ESPN's Love for Missouri

ESPN's lovefest for Missouri and Chase Daniel is just beginning. The Espire's (my affectionate term for ESPN) Big 12 blogger Tim Griffin gives Missouri the edge over Oklahoma. Bruce Feldman thinks Missouri going to win the national title and I assume that means he thinks Chase Daniel wins the Heisman.

I'm actually with Feldman for the first 12 games of the year. I think Missouri is good enough to remain undefeated up until the Big 12 title game. They will beat Illinois and cruise through the remainder of their non-conference. Pelini was a good hire but Nebraska will be in no position to pull off a win over Missouri. The teams that might be able to score with the Tigers and therefore possibly pull off an 'upset' - Oklahoma State, Colorado and K-State - have to travel to Columbia. I think KU will come back to earth and will be no match for Missouri at Arrowhead in the regular season finale. The 12-0 regular season really comes down to beating Texas in Austin. I think Chase Daniel will return to his home state and leave happy.

Texas struggled last year and given their losses to graduation and early entry, they are still a young team in transition with 4 returning starters on defense and a vulnerable secondary. The Horns got drilled by K-State and barely beat a poor Nebraska team in Austin. Muschamp is a great hire but there is too much work to be done this year. Texas will be back in 2009 but I think they could fall below their impressive streak of 10-win seasons.

So, the stage is set for Missouri and Chase Daniel. 60 minutes away from a Big 12 championship, the BCS title game shot, a Heisman for Daniel and getting the Oklahoma monkey off the back. I don't know whether or not Oklahoma will be in position for the BCS title game or not when they face Missouri again. The Sooners need to show me something (this coming from a die-hard) in the way of consistency - particularly playing better in true road settings - before I predict the Big 12 game to be a true national championship semi-final game.

I fully expect Missouri to be billed by the media as the favorite at that point, especially if Oklahoma loses a game to say K-State or Oklahoma State. What I don't get is the media going with Missouri over OU at the start of the season. Is it the depature of Curtis Lofton, who seemed to be in the right place for key plays in last year's meetings, or is it the youth of the Oklahoma secondary? "Missouri seems determined and focused"......we heard the same stuff last year.

Oklahoma and Missouri have played three times in the last two seasons - all OU wins by scores of 26-10, 41-31 and 38-17. There are many variables but the key element was the red zone dominance of Oklahoma. The Sooners scored TDs while Missouri was settling for a lot of FGs. Take last year's Big 12 title game. In the second half, the score was Oklahoma 28-17. Both teams had actually scored four times but Oklahoma had 4 TDs while Missouri had 3 FGs, one TD and a two point conversion.

Missouri has actually had a lot of success moving the ball between the 20s but when the field is vertically limited inside the red zone, Oklahoma's power running game and Missouri's lack of one has been the key difference between the two teams. The red zone dominance reflects the superiority of Oklahoma in the trenches and that isn't going to change in 2008. Oklahoma has one of the best offensive lines in the country and probably one of the best defensive lines. Also consider that the Sooners most explosive player, DeMarco Murray, was a non-factor in the game in Norman and injured during the Big 12 title game.

Missouri would have a fair amount of fans at a Big 12 title game in Arrowhead but it's not like Sooner fans haven't made plenty of trips to KC. Oklahoma has won 3 of their 5 Big 12 titles in Kansas City - two of which were in a deep freeze.