in the mind for a while. I'm glad I paid enough attention to watch the finish because it was a great college football game.
The stock of Rutgers and coach Greg Schiano is dropping fast. The opening loss to Fresno at home was a mild surprise but a blowout loss to North Carolina at home? Butch Davis is quickly improving the Tar Heel program with some good looking talent at the skill positions and an attitude on defense but the Scarlet Knights looked clueless on defense.
Less than a week after West Virginia gets humbled by East Carolina, the folks in Morgantown sign up Bill Stewart to a 6-year contract extension. Interesting timing. Credit the WV admin for showing support but the consensus of college football fans think they will end up playing this man for several years after they release him. This is Larry Coker all over again except the decline is already happening. At least Coker won a title and nearly another one with program Butch Davis rebuilt before the decline.
The stock of Rutgers and coach Greg Schiano is dropping fast. The opening loss to Fresno at home was a mild surprise but a blowout loss to North Carolina at home? Butch Davis is quickly improving the Tar Heel program with some good looking talent at the skill positions and an attitude on defense but the Scarlet Knights looked clueless on defense.
Less than a week after West Virginia gets humbled by East Carolina, the folks in Morgantown sign up Bill Stewart to a 6-year contract extension. Interesting timing. Credit the WV admin for showing support but the consensus of college football fans think they will end up playing this man for several years after they release him. This is Larry Coker all over again except the decline is already happening. At least Coker won a title and nearly another one with program Butch Davis rebuilt before the decline.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Review of Week 2
Not a great slate of games on Week 2 but interesting nonetheless.
East Carolina stunned West Virginia. There was an upset buzz on this game from East Carolina's 'upset' over Virginia Tech in the opener but only a few took the bait. The real shocker was the score. 3 points for West Virginia with Pat White at the controls? The Neers will bounce back for this season but Bill Stewart is Larry Coker all over again except the fall will be quicker.
Ohio State struggles to get past Ohio. This is the classic look ahead performance. I really can't decide whether or not USC is going to blowout the Buckeyes in LA. I think conventional logic would suggest yes, but college football doesn't follow that path. Right now, everyone is doubting Ohio State and USC has been told how great they are and they might be thinking they are going to cruise. The Buckeyes would be advised to keep their mouth shut but earlier WR Ray Small questions USC's class. Bottom line, if Ohio State does get thumped, they shall not appear even close to the top two spots in the land at season's end. I think the voters will see to it.
Oklahoma's fast break no-huddle offense might be the missing piece to making the Sooners better in January. The approach is not completely foreign to OU's Big 12 opponents but it might be to a BCS opponent. Oklahoma had powerful offenses during their runs to the title game in 2003 and 2004 but come gametime, LSU and USC had them figured out to a degree. There are so many weapons on this club and Sam Bradford is developing into the Tom Brady (pro and healthy version) of college football. Ryan Broyles just made the Sooners even more scary to defend. The Sooners were supposed to get a real test from Cincinnati and at one point they got it. OU started fast, stalled for a bit but finished strong on both sides of the ball. Stoops has to solve his kickoff coverage which allowed the only meaningful TD by the Bearcats in the second half.
I was actually more impressed by Miami than Florida in their matchup but its based on expectations. Miami still has a long way to go but they looked the part for most of the game. The U talked up their visit to Norman last year and left 51-13 losers. I expected Florida to cruise. I think Marve will show some promise throughout the year but they still need more recruits and ones that can get clearance to start school.
Somewhere on Saturday night there had to be a meeting of Notre Dame heavy hitters discussing the potential of raising enough capital to oust Charlie Weis if the season remains on its current direction. Talk about a leveraged buyout. The opener should encourage no one in the Irish faithful. From the moment Jimmy Clausen had his MTV-ish presser to announce his college choice, I thought he was destined to be a bust. Still early but my view has only gotten stronger.
Shame of football rule makers for trying to take fun out of a game. Eliminating the taunting - OK - even though trash talk is fun in my opinion. Once again the Pac-10 officiating seminars appear to be a total waste of time. Bob Stoops might be getting nervous a series of make up calls is in the works for OU's visit to Washington this weekend.
Should LSU just schedule away games during the month of September?
The replays of old SWC battles between Texas and Arkansas will provide fans with a lot more competition than they will see on Saturday. Texas is going to to roll.
Kansas at South Florida on Friday night - finally a decent reason to stay home. Also, big game for BCS potential as Fresno hosts Wisconsin.
East Carolina stunned West Virginia. There was an upset buzz on this game from East Carolina's 'upset' over Virginia Tech in the opener but only a few took the bait. The real shocker was the score. 3 points for West Virginia with Pat White at the controls? The Neers will bounce back for this season but Bill Stewart is Larry Coker all over again except the fall will be quicker.
Ohio State struggles to get past Ohio. This is the classic look ahead performance. I really can't decide whether or not USC is going to blowout the Buckeyes in LA. I think conventional logic would suggest yes, but college football doesn't follow that path. Right now, everyone is doubting Ohio State and USC has been told how great they are and they might be thinking they are going to cruise. The Buckeyes would be advised to keep their mouth shut but earlier WR Ray Small questions USC's class. Bottom line, if Ohio State does get thumped, they shall not appear even close to the top two spots in the land at season's end. I think the voters will see to it.
Oklahoma's fast break no-huddle offense might be the missing piece to making the Sooners better in January. The approach is not completely foreign to OU's Big 12 opponents but it might be to a BCS opponent. Oklahoma had powerful offenses during their runs to the title game in 2003 and 2004 but come gametime, LSU and USC had them figured out to a degree. There are so many weapons on this club and Sam Bradford is developing into the Tom Brady (pro and healthy version) of college football. Ryan Broyles just made the Sooners even more scary to defend. The Sooners were supposed to get a real test from Cincinnati and at one point they got it. OU started fast, stalled for a bit but finished strong on both sides of the ball. Stoops has to solve his kickoff coverage which allowed the only meaningful TD by the Bearcats in the second half.
I was actually more impressed by Miami than Florida in their matchup but its based on expectations. Miami still has a long way to go but they looked the part for most of the game. The U talked up their visit to Norman last year and left 51-13 losers. I expected Florida to cruise. I think Marve will show some promise throughout the year but they still need more recruits and ones that can get clearance to start school.
Somewhere on Saturday night there had to be a meeting of Notre Dame heavy hitters discussing the potential of raising enough capital to oust Charlie Weis if the season remains on its current direction. Talk about a leveraged buyout. The opener should encourage no one in the Irish faithful. From the moment Jimmy Clausen had his MTV-ish presser to announce his college choice, I thought he was destined to be a bust. Still early but my view has only gotten stronger.
Shame of football rule makers for trying to take fun out of a game. Eliminating the taunting - OK - even though trash talk is fun in my opinion. Once again the Pac-10 officiating seminars appear to be a total waste of time. Bob Stoops might be getting nervous a series of make up calls is in the works for OU's visit to Washington this weekend.
Should LSU just schedule away games during the month of September?
The replays of old SWC battles between Texas and Arkansas will provide fans with a lot more competition than they will see on Saturday. Texas is going to to roll.
Kansas at South Florida on Friday night - finally a decent reason to stay home. Also, big game for BCS potential as Fresno hosts Wisconsin.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Games to Watch in Week 2
Week 2 begins with an upset - Vandy takes down Spurrier and the Gamecocks. Steve Martin and Vandy coach Bobby Johnson - separated at birth?
Navy at Ball State on Friday night - only if some football is better than no football but it might be competitive which might be rare this weekend.
Saturday, September 6th
Early time slot
The Big Ten loves the noon eastern kickoff. Can RichRod get his first win over Miami (Ohio)? Michigan is a 14.5 point favorite. ESPN2HD Ohio State tunes up minus Beanie Wells with Ohio U. ESPNHD
Boston College is a 7 point favorite over Georgia Tech. At least the ACC can't take another reputation hit in this one. RaycomHD/Gameplan
Mid-Afternoon
BYU (-9.5) at Washington - the Cougars are picked by some as a potential BCS buster. Tyrone Willingham could really use a win here. U Dub didn't look very good at Oregon last week. FSN HD
Cincinnati at Oklahoma (-21.5) - ABC is really downplaying this game by giving it the shaft on their regional coverage. It's gets only standard def treatment while HD cameras are being sent to the monster matchup of rebuilding Ole Miss at Wake. That's a joke. This game has potential national title implications for the home team. Cinci won 10 games last year and won't be intimidated. The Oklahoma team might disappoint in BCS games but they are dominant at home. ABC
West Virginia at East Carolina - ECU's upset of Va Tech last week is creating some buzz about this game. This should be one to watch. The line opened at WV -9.5 and has moved to 7.5. ESPNHD
Late-Afternoon
A&M at New Mexico - who had the worst week 1? Tommy Bowden, Phil Fulmer or Mike Sherman. The Aggies are in danger of starting the Sherman era 0-2. The line started at A&M -3 but has dropped 0.5 to -2.5. Versus Network
Early Evening
Kansas is a 21 point favorite at home against La Tech but don't be surprised if the Bulldogs make this a game. FSN HD
S. Florida (-14) at Central Florida - amazing there is actually interest in this game but these programs have earned it. S. Florida might end up winning the Big East but this one could be tougher than expected. ESPN2HD
Prime Time
Miami at Florida (-22) - this is a matchup in name only. Miami's defense apparently isn't impressed with Tim Tebow. This reminds me of last year when Miami was talking about a statement against Oklahoma in Norman. Sooners won 51-13. The Gators will cover. ESPNHD
Late Night
Texas (-27) at UTEP - McCoy looked like his freshman self in the opener and the pass defense settled down. The road trip might cause Texas to open slow but they will eventually pour it on in the second half. ESPN2HD
Game not on TV but should be - Texas Tech (-10) at Nevada (9 eastern / 8 central). The final score could resemble a basketball game. It could last 5 hours. Tech's defense did not show the improvement that some anticipated when putting them as a sleeper pick in the Big 12.
Navy at Ball State on Friday night - only if some football is better than no football but it might be competitive which might be rare this weekend.
Saturday, September 6th
Early time slot
The Big Ten loves the noon eastern kickoff. Can RichRod get his first win over Miami (Ohio)? Michigan is a 14.5 point favorite. ESPN2HD Ohio State tunes up minus Beanie Wells with Ohio U. ESPNHD
Boston College is a 7 point favorite over Georgia Tech. At least the ACC can't take another reputation hit in this one. RaycomHD/Gameplan
Mid-Afternoon
BYU (-9.5) at Washington - the Cougars are picked by some as a potential BCS buster. Tyrone Willingham could really use a win here. U Dub didn't look very good at Oregon last week. FSN HD
Cincinnati at Oklahoma (-21.5) - ABC is really downplaying this game by giving it the shaft on their regional coverage. It's gets only standard def treatment while HD cameras are being sent to the monster matchup of rebuilding Ole Miss at Wake. That's a joke. This game has potential national title implications for the home team. Cinci won 10 games last year and won't be intimidated. The Oklahoma team might disappoint in BCS games but they are dominant at home. ABC
West Virginia at East Carolina - ECU's upset of Va Tech last week is creating some buzz about this game. This should be one to watch. The line opened at WV -9.5 and has moved to 7.5. ESPNHD
Late-Afternoon
A&M at New Mexico - who had the worst week 1? Tommy Bowden, Phil Fulmer or Mike Sherman. The Aggies are in danger of starting the Sherman era 0-2. The line started at A&M -3 but has dropped 0.5 to -2.5. Versus Network
Early Evening
Kansas is a 21 point favorite at home against La Tech but don't be surprised if the Bulldogs make this a game. FSN HD
S. Florida (-14) at Central Florida - amazing there is actually interest in this game but these programs have earned it. S. Florida might end up winning the Big East but this one could be tougher than expected. ESPN2HD
Prime Time
Miami at Florida (-22) - this is a matchup in name only. Miami's defense apparently isn't impressed with Tim Tebow. This reminds me of last year when Miami was talking about a statement against Oklahoma in Norman. Sooners won 51-13. The Gators will cover. ESPNHD
Late Night
Texas (-27) at UTEP - McCoy looked like his freshman self in the opener and the pass defense settled down. The road trip might cause Texas to open slow but they will eventually pour it on in the second half. ESPN2HD
Game not on TV but should be - Texas Tech (-10) at Nevada (9 eastern / 8 central). The final score could resemble a basketball game. It could last 5 hours. Tech's defense did not show the improvement that some anticipated when putting them as a sleeper pick in the Big 12.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Quick Look back at Week 1
Apologies to the 1-2 people that stumbled upon this board from the link on ouinsider.com. I had some family matters that impacted by weekend and the ability to maintain this popular blog.
First of all, caution on reading too much into Week 1. USC looked really, really good and was rewarded in the polls. But, we don't know how Virginia (or any of these victims) will fare the remainder of the season. The perception of the Cavs might be due to last year's team that featured Chris Long and should have closed out Texas Tech in the Gator Bowl. Still, Sanchez looked sharp and Carroll might elect to put him into more of a playmaker role against Ohio State vs. a caretaker. If Wells can't go in LA, I just see a scenario in which Ohio State might get embarrassed again on the big stage.
The experts in the heartland might want to hold off on the predictions that improved defenses will result in Missouri and Texas Tech to elevate their status in the Big 12. Missouri is good because of Daniel and Maclin but the defense gave up too many big plays. Texas Tech gave up too many plays in general against Eastern Washington. Texas' secondary settled down after a rough first quarter and played well against a decent QB in Fla Atlantic's Rusty Smith. I still think Texas has issues but they exceeded my expectations in Week 1.
Michigan fans just need to accept the growing pains and realize there will be a payoff when Rodriguez settles in and has the talent to run his system. Utah is a decent team. Not sure where to begin with Clemson. Tiger fans need parole from the Tommy Bowden sentence. A&M is hard to figure out. Huge school deep in a recruiting hotbed. Big stadium. Big budget. Fans live football. A&M has to be one of the longest running disappointments in college football and the first game of the Mike Sherman era doesn't suggest change is on the way.
Fresno might just crash the BCS party this year. Solid win at Rutgers. The SEC took a reputation hit as a division winner in Tennessee travels west to get upset by rebuilding UCLA.
The 12th game decision has resulted in a lot of mismatches but credit the big name schools that agree to the neutral site meeting to open the season.
First of all, caution on reading too much into Week 1. USC looked really, really good and was rewarded in the polls. But, we don't know how Virginia (or any of these victims) will fare the remainder of the season. The perception of the Cavs might be due to last year's team that featured Chris Long and should have closed out Texas Tech in the Gator Bowl. Still, Sanchez looked sharp and Carroll might elect to put him into more of a playmaker role against Ohio State vs. a caretaker. If Wells can't go in LA, I just see a scenario in which Ohio State might get embarrassed again on the big stage.
The experts in the heartland might want to hold off on the predictions that improved defenses will result in Missouri and Texas Tech to elevate their status in the Big 12. Missouri is good because of Daniel and Maclin but the defense gave up too many big plays. Texas Tech gave up too many plays in general against Eastern Washington. Texas' secondary settled down after a rough first quarter and played well against a decent QB in Fla Atlantic's Rusty Smith. I still think Texas has issues but they exceeded my expectations in Week 1.
Michigan fans just need to accept the growing pains and realize there will be a payoff when Rodriguez settles in and has the talent to run his system. Utah is a decent team. Not sure where to begin with Clemson. Tiger fans need parole from the Tommy Bowden sentence. A&M is hard to figure out. Huge school deep in a recruiting hotbed. Big stadium. Big budget. Fans live football. A&M has to be one of the longest running disappointments in college football and the first game of the Mike Sherman era doesn't suggest change is on the way.
Fresno might just crash the BCS party this year. Solid win at Rutgers. The SEC took a reputation hit as a division winner in Tennessee travels west to get upset by rebuilding UCLA.
The 12th game decision has resulted in a lot of mismatches but credit the big name schools that agree to the neutral site meeting to open the season.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Is this the year Texas fails to reach 10-wins?
Seven straight seasons of at least 10-wins - is that impressive streak about to end this year?
Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman released his prediction of another 10-win season. After a review of his article, I'm sticking with my prediction that Texas will finally finish under 10 wins.
Colt McCoy had a 'sophomore slump' in 2007 for a couple of reasons. One, he pressed the big play too much (by his own admission) but the main reason his offensive line wasn't anything close to what he had protecting him during his freshman year. Bohls suggests the Texas offensive line might be one of the best in the country this year? I see it getting better but not that good.
However, protection won't be McCoy's main issue this year. It will be dealing with the loss of the weapons he had last year. The main trouble will be dealing with the early entries of TE Jermichael Finley and RB Jamaal Charles.
Texas struggled last year, a lot more than some people remember. They struggled out of the game against Arkansas State and trailed TCU 10-o at half before the Frogs imploded with turnovers and perhaps an inspired speech by Mack Brown. The Horns barely get by Central Florida. Instead of exacting revenge against K-State for the previous year, the Longhorns get blown out by the Cats in the worst home loss of the Mack Brown era.
Credit Texas for pulling it together and playing Oklahoma tough. If not for Lofton's strip of Charles as he was headed for a go-ahead score, maybe Texas pulls the upset. However, Jermichael Finley was the offensive key for Texas as Oklahoma couldn't cover or tackle him for three quarters.
Texas (at home) did not score a TD against mediocre Nebraska until the fourth quarter where Charles saved the day with the majority of his 290 yards rushing. Charles also rescued Texas from defeat at Oklahoma State where the Cowboys held a 35-14 lead going into the fourth quarter. Charles ran for 180 but with an 11 yard per carry average in that game.
Texas outscored Tech in a wild 59-43 game in Austin but then tanked on another revenge opportunity against rival A&M. On a day in which the failed Coach Fran era ended in College Station, A&M dominated Texas with a comfy point cushion for most of the game.
Texas beat Arizona State in a high scoring Holiday Bowl for its 10th win. Arizona State was a good team but they played like crap in that game. Credit Texas for playing with a sense of purpose and applying pressure to Carpenter but the Sun Devils lost 5 turnovers to only one for Texas and there were several balls on the ground that the Texas offense was lucky to recover.
Bottom line, there are as many if not more Q-marks about Texas in 2008. Muschamp is a great hire that will immediately improve the attitude but he has work to do. There is the loss of a stout DT tandem in Frank Okam and Derek Lokey. A freshman secondary facing a pass happy league with quality QBs is not a recipe for immediate results. McCoy will have more protection but the quality and experience combo of his skill players takes a temporary dip. The WRs will be OK but there is no immediate heir apparent for Finley and more importantly Charles. The running back by committee approach doesn't scare defensive coordinators like Charles and his speed. (Why do think Texas was fuming over losing Darnell Scott to Colorado?)
Predicted Record: 8-4 regular season
Oklahoma is superior in trenches and Bradford has his athletic TE (Gresham) and home run threat at RB (Murray). Chase Daniel has something to prove in his home state and will torch the Longhorn secondary. It will be another tough day for the secondary in Lubbock as Tech will beat Texas. I also think Texas will lose at either Colorado or Kansas.
This is a transition year for Texas because of their youth but it will pay dividends for 2009 as they will be back as one of the elite teams in the Big 12 and a factor in the national title race. OU will sub out its starting offensive line in '09 and Missouri and Tech will drop with the departure of their QB and star receivers due to graduation and early entry, respectively.
Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman released his prediction of another 10-win season. After a review of his article, I'm sticking with my prediction that Texas will finally finish under 10 wins.
Colt McCoy had a 'sophomore slump' in 2007 for a couple of reasons. One, he pressed the big play too much (by his own admission) but the main reason his offensive line wasn't anything close to what he had protecting him during his freshman year. Bohls suggests the Texas offensive line might be one of the best in the country this year? I see it getting better but not that good.
However, protection won't be McCoy's main issue this year. It will be dealing with the loss of the weapons he had last year. The main trouble will be dealing with the early entries of TE Jermichael Finley and RB Jamaal Charles.
Texas struggled last year, a lot more than some people remember. They struggled out of the game against Arkansas State and trailed TCU 10-o at half before the Frogs imploded with turnovers and perhaps an inspired speech by Mack Brown. The Horns barely get by Central Florida. Instead of exacting revenge against K-State for the previous year, the Longhorns get blown out by the Cats in the worst home loss of the Mack Brown era.
Credit Texas for pulling it together and playing Oklahoma tough. If not for Lofton's strip of Charles as he was headed for a go-ahead score, maybe Texas pulls the upset. However, Jermichael Finley was the offensive key for Texas as Oklahoma couldn't cover or tackle him for three quarters.
Texas (at home) did not score a TD against mediocre Nebraska until the fourth quarter where Charles saved the day with the majority of his 290 yards rushing. Charles also rescued Texas from defeat at Oklahoma State where the Cowboys held a 35-14 lead going into the fourth quarter. Charles ran for 180 but with an 11 yard per carry average in that game.
Texas outscored Tech in a wild 59-43 game in Austin but then tanked on another revenge opportunity against rival A&M. On a day in which the failed Coach Fran era ended in College Station, A&M dominated Texas with a comfy point cushion for most of the game.
Texas beat Arizona State in a high scoring Holiday Bowl for its 10th win. Arizona State was a good team but they played like crap in that game. Credit Texas for playing with a sense of purpose and applying pressure to Carpenter but the Sun Devils lost 5 turnovers to only one for Texas and there were several balls on the ground that the Texas offense was lucky to recover.
Bottom line, there are as many if not more Q-marks about Texas in 2008. Muschamp is a great hire that will immediately improve the attitude but he has work to do. There is the loss of a stout DT tandem in Frank Okam and Derek Lokey. A freshman secondary facing a pass happy league with quality QBs is not a recipe for immediate results. McCoy will have more protection but the quality and experience combo of his skill players takes a temporary dip. The WRs will be OK but there is no immediate heir apparent for Finley and more importantly Charles. The running back by committee approach doesn't scare defensive coordinators like Charles and his speed. (Why do think Texas was fuming over losing Darnell Scott to Colorado?)
Predicted Record: 8-4 regular season
Oklahoma is superior in trenches and Bradford has his athletic TE (Gresham) and home run threat at RB (Murray). Chase Daniel has something to prove in his home state and will torch the Longhorn secondary. It will be another tough day for the secondary in Lubbock as Tech will beat Texas. I also think Texas will lose at either Colorado or Kansas.
This is a transition year for Texas because of their youth but it will pay dividends for 2009 as they will be back as one of the elite teams in the Big 12 and a factor in the national title race. OU will sub out its starting offensive line in '09 and Missouri and Tech will drop with the departure of their QB and star receivers due to graduation and early entry, respectively.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Games that will decide the Heisman Race
Games to decide the Heisman Race by player....
Tim Tebow (Florida)
at Tennessee 9/20 - rivalry game will get a media spotlight
LSU 10/11 - just another big game in the SEC
Georgia 11/1 - the key game for Tebow
SEC Title game 12/6
Summary: the bar is always raised higher for a returning winner and Tebow's stats on the ground figure to fall with an improved RB position. To repeat, Tebow has to play big while leading the Gators to a national title game appearance or the voters will likely go elsewhere for the sake of variety.
Chase Daniel (Missouri)
Illinois (in St. Louis) 8/30 - this is one of the spotlight games of the opening weekend and a great opportunity for Daniel to get a head start.
at Texas 10/18 - even if Texas is coming off a loss to Oklahoma, the media is going to jump all over Daniel returning to his home state to face the school that ignored him until the last few days of the recruiting process. Texas is vulnerable this year and Daniel could light up the Longhorn secondary. If Missouri wins, the hype-machine on Daniel and the Tigers goes into overdrive in anticipation of a potential rematch with Oklahoma.
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - Missouri is a lock to be in KC on the first Saturday of December but will they be undefeated and in range of a shot at the national title?
Summary: If Chase Daniel leads Missouri past nemesis Oklahoma (likely South winner) in the Big 12 title game and into the national title game, Daniel is your winner no matter what happens with the other guys.
Chris (Beanie) Wells (Ohio State)
at Southern Cal 9/13 - if Wells has a big game against a stout Trojan defense AND the Buckeyes win, Wells takes an early lead but could lose momentum if the Big Ten is as weak as its critics suggest.
at Wisconsin 10/4 - depending on how good the Badgers really are but this will get some media attention.
Michigan 11/22 - Big Blue has no shot to beat Ohio State but its still a marquee rivalry and people still watch.
Summary: the only way for Wells to win it is for Ohio State to win at USC and then hang on to that momentum while Daniel and Tebow need to suffer losses.
Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
Texas (in Dallas) 10/11 - because its a big rivalry and both should be undefeated at the time
Texas Tech 11/22 - could be the game that decides the Big 12 South and a chance to outduel Graham Harrell
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - would likely face fellow Heisman hopeful
Summary: Bradford may be developing into the Tom Brady of college football. Like Stafford at Georgia, he faces the potential his running back may dominate the highlight reel but the numbers should be there. In a QB heavy league, Bradford can score points by outplaying his competition. It's unlikely a sophomore will win it again. Bradford's shot probably rests on going undefeated surviving a process of elimination by the voters.
Matthew Stafford / Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
at LSU 10/25 - any big game win in Baton Rouge will grab attention
Florida 11/1 - showdown with Tebow
at Auburn 11/15 - sure to be a spotlight game in the SEC
SEC Title game 12/6 - final chance to state the case
Summary: Tough schedule and preseason No. 1 ranking carries a lot of attention and pressure. Will Stafford and Moreno take votes from the other?
Pat White (West Virginia)
at Colorado 9/18 - has the Thursday night spotlight all to himself
Auburn 10/23 - voters will closely watch how White fares against an SEC defense
at Pitt 11/28 - Pitt is a popular pick and upset WV last year, game also falls on a holiday weekend
S. Florida 12/6 - could decide the Big East championship
Summary: White is outstanding but the Mountaineers probably have to punch a ticket to the national title game for him to win it.
Tim Tebow (Florida)
at Tennessee 9/20 - rivalry game will get a media spotlight
LSU 10/11 - just another big game in the SEC
Georgia 11/1 - the key game for Tebow
SEC Title game 12/6
Summary: the bar is always raised higher for a returning winner and Tebow's stats on the ground figure to fall with an improved RB position. To repeat, Tebow has to play big while leading the Gators to a national title game appearance or the voters will likely go elsewhere for the sake of variety.
Chase Daniel (Missouri)
Illinois (in St. Louis) 8/30 - this is one of the spotlight games of the opening weekend and a great opportunity for Daniel to get a head start.
at Texas 10/18 - even if Texas is coming off a loss to Oklahoma, the media is going to jump all over Daniel returning to his home state to face the school that ignored him until the last few days of the recruiting process. Texas is vulnerable this year and Daniel could light up the Longhorn secondary. If Missouri wins, the hype-machine on Daniel and the Tigers goes into overdrive in anticipation of a potential rematch with Oklahoma.
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - Missouri is a lock to be in KC on the first Saturday of December but will they be undefeated and in range of a shot at the national title?
Summary: If Chase Daniel leads Missouri past nemesis Oklahoma (likely South winner) in the Big 12 title game and into the national title game, Daniel is your winner no matter what happens with the other guys.
Chris (Beanie) Wells (Ohio State)
at Southern Cal 9/13 - if Wells has a big game against a stout Trojan defense AND the Buckeyes win, Wells takes an early lead but could lose momentum if the Big Ten is as weak as its critics suggest.
at Wisconsin 10/4 - depending on how good the Badgers really are but this will get some media attention.
Michigan 11/22 - Big Blue has no shot to beat Ohio State but its still a marquee rivalry and people still watch.
Summary: the only way for Wells to win it is for Ohio State to win at USC and then hang on to that momentum while Daniel and Tebow need to suffer losses.
Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
Texas (in Dallas) 10/11 - because its a big rivalry and both should be undefeated at the time
Texas Tech 11/22 - could be the game that decides the Big 12 South and a chance to outduel Graham Harrell
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - would likely face fellow Heisman hopeful
Summary: Bradford may be developing into the Tom Brady of college football. Like Stafford at Georgia, he faces the potential his running back may dominate the highlight reel but the numbers should be there. In a QB heavy league, Bradford can score points by outplaying his competition. It's unlikely a sophomore will win it again. Bradford's shot probably rests on going undefeated surviving a process of elimination by the voters.
Matthew Stafford / Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
at LSU 10/25 - any big game win in Baton Rouge will grab attention
Florida 11/1 - showdown with Tebow
at Auburn 11/15 - sure to be a spotlight game in the SEC
SEC Title game 12/6 - final chance to state the case
Summary: Tough schedule and preseason No. 1 ranking carries a lot of attention and pressure. Will Stafford and Moreno take votes from the other?
Pat White (West Virginia)
at Colorado 9/18 - has the Thursday night spotlight all to himself
Auburn 10/23 - voters will closely watch how White fares against an SEC defense
at Pitt 11/28 - Pitt is a popular pick and upset WV last year, game also falls on a holiday weekend
S. Florida 12/6 - could decide the Big East championship
Summary: White is outstanding but the Mountaineers probably have to punch a ticket to the national title game for him to win it.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Best chance to go undefeated...
Forget for a moment about the scenarios that could unfold in which there is a beauty contest between one loss teams......one of the great fears of the college football fan is to see a BCS conference team go undefeated due to a weak schedule. It would be extremely hard to see a situation in which an undefeated BCS conference champ lost a spot in the title game to a one loss champ from a stronger BCS conference.
Simply looking at the best chance to go undefeated during the regular season, here are my picks and why:
USC - the stout defense can carry the offense early if need be, Young Sanchez has the benefit of a home crowd in 2008 version of Game of the Century against Ohio State, the Pac-10 is down this year.
Ohio State - obviously they would have to beat the team above, but the Big Ten just doesn't appear that challenging. The two games that stand in the way would be at Wisconsin and at Illinois. For some reason I think the addition of Terrelle Pryor will help the Buckeyes stay upset-free during their conference season.
Clemson - I can't believe I am putting Tommy Bowden in this positon but it's totally based on talent at the skill positions and a very favorable schedule. If they get past Alabama, the only other ranked team on their schedule is Wake Forest. They could get beat by Wake or S. Carolina in the finale but the Gamers have to come to Death Valley.
Oklahoma - talent, experience in the trenches and at QB and even though the Big 12 may challenge the SEC for the toughest league label, OU's schedule is favorable as they meet their most talented opponents on a neutral field (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). The key to avoiding the upset plague of the past - more consistency on the road.
Missouri - I predict the Tigers to go 12-0 before losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Missouri will beat Illinois and I think they will take advantage of the Longhorns' growing pains in the secondary to steal a win in Austin. I think people are overrating the potential significance of this year's Missouri-Kansas game. If Chase Daniel can get over the Oklahoma hump, they will be 13-0 and heading to Miami.
Florida - the Gators play in the ultra-competitive SEC but they get a favorable draw with home and away. The Cocktail Party is neutral. The offense should be unstoppable. The injuries on defense are a concern but a lot of experience was gained last year.
Georgia - the schedule is too tough and while Matthew Stafford will likely be cashing a big bonus check in the near future, his track record with the pads is being ignored by those pumping him up due to summer workouts in a t-shirt and shorts. The loss of the LT Sturdivant is a big blow. Off-the field issues could linger but more than anything, the burden of No. 1 is tough - plenty of teams from last year would agree.
West Virginia - Bill Stewart won more than just the most ridiculous looking bowl trophy in college football by beating Oklahoma, he won a full-time gig. I think Stewart will follow the path of Larry Coker and I'm not alone in that view but he still has Pat White and Noel Devine to run up and down the field. Defensive losses open the door too much for an improving Big East. WV also has to travel to upset-minded Colorado for a Thursday night game long before the CU students would even think about ditching the stands for the slopes.
Simply looking at the best chance to go undefeated during the regular season, here are my picks and why:
USC - the stout defense can carry the offense early if need be, Young Sanchez has the benefit of a home crowd in 2008 version of Game of the Century against Ohio State, the Pac-10 is down this year.
Ohio State - obviously they would have to beat the team above, but the Big Ten just doesn't appear that challenging. The two games that stand in the way would be at Wisconsin and at Illinois. For some reason I think the addition of Terrelle Pryor will help the Buckeyes stay upset-free during their conference season.
Clemson - I can't believe I am putting Tommy Bowden in this positon but it's totally based on talent at the skill positions and a very favorable schedule. If they get past Alabama, the only other ranked team on their schedule is Wake Forest. They could get beat by Wake or S. Carolina in the finale but the Gamers have to come to Death Valley.
Oklahoma - talent, experience in the trenches and at QB and even though the Big 12 may challenge the SEC for the toughest league label, OU's schedule is favorable as they meet their most talented opponents on a neutral field (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). The key to avoiding the upset plague of the past - more consistency on the road.
Missouri - I predict the Tigers to go 12-0 before losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Missouri will beat Illinois and I think they will take advantage of the Longhorns' growing pains in the secondary to steal a win in Austin. I think people are overrating the potential significance of this year's Missouri-Kansas game. If Chase Daniel can get over the Oklahoma hump, they will be 13-0 and heading to Miami.
Florida - the Gators play in the ultra-competitive SEC but they get a favorable draw with home and away. The Cocktail Party is neutral. The offense should be unstoppable. The injuries on defense are a concern but a lot of experience was gained last year.
Georgia - the schedule is too tough and while Matthew Stafford will likely be cashing a big bonus check in the near future, his track record with the pads is being ignored by those pumping him up due to summer workouts in a t-shirt and shorts. The loss of the LT Sturdivant is a big blow. Off-the field issues could linger but more than anything, the burden of No. 1 is tough - plenty of teams from last year would agree.
West Virginia - Bill Stewart won more than just the most ridiculous looking bowl trophy in college football by beating Oklahoma, he won a full-time gig. I think Stewart will follow the path of Larry Coker and I'm not alone in that view but he still has Pat White and Noel Devine to run up and down the field. Defensive losses open the door too much for an improving Big East. WV also has to travel to upset-minded Colorado for a Thursday night game long before the CU students would even think about ditching the stands for the slopes.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
ESPN Gameday's Entourage
Two great things are about to begin again - college football and finally a new season of Entourage.
On the drive to work, for some reason I started comparing the ESPN Gameday crew to the Entourage crew....
Vincent Chase - there is no debate here, easily Kirk Herbstreit. Herbie could close the deal on a campus visit like Vince could at any spot in LA.
Eric "E" Murphy - Chris Fowler. They both run the show.
Johnny "Drama" Chase - Lee Corso. So many similarities in their career histories.
Turtle - Desmond Howard. On occasion, Howard has put on the pads and the helmet for demonstration. It sort of reminds me when Turtle had to throw on the pads to train Arnold the dog or when he supposed to wear the bunny suit to close the Shanna Moakler character to win a bet for Drama.
On the drive to work, for some reason I started comparing the ESPN Gameday crew to the Entourage crew....
Vincent Chase - there is no debate here, easily Kirk Herbstreit. Herbie could close the deal on a campus visit like Vince could at any spot in LA.
Eric "E" Murphy - Chris Fowler. They both run the show.
Johnny "Drama" Chase - Lee Corso. So many similarities in their career histories.
Turtle - Desmond Howard. On occasion, Howard has put on the pads and the helmet for demonstration. It sort of reminds me when Turtle had to throw on the pads to train Arnold the dog or when he supposed to wear the bunny suit to close the Shanna Moakler character to win a bet for Drama.
ESPN favors Buckeyes and Sooners
The Espire revealed the picks of its college football staff and the majority favors the two BCS whipping boys - Oklahoma and Ohio State. The rest of the college football world might have a major power down. Both are 0 for their last 2 championship games with different levels of embarrassment. Given the recent history, what is the majority at ESPN thinking?
Ohio State - loaded with talent and experience. The USC game might be make or break for the Bucks in the eyes of the voters but Ohio State might be a trendy pick for two reasons 1) never underestimate the power to prove the doubters wrong and 2) Terrelle Pryor figures to play the role of Tim Tebow of 2006 and the Ryan Perrilloux of 2007. Ohio State would rather host USC but they are playing the Trojans as they break in new faces on offense and Sanchez might still be favoring the knee. If Ohio State can escape LA with a win, they only have to guard against the upset in the Big Ten.
Oklahoma - strong in the trenches, solid QB and tons of skill players. OU has inexperience concerns at LB and at corner. Nic Harris is one of the top safeties in the country and Lendy Holmes is versatile enough to move from safety to corner depending on the need. If the Sooners' defensive line lives up to its potential, it will take a lot of pressure off the back 7. The Sooners have a favorable schedule. The toughest opponents in terms of talent are at neutral sites (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). Oklahoma's main concern is consistency and avoiding the road upset.
Those selections probably are as much as process of elimination as anything. Ohio State likely would need to be undefeated. Oklahoma would likely need to be undefeated as well. If Georgia or Florida has one loss, the SEC would get preferential treatment in a comparison of equal loss teams from other BCS conferences. The guess is that the Espire's majority thinks Ohio State will beat USC (surprising) and will cruise through the weak Big Ten....Oklahoma will take advantage of its favorable schedule, shake their upset plague and once again beat Missouri...the SEC is just too tough....West Virginia will lose at least one game in the Big East or perhaps at Colorado or at home vs. Auburn.
The fact that most college football fans probably don't want to see that matchup makes it more likely. The college football gods don't care what you think. They like to tease and throw curves. They like to create controversy in the form of too many teams with no losses, one loss or even two losses. They like to create mass chaos which pretty much sums up last year and especially the final day of the regular season.
Ohio State - loaded with talent and experience. The USC game might be make or break for the Bucks in the eyes of the voters but Ohio State might be a trendy pick for two reasons 1) never underestimate the power to prove the doubters wrong and 2) Terrelle Pryor figures to play the role of Tim Tebow of 2006 and the Ryan Perrilloux of 2007. Ohio State would rather host USC but they are playing the Trojans as they break in new faces on offense and Sanchez might still be favoring the knee. If Ohio State can escape LA with a win, they only have to guard against the upset in the Big Ten.
Oklahoma - strong in the trenches, solid QB and tons of skill players. OU has inexperience concerns at LB and at corner. Nic Harris is one of the top safeties in the country and Lendy Holmes is versatile enough to move from safety to corner depending on the need. If the Sooners' defensive line lives up to its potential, it will take a lot of pressure off the back 7. The Sooners have a favorable schedule. The toughest opponents in terms of talent are at neutral sites (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). Oklahoma's main concern is consistency and avoiding the road upset.
Those selections probably are as much as process of elimination as anything. Ohio State likely would need to be undefeated. Oklahoma would likely need to be undefeated as well. If Georgia or Florida has one loss, the SEC would get preferential treatment in a comparison of equal loss teams from other BCS conferences. The guess is that the Espire's majority thinks Ohio State will beat USC (surprising) and will cruise through the weak Big Ten....Oklahoma will take advantage of its favorable schedule, shake their upset plague and once again beat Missouri...the SEC is just too tough....West Virginia will lose at least one game in the Big East or perhaps at Colorado or at home vs. Auburn.
The fact that most college football fans probably don't want to see that matchup makes it more likely. The college football gods don't care what you think. They like to tease and throw curves. They like to create controversy in the form of too many teams with no losses, one loss or even two losses. They like to create mass chaos which pretty much sums up last year and especially the final day of the regular season.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
The Boys are Back
...not the 'Entourage' crew, the ESPN College Gameday boys returned yesterday for their Season Preview Special. On a side note, ESPN could likely make their own Entourage show starring either Kirk Herbstreit or Erin Andrews.
A couple of things about the show stood out to me. One, Herbstreit called Matthew Stafford the best QB in the country. The exhibition stuff he does in a t-shirt and shorts is apparently the stuff of legends and will no doubt attract the eye of the NFL soon but the numbers when he puts on the pads and the helmet are not even close to the top QBs in college football. (see my earlier breakdown of his career to date)
Holtz should not be allowed to comment on anything Notre Dame. 10 or 11 wins? He had the same type of prediction last year. ESPN's producers are probably just trying to setup the sparring sessions to come between Holtz and Mark May.
Fowler claimed no other conference was even close to the SEC this year. Not so fast. The Big 12 has a shot to be close or its equal....this year. A few years ago, the Big 12 overall was a joke but the balance provided by Missouri and Kansas with the potential of Tech as a BCS sleeper this year has dramatically improved the Big 12's rep. Now if Oklahoma can just show up in a BCS game they way they approach the Big 12 title games.
I realize the SEC owns the last two national champions but LSU has had the ultimate luxury of playing their BCS games as virtual home games inside the Superdome, Florida's loss to Michigan was perhaps the most shocking result of the bowl season and that Arkansas team that beat LSU in Baton Rouge got blown out by the Big 12's Missouri in which Tony Temple was somehow the best back on the field despite the presence of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
A lot of surprising love for Ohio State from the panel. Most of the media has banished them from legit title discussion despite their high ranking again. The consensus believes they will get bumped in LA and the voters will see to it they don't get to Miami by winning a weak Big Ten. More surprising was that Herbie picked USC and Florida to get to the title game - not his Buckeyes. The same Lou Holtz that predicts double digit wins for the Irish predicted a title game of the BCS whipping boys - Ohio State and Oklahoma. Corso selected USC over Missouri.
I no longer clear my schedule for 'Gameday.' I might watch the open but its become a TIVO event for me because too much of the 60 Minutes documentaries or feel good stories. The analysis looks more and more like it originates from Gameday's producers rather than the on-screen talent. But, it's still the best there is for a preview...
A couple of things about the show stood out to me. One, Herbstreit called Matthew Stafford the best QB in the country. The exhibition stuff he does in a t-shirt and shorts is apparently the stuff of legends and will no doubt attract the eye of the NFL soon but the numbers when he puts on the pads and the helmet are not even close to the top QBs in college football. (see my earlier breakdown of his career to date)
Holtz should not be allowed to comment on anything Notre Dame. 10 or 11 wins? He had the same type of prediction last year. ESPN's producers are probably just trying to setup the sparring sessions to come between Holtz and Mark May.
Fowler claimed no other conference was even close to the SEC this year. Not so fast. The Big 12 has a shot to be close or its equal....this year. A few years ago, the Big 12 overall was a joke but the balance provided by Missouri and Kansas with the potential of Tech as a BCS sleeper this year has dramatically improved the Big 12's rep. Now if Oklahoma can just show up in a BCS game they way they approach the Big 12 title games.
I realize the SEC owns the last two national champions but LSU has had the ultimate luxury of playing their BCS games as virtual home games inside the Superdome, Florida's loss to Michigan was perhaps the most shocking result of the bowl season and that Arkansas team that beat LSU in Baton Rouge got blown out by the Big 12's Missouri in which Tony Temple was somehow the best back on the field despite the presence of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
A lot of surprising love for Ohio State from the panel. Most of the media has banished them from legit title discussion despite their high ranking again. The consensus believes they will get bumped in LA and the voters will see to it they don't get to Miami by winning a weak Big Ten. More surprising was that Herbie picked USC and Florida to get to the title game - not his Buckeyes. The same Lou Holtz that predicts double digit wins for the Irish predicted a title game of the BCS whipping boys - Ohio State and Oklahoma. Corso selected USC over Missouri.
I no longer clear my schedule for 'Gameday.' I might watch the open but its become a TIVO event for me because too much of the 60 Minutes documentaries or feel good stories. The analysis looks more and more like it originates from Gameday's producers rather than the on-screen talent. But, it's still the best there is for a preview...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
ESPN's Love for Missouri
ESPN's lovefest for Missouri and Chase Daniel is just beginning. The Espire's (my affectionate term for ESPN) Big 12 blogger Tim Griffin gives Missouri the edge over Oklahoma. Bruce Feldman thinks Missouri going to win the national title and I assume that means he thinks Chase Daniel wins the Heisman.
I'm actually with Feldman for the first 12 games of the year. I think Missouri is good enough to remain undefeated up until the Big 12 title game. They will beat Illinois and cruise through the remainder of their non-conference. Pelini was a good hire but Nebraska will be in no position to pull off a win over Missouri. The teams that might be able to score with the Tigers and therefore possibly pull off an 'upset' - Oklahoma State, Colorado and K-State - have to travel to Columbia. I think KU will come back to earth and will be no match for Missouri at Arrowhead in the regular season finale. The 12-0 regular season really comes down to beating Texas in Austin. I think Chase Daniel will return to his home state and leave happy.
Texas struggled last year and given their losses to graduation and early entry, they are still a young team in transition with 4 returning starters on defense and a vulnerable secondary. The Horns got drilled by K-State and barely beat a poor Nebraska team in Austin. Muschamp is a great hire but there is too much work to be done this year. Texas will be back in 2009 but I think they could fall below their impressive streak of 10-win seasons.
So, the stage is set for Missouri and Chase Daniel. 60 minutes away from a Big 12 championship, the BCS title game shot, a Heisman for Daniel and getting the Oklahoma monkey off the back. I don't know whether or not Oklahoma will be in position for the BCS title game or not when they face Missouri again. The Sooners need to show me something (this coming from a die-hard) in the way of consistency - particularly playing better in true road settings - before I predict the Big 12 game to be a true national championship semi-final game.
I fully expect Missouri to be billed by the media as the favorite at that point, especially if Oklahoma loses a game to say K-State or Oklahoma State. What I don't get is the media going with Missouri over OU at the start of the season. Is it the depature of Curtis Lofton, who seemed to be in the right place for key plays in last year's meetings, or is it the youth of the Oklahoma secondary? "Missouri seems determined and focused"......we heard the same stuff last year.
Oklahoma and Missouri have played three times in the last two seasons - all OU wins by scores of 26-10, 41-31 and 38-17. There are many variables but the key element was the red zone dominance of Oklahoma. The Sooners scored TDs while Missouri was settling for a lot of FGs. Take last year's Big 12 title game. In the second half, the score was Oklahoma 28-17. Both teams had actually scored four times but Oklahoma had 4 TDs while Missouri had 3 FGs, one TD and a two point conversion.
Missouri has actually had a lot of success moving the ball between the 20s but when the field is vertically limited inside the red zone, Oklahoma's power running game and Missouri's lack of one has been the key difference between the two teams. The red zone dominance reflects the superiority of Oklahoma in the trenches and that isn't going to change in 2008. Oklahoma has one of the best offensive lines in the country and probably one of the best defensive lines. Also consider that the Sooners most explosive player, DeMarco Murray, was a non-factor in the game in Norman and injured during the Big 12 title game.
Missouri would have a fair amount of fans at a Big 12 title game in Arrowhead but it's not like Sooner fans haven't made plenty of trips to KC. Oklahoma has won 3 of their 5 Big 12 titles in Kansas City - two of which were in a deep freeze.
I'm actually with Feldman for the first 12 games of the year. I think Missouri is good enough to remain undefeated up until the Big 12 title game. They will beat Illinois and cruise through the remainder of their non-conference. Pelini was a good hire but Nebraska will be in no position to pull off a win over Missouri. The teams that might be able to score with the Tigers and therefore possibly pull off an 'upset' - Oklahoma State, Colorado and K-State - have to travel to Columbia. I think KU will come back to earth and will be no match for Missouri at Arrowhead in the regular season finale. The 12-0 regular season really comes down to beating Texas in Austin. I think Chase Daniel will return to his home state and leave happy.
Texas struggled last year and given their losses to graduation and early entry, they are still a young team in transition with 4 returning starters on defense and a vulnerable secondary. The Horns got drilled by K-State and barely beat a poor Nebraska team in Austin. Muschamp is a great hire but there is too much work to be done this year. Texas will be back in 2009 but I think they could fall below their impressive streak of 10-win seasons.
So, the stage is set for Missouri and Chase Daniel. 60 minutes away from a Big 12 championship, the BCS title game shot, a Heisman for Daniel and getting the Oklahoma monkey off the back. I don't know whether or not Oklahoma will be in position for the BCS title game or not when they face Missouri again. The Sooners need to show me something (this coming from a die-hard) in the way of consistency - particularly playing better in true road settings - before I predict the Big 12 game to be a true national championship semi-final game.
I fully expect Missouri to be billed by the media as the favorite at that point, especially if Oklahoma loses a game to say K-State or Oklahoma State. What I don't get is the media going with Missouri over OU at the start of the season. Is it the depature of Curtis Lofton, who seemed to be in the right place for key plays in last year's meetings, or is it the youth of the Oklahoma secondary? "Missouri seems determined and focused"......we heard the same stuff last year.
Oklahoma and Missouri have played three times in the last two seasons - all OU wins by scores of 26-10, 41-31 and 38-17. There are many variables but the key element was the red zone dominance of Oklahoma. The Sooners scored TDs while Missouri was settling for a lot of FGs. Take last year's Big 12 title game. In the second half, the score was Oklahoma 28-17. Both teams had actually scored four times but Oklahoma had 4 TDs while Missouri had 3 FGs, one TD and a two point conversion.
Missouri has actually had a lot of success moving the ball between the 20s but when the field is vertically limited inside the red zone, Oklahoma's power running game and Missouri's lack of one has been the key difference between the two teams. The red zone dominance reflects the superiority of Oklahoma in the trenches and that isn't going to change in 2008. Oklahoma has one of the best offensive lines in the country and probably one of the best defensive lines. Also consider that the Sooners most explosive player, DeMarco Murray, was a non-factor in the game in Norman and injured during the Big 12 title game.
Missouri would have a fair amount of fans at a Big 12 title game in Arrowhead but it's not like Sooner fans haven't made plenty of trips to KC. Oklahoma has won 3 of their 5 Big 12 titles in Kansas City - two of which were in a deep freeze.
Tap the Brakes on Stafford and Georgia
Georgia has the talent to win the national title - at least I think they do - but there are too many factors working against them. Tough schedule. Distractions. Questions.
Every assessment of Georgia talks about their schedule and the SEC. Consecutive early road trips to S. Carolina and Arizona State. Baton Rouge. The Cocktail Party against Superman and a Florida team that will be looking for revenge. At Auburn. Georgia can beat them all but they won't.
Georgia has not handled things well since thumping Hawaii in the Sugar. Off-the-field trouble is becoming the norm in college football but the number of UGA players involving in such activity Georgia is alarming. How many players are suspended for the opener? Georgia will still beat Georgia Southern but off-the-field trouble can linger. (ask Texas) It's becoming increasing tougher to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or even No. 2. Check the number of 1-2 teams that lost to unranked teams last year. Georgia has been hyped since the end of last season.
The final issue is that the so-called experts are allowing their view of what Matthew Stafford might do at an NFL combine in Feb '09 or '10 overshadow the need for him to polish his current game. He has all the tools but the track record is just not that impressive. I don't put much stock in Stafford's freshman stats - only to set the comparison to the sophomore year where there should be significant improvement. The results are mixed.
Stafford's TD to INT ratio improved from 7/13 in his freshman year to 19/10 during the sophomore campaign. However, his completion percentage (CP) only improved from 53% to 56%. Many times soph QBs will improve their numbers as the season goes along. However, that is not the case with Stafford. In fact, his highest CP was 75% in the opener against Oklahoma State. The second highest (and only remaining CP over 70%) was two weeks later against W. Carolina. On three occasions during the season, Stafford's CP was under 50% and those were actually spread out - one in each third of the season. Another interesting find was Stafford had only one game with a CP of 60%+ during the months of October and November. The CP trend line was declining the entire month of November.
I have nothing against either Georgia or Stafford but the the pre-season No. 1 gets the closest look and ESPN personalities can't stop raving about this guy and his shot at perhaps a Heisman Trophy. The opportunity is there as with any QB on a national title contender but his track record just doesn't compare with other QBs across the country - at least not yet and now he won't have his starting LT for all of 2008 to protect his blindside.
Every assessment of Georgia talks about their schedule and the SEC. Consecutive early road trips to S. Carolina and Arizona State. Baton Rouge. The Cocktail Party against Superman and a Florida team that will be looking for revenge. At Auburn. Georgia can beat them all but they won't.
Georgia has not handled things well since thumping Hawaii in the Sugar. Off-the-field trouble is becoming the norm in college football but the number of UGA players involving in such activity Georgia is alarming. How many players are suspended for the opener? Georgia will still beat Georgia Southern but off-the-field trouble can linger. (ask Texas) It's becoming increasing tougher to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or even No. 2. Check the number of 1-2 teams that lost to unranked teams last year. Georgia has been hyped since the end of last season.
The final issue is that the so-called experts are allowing their view of what Matthew Stafford might do at an NFL combine in Feb '09 or '10 overshadow the need for him to polish his current game. He has all the tools but the track record is just not that impressive. I don't put much stock in Stafford's freshman stats - only to set the comparison to the sophomore year where there should be significant improvement. The results are mixed.
Stafford's TD to INT ratio improved from 7/13 in his freshman year to 19/10 during the sophomore campaign. However, his completion percentage (CP) only improved from 53% to 56%. Many times soph QBs will improve their numbers as the season goes along. However, that is not the case with Stafford. In fact, his highest CP was 75% in the opener against Oklahoma State. The second highest (and only remaining CP over 70%) was two weeks later against W. Carolina. On three occasions during the season, Stafford's CP was under 50% and those were actually spread out - one in each third of the season. Another interesting find was Stafford had only one game with a CP of 60%+ during the months of October and November. The CP trend line was declining the entire month of November.
I have nothing against either Georgia or Stafford but the the pre-season No. 1 gets the closest look and ESPN personalities can't stop raving about this guy and his shot at perhaps a Heisman Trophy. The opportunity is there as with any QB on a national title contender but his track record just doesn't compare with other QBs across the country - at least not yet and now he won't have his starting LT for all of 2008 to protect his blindside.
The Second Act
After coming to the realization the entire sports universe is going the way of the blog - even ESPN.com - and getting tired of posting the longest responses on message boards, I'm giving this blog thing another shot.
Last season is long gone. The pre-season mags have been out since June and the pre-season rankings are the hot topic - that and the number of players missing the opener for Georgia. Speaking of Georgia, no surprise as the pre-season No. 1 but I don't think they will stay there and that was before the injury to their starting LT. Georgia is talented but every day they look more and more like the team that might disappoint the most.
First and foremost, its tougher for teams to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or 2. Go back to the number of teams last year that moved up with solid play only to look average at best in the spotlight and fall quickly and many times to an unranked team that had no business pulling off an upset. Will the upsets continue this year? The overall trend line of upsets vs. history will continue to increase but the sheer number won't reach last year. I think college football's traditional powers will continue to occupy the top 'floors' of rankings but upsets will reshuffle the occupants more frequently.
I don't think we will see the two loss thing for a while but the debate over the one-loss teams will be almost an annual thing - which leads us to strength of schedule talk. Once upon a time it was in the BCS but taken out. Many schools, like Texas, have elected to stay away from high profile series in the future like the one they recently had with Ohio State. Oklahoma is going the opposite direction which is why their highly respected AD Joe Castiglione has been advocating SOS be put back into the equation.
The way the system is setup, it would appear Texas is making the right move by taking the path of least resistance. Their thought is don't take a lot of risk in the non-conference because if they can go undefeated in the Big 12, chances are they get in. However, it actually may work against teams with that approach. A couple of years ago some argued it was harder to win a title in the more competitive SEC because of the difficulty in staying unbeaten vs. say USC in the Pac-10 or Ohio State in the Big Ten. It's a foregone conclusion that an undefeated BCS team would likely get into the national title game over a one-loss BCS team no matter the circumstances or particular BCS conference. However, parity is resulting in fewer BCS undefeateds and the trend is likely to continue. Therefore, in a comparison of one-loss teams, conference reputation and the non-conference schedule may be the deciding factor after all. It certainly worked for the SEC the last two years.
Last season is long gone. The pre-season mags have been out since June and the pre-season rankings are the hot topic - that and the number of players missing the opener for Georgia. Speaking of Georgia, no surprise as the pre-season No. 1 but I don't think they will stay there and that was before the injury to their starting LT. Georgia is talented but every day they look more and more like the team that might disappoint the most.
First and foremost, its tougher for teams to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or 2. Go back to the number of teams last year that moved up with solid play only to look average at best in the spotlight and fall quickly and many times to an unranked team that had no business pulling off an upset. Will the upsets continue this year? The overall trend line of upsets vs. history will continue to increase but the sheer number won't reach last year. I think college football's traditional powers will continue to occupy the top 'floors' of rankings but upsets will reshuffle the occupants more frequently.
I don't think we will see the two loss thing for a while but the debate over the one-loss teams will be almost an annual thing - which leads us to strength of schedule talk. Once upon a time it was in the BCS but taken out. Many schools, like Texas, have elected to stay away from high profile series in the future like the one they recently had with Ohio State. Oklahoma is going the opposite direction which is why their highly respected AD Joe Castiglione has been advocating SOS be put back into the equation.
The way the system is setup, it would appear Texas is making the right move by taking the path of least resistance. Their thought is don't take a lot of risk in the non-conference because if they can go undefeated in the Big 12, chances are they get in. However, it actually may work against teams with that approach. A couple of years ago some argued it was harder to win a title in the more competitive SEC because of the difficulty in staying unbeaten vs. say USC in the Pac-10 or Ohio State in the Big Ten. It's a foregone conclusion that an undefeated BCS team would likely get into the national title game over a one-loss BCS team no matter the circumstances or particular BCS conference. However, parity is resulting in fewer BCS undefeateds and the trend is likely to continue. Therefore, in a comparison of one-loss teams, conference reputation and the non-conference schedule may be the deciding factor after all. It certainly worked for the SEC the last two years.
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