Seven straight seasons of at least 10-wins - is that impressive streak about to end this year?
Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman released his prediction of another 10-win season. After a review of his article, I'm sticking with my prediction that Texas will finally finish under 10 wins.
Colt McCoy had a 'sophomore slump' in 2007 for a couple of reasons. One, he pressed the big play too much (by his own admission) but the main reason his offensive line wasn't anything close to what he had protecting him during his freshman year. Bohls suggests the Texas offensive line might be one of the best in the country this year? I see it getting better but not that good.
However, protection won't be McCoy's main issue this year. It will be dealing with the loss of the weapons he had last year. The main trouble will be dealing with the early entries of TE Jermichael Finley and RB Jamaal Charles.
Texas struggled last year, a lot more than some people remember. They struggled out of the game against Arkansas State and trailed TCU 10-o at half before the Frogs imploded with turnovers and perhaps an inspired speech by Mack Brown. The Horns barely get by Central Florida. Instead of exacting revenge against K-State for the previous year, the Longhorns get blown out by the Cats in the worst home loss of the Mack Brown era.
Credit Texas for pulling it together and playing Oklahoma tough. If not for Lofton's strip of Charles as he was headed for a go-ahead score, maybe Texas pulls the upset. However, Jermichael Finley was the offensive key for Texas as Oklahoma couldn't cover or tackle him for three quarters.
Texas (at home) did not score a TD against mediocre Nebraska until the fourth quarter where Charles saved the day with the majority of his 290 yards rushing. Charles also rescued Texas from defeat at Oklahoma State where the Cowboys held a 35-14 lead going into the fourth quarter. Charles ran for 180 but with an 11 yard per carry average in that game.
Texas outscored Tech in a wild 59-43 game in Austin but then tanked on another revenge opportunity against rival A&M. On a day in which the failed Coach Fran era ended in College Station, A&M dominated Texas with a comfy point cushion for most of the game.
Texas beat Arizona State in a high scoring Holiday Bowl for its 10th win. Arizona State was a good team but they played like crap in that game. Credit Texas for playing with a sense of purpose and applying pressure to Carpenter but the Sun Devils lost 5 turnovers to only one for Texas and there were several balls on the ground that the Texas offense was lucky to recover.
Bottom line, there are as many if not more Q-marks about Texas in 2008. Muschamp is a great hire that will immediately improve the attitude but he has work to do. There is the loss of a stout DT tandem in Frank Okam and Derek Lokey. A freshman secondary facing a pass happy league with quality QBs is not a recipe for immediate results. McCoy will have more protection but the quality and experience combo of his skill players takes a temporary dip. The WRs will be OK but there is no immediate heir apparent for Finley and more importantly Charles. The running back by committee approach doesn't scare defensive coordinators like Charles and his speed. (Why do think Texas was fuming over losing Darnell Scott to Colorado?)
Predicted Record: 8-4 regular season
Oklahoma is superior in trenches and Bradford has his athletic TE (Gresham) and home run threat at RB (Murray). Chase Daniel has something to prove in his home state and will torch the Longhorn secondary. It will be another tough day for the secondary in Lubbock as Tech will beat Texas. I also think Texas will lose at either Colorado or Kansas.
This is a transition year for Texas because of their youth but it will pay dividends for 2009 as they will be back as one of the elite teams in the Big 12 and a factor in the national title race. OU will sub out its starting offensive line in '09 and Missouri and Tech will drop with the departure of their QB and star receivers due to graduation and early entry, respectively.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Games that will decide the Heisman Race
Games to decide the Heisman Race by player....
Tim Tebow (Florida)
at Tennessee 9/20 - rivalry game will get a media spotlight
LSU 10/11 - just another big game in the SEC
Georgia 11/1 - the key game for Tebow
SEC Title game 12/6
Summary: the bar is always raised higher for a returning winner and Tebow's stats on the ground figure to fall with an improved RB position. To repeat, Tebow has to play big while leading the Gators to a national title game appearance or the voters will likely go elsewhere for the sake of variety.
Chase Daniel (Missouri)
Illinois (in St. Louis) 8/30 - this is one of the spotlight games of the opening weekend and a great opportunity for Daniel to get a head start.
at Texas 10/18 - even if Texas is coming off a loss to Oklahoma, the media is going to jump all over Daniel returning to his home state to face the school that ignored him until the last few days of the recruiting process. Texas is vulnerable this year and Daniel could light up the Longhorn secondary. If Missouri wins, the hype-machine on Daniel and the Tigers goes into overdrive in anticipation of a potential rematch with Oklahoma.
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - Missouri is a lock to be in KC on the first Saturday of December but will they be undefeated and in range of a shot at the national title?
Summary: If Chase Daniel leads Missouri past nemesis Oklahoma (likely South winner) in the Big 12 title game and into the national title game, Daniel is your winner no matter what happens with the other guys.
Chris (Beanie) Wells (Ohio State)
at Southern Cal 9/13 - if Wells has a big game against a stout Trojan defense AND the Buckeyes win, Wells takes an early lead but could lose momentum if the Big Ten is as weak as its critics suggest.
at Wisconsin 10/4 - depending on how good the Badgers really are but this will get some media attention.
Michigan 11/22 - Big Blue has no shot to beat Ohio State but its still a marquee rivalry and people still watch.
Summary: the only way for Wells to win it is for Ohio State to win at USC and then hang on to that momentum while Daniel and Tebow need to suffer losses.
Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
Texas (in Dallas) 10/11 - because its a big rivalry and both should be undefeated at the time
Texas Tech 11/22 - could be the game that decides the Big 12 South and a chance to outduel Graham Harrell
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - would likely face fellow Heisman hopeful
Summary: Bradford may be developing into the Tom Brady of college football. Like Stafford at Georgia, he faces the potential his running back may dominate the highlight reel but the numbers should be there. In a QB heavy league, Bradford can score points by outplaying his competition. It's unlikely a sophomore will win it again. Bradford's shot probably rests on going undefeated surviving a process of elimination by the voters.
Matthew Stafford / Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
at LSU 10/25 - any big game win in Baton Rouge will grab attention
Florida 11/1 - showdown with Tebow
at Auburn 11/15 - sure to be a spotlight game in the SEC
SEC Title game 12/6 - final chance to state the case
Summary: Tough schedule and preseason No. 1 ranking carries a lot of attention and pressure. Will Stafford and Moreno take votes from the other?
Pat White (West Virginia)
at Colorado 9/18 - has the Thursday night spotlight all to himself
Auburn 10/23 - voters will closely watch how White fares against an SEC defense
at Pitt 11/28 - Pitt is a popular pick and upset WV last year, game also falls on a holiday weekend
S. Florida 12/6 - could decide the Big East championship
Summary: White is outstanding but the Mountaineers probably have to punch a ticket to the national title game for him to win it.
Tim Tebow (Florida)
at Tennessee 9/20 - rivalry game will get a media spotlight
LSU 10/11 - just another big game in the SEC
Georgia 11/1 - the key game for Tebow
SEC Title game 12/6
Summary: the bar is always raised higher for a returning winner and Tebow's stats on the ground figure to fall with an improved RB position. To repeat, Tebow has to play big while leading the Gators to a national title game appearance or the voters will likely go elsewhere for the sake of variety.
Chase Daniel (Missouri)
Illinois (in St. Louis) 8/30 - this is one of the spotlight games of the opening weekend and a great opportunity for Daniel to get a head start.
at Texas 10/18 - even if Texas is coming off a loss to Oklahoma, the media is going to jump all over Daniel returning to his home state to face the school that ignored him until the last few days of the recruiting process. Texas is vulnerable this year and Daniel could light up the Longhorn secondary. If Missouri wins, the hype-machine on Daniel and the Tigers goes into overdrive in anticipation of a potential rematch with Oklahoma.
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - Missouri is a lock to be in KC on the first Saturday of December but will they be undefeated and in range of a shot at the national title?
Summary: If Chase Daniel leads Missouri past nemesis Oklahoma (likely South winner) in the Big 12 title game and into the national title game, Daniel is your winner no matter what happens with the other guys.
Chris (Beanie) Wells (Ohio State)
at Southern Cal 9/13 - if Wells has a big game against a stout Trojan defense AND the Buckeyes win, Wells takes an early lead but could lose momentum if the Big Ten is as weak as its critics suggest.
at Wisconsin 10/4 - depending on how good the Badgers really are but this will get some media attention.
Michigan 11/22 - Big Blue has no shot to beat Ohio State but its still a marquee rivalry and people still watch.
Summary: the only way for Wells to win it is for Ohio State to win at USC and then hang on to that momentum while Daniel and Tebow need to suffer losses.
Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
Texas (in Dallas) 10/11 - because its a big rivalry and both should be undefeated at the time
Texas Tech 11/22 - could be the game that decides the Big 12 South and a chance to outduel Graham Harrell
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - would likely face fellow Heisman hopeful
Summary: Bradford may be developing into the Tom Brady of college football. Like Stafford at Georgia, he faces the potential his running back may dominate the highlight reel but the numbers should be there. In a QB heavy league, Bradford can score points by outplaying his competition. It's unlikely a sophomore will win it again. Bradford's shot probably rests on going undefeated surviving a process of elimination by the voters.
Matthew Stafford / Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
at LSU 10/25 - any big game win in Baton Rouge will grab attention
Florida 11/1 - showdown with Tebow
at Auburn 11/15 - sure to be a spotlight game in the SEC
SEC Title game 12/6 - final chance to state the case
Summary: Tough schedule and preseason No. 1 ranking carries a lot of attention and pressure. Will Stafford and Moreno take votes from the other?
Pat White (West Virginia)
at Colorado 9/18 - has the Thursday night spotlight all to himself
Auburn 10/23 - voters will closely watch how White fares against an SEC defense
at Pitt 11/28 - Pitt is a popular pick and upset WV last year, game also falls on a holiday weekend
S. Florida 12/6 - could decide the Big East championship
Summary: White is outstanding but the Mountaineers probably have to punch a ticket to the national title game for him to win it.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Best chance to go undefeated...
Forget for a moment about the scenarios that could unfold in which there is a beauty contest between one loss teams......one of the great fears of the college football fan is to see a BCS conference team go undefeated due to a weak schedule. It would be extremely hard to see a situation in which an undefeated BCS conference champ lost a spot in the title game to a one loss champ from a stronger BCS conference.
Simply looking at the best chance to go undefeated during the regular season, here are my picks and why:
USC - the stout defense can carry the offense early if need be, Young Sanchez has the benefit of a home crowd in 2008 version of Game of the Century against Ohio State, the Pac-10 is down this year.
Ohio State - obviously they would have to beat the team above, but the Big Ten just doesn't appear that challenging. The two games that stand in the way would be at Wisconsin and at Illinois. For some reason I think the addition of Terrelle Pryor will help the Buckeyes stay upset-free during their conference season.
Clemson - I can't believe I am putting Tommy Bowden in this positon but it's totally based on talent at the skill positions and a very favorable schedule. If they get past Alabama, the only other ranked team on their schedule is Wake Forest. They could get beat by Wake or S. Carolina in the finale but the Gamers have to come to Death Valley.
Oklahoma - talent, experience in the trenches and at QB and even though the Big 12 may challenge the SEC for the toughest league label, OU's schedule is favorable as they meet their most talented opponents on a neutral field (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). The key to avoiding the upset plague of the past - more consistency on the road.
Missouri - I predict the Tigers to go 12-0 before losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Missouri will beat Illinois and I think they will take advantage of the Longhorns' growing pains in the secondary to steal a win in Austin. I think people are overrating the potential significance of this year's Missouri-Kansas game. If Chase Daniel can get over the Oklahoma hump, they will be 13-0 and heading to Miami.
Florida - the Gators play in the ultra-competitive SEC but they get a favorable draw with home and away. The Cocktail Party is neutral. The offense should be unstoppable. The injuries on defense are a concern but a lot of experience was gained last year.
Georgia - the schedule is too tough and while Matthew Stafford will likely be cashing a big bonus check in the near future, his track record with the pads is being ignored by those pumping him up due to summer workouts in a t-shirt and shorts. The loss of the LT Sturdivant is a big blow. Off-the field issues could linger but more than anything, the burden of No. 1 is tough - plenty of teams from last year would agree.
West Virginia - Bill Stewart won more than just the most ridiculous looking bowl trophy in college football by beating Oklahoma, he won a full-time gig. I think Stewart will follow the path of Larry Coker and I'm not alone in that view but he still has Pat White and Noel Devine to run up and down the field. Defensive losses open the door too much for an improving Big East. WV also has to travel to upset-minded Colorado for a Thursday night game long before the CU students would even think about ditching the stands for the slopes.
Simply looking at the best chance to go undefeated during the regular season, here are my picks and why:
USC - the stout defense can carry the offense early if need be, Young Sanchez has the benefit of a home crowd in 2008 version of Game of the Century against Ohio State, the Pac-10 is down this year.
Ohio State - obviously they would have to beat the team above, but the Big Ten just doesn't appear that challenging. The two games that stand in the way would be at Wisconsin and at Illinois. For some reason I think the addition of Terrelle Pryor will help the Buckeyes stay upset-free during their conference season.
Clemson - I can't believe I am putting Tommy Bowden in this positon but it's totally based on talent at the skill positions and a very favorable schedule. If they get past Alabama, the only other ranked team on their schedule is Wake Forest. They could get beat by Wake or S. Carolina in the finale but the Gamers have to come to Death Valley.
Oklahoma - talent, experience in the trenches and at QB and even though the Big 12 may challenge the SEC for the toughest league label, OU's schedule is favorable as they meet their most talented opponents on a neutral field (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). The key to avoiding the upset plague of the past - more consistency on the road.
Missouri - I predict the Tigers to go 12-0 before losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Missouri will beat Illinois and I think they will take advantage of the Longhorns' growing pains in the secondary to steal a win in Austin. I think people are overrating the potential significance of this year's Missouri-Kansas game. If Chase Daniel can get over the Oklahoma hump, they will be 13-0 and heading to Miami.
Florida - the Gators play in the ultra-competitive SEC but they get a favorable draw with home and away. The Cocktail Party is neutral. The offense should be unstoppable. The injuries on defense are a concern but a lot of experience was gained last year.
Georgia - the schedule is too tough and while Matthew Stafford will likely be cashing a big bonus check in the near future, his track record with the pads is being ignored by those pumping him up due to summer workouts in a t-shirt and shorts. The loss of the LT Sturdivant is a big blow. Off-the field issues could linger but more than anything, the burden of No. 1 is tough - plenty of teams from last year would agree.
West Virginia - Bill Stewart won more than just the most ridiculous looking bowl trophy in college football by beating Oklahoma, he won a full-time gig. I think Stewart will follow the path of Larry Coker and I'm not alone in that view but he still has Pat White and Noel Devine to run up and down the field. Defensive losses open the door too much for an improving Big East. WV also has to travel to upset-minded Colorado for a Thursday night game long before the CU students would even think about ditching the stands for the slopes.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
ESPN Gameday's Entourage
Two great things are about to begin again - college football and finally a new season of Entourage.
On the drive to work, for some reason I started comparing the ESPN Gameday crew to the Entourage crew....
Vincent Chase - there is no debate here, easily Kirk Herbstreit. Herbie could close the deal on a campus visit like Vince could at any spot in LA.
Eric "E" Murphy - Chris Fowler. They both run the show.
Johnny "Drama" Chase - Lee Corso. So many similarities in their career histories.
Turtle - Desmond Howard. On occasion, Howard has put on the pads and the helmet for demonstration. It sort of reminds me when Turtle had to throw on the pads to train Arnold the dog or when he supposed to wear the bunny suit to close the Shanna Moakler character to win a bet for Drama.
On the drive to work, for some reason I started comparing the ESPN Gameday crew to the Entourage crew....
Vincent Chase - there is no debate here, easily Kirk Herbstreit. Herbie could close the deal on a campus visit like Vince could at any spot in LA.
Eric "E" Murphy - Chris Fowler. They both run the show.
Johnny "Drama" Chase - Lee Corso. So many similarities in their career histories.
Turtle - Desmond Howard. On occasion, Howard has put on the pads and the helmet for demonstration. It sort of reminds me when Turtle had to throw on the pads to train Arnold the dog or when he supposed to wear the bunny suit to close the Shanna Moakler character to win a bet for Drama.
ESPN favors Buckeyes and Sooners
The Espire revealed the picks of its college football staff and the majority favors the two BCS whipping boys - Oklahoma and Ohio State. The rest of the college football world might have a major power down. Both are 0 for their last 2 championship games with different levels of embarrassment. Given the recent history, what is the majority at ESPN thinking?
Ohio State - loaded with talent and experience. The USC game might be make or break for the Bucks in the eyes of the voters but Ohio State might be a trendy pick for two reasons 1) never underestimate the power to prove the doubters wrong and 2) Terrelle Pryor figures to play the role of Tim Tebow of 2006 and the Ryan Perrilloux of 2007. Ohio State would rather host USC but they are playing the Trojans as they break in new faces on offense and Sanchez might still be favoring the knee. If Ohio State can escape LA with a win, they only have to guard against the upset in the Big Ten.
Oklahoma - strong in the trenches, solid QB and tons of skill players. OU has inexperience concerns at LB and at corner. Nic Harris is one of the top safeties in the country and Lendy Holmes is versatile enough to move from safety to corner depending on the need. If the Sooners' defensive line lives up to its potential, it will take a lot of pressure off the back 7. The Sooners have a favorable schedule. The toughest opponents in terms of talent are at neutral sites (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). Oklahoma's main concern is consistency and avoiding the road upset.
Those selections probably are as much as process of elimination as anything. Ohio State likely would need to be undefeated. Oklahoma would likely need to be undefeated as well. If Georgia or Florida has one loss, the SEC would get preferential treatment in a comparison of equal loss teams from other BCS conferences. The guess is that the Espire's majority thinks Ohio State will beat USC (surprising) and will cruise through the weak Big Ten....Oklahoma will take advantage of its favorable schedule, shake their upset plague and once again beat Missouri...the SEC is just too tough....West Virginia will lose at least one game in the Big East or perhaps at Colorado or at home vs. Auburn.
The fact that most college football fans probably don't want to see that matchup makes it more likely. The college football gods don't care what you think. They like to tease and throw curves. They like to create controversy in the form of too many teams with no losses, one loss or even two losses. They like to create mass chaos which pretty much sums up last year and especially the final day of the regular season.
Ohio State - loaded with talent and experience. The USC game might be make or break for the Bucks in the eyes of the voters but Ohio State might be a trendy pick for two reasons 1) never underestimate the power to prove the doubters wrong and 2) Terrelle Pryor figures to play the role of Tim Tebow of 2006 and the Ryan Perrilloux of 2007. Ohio State would rather host USC but they are playing the Trojans as they break in new faces on offense and Sanchez might still be favoring the knee. If Ohio State can escape LA with a win, they only have to guard against the upset in the Big Ten.
Oklahoma - strong in the trenches, solid QB and tons of skill players. OU has inexperience concerns at LB and at corner. Nic Harris is one of the top safeties in the country and Lendy Holmes is versatile enough to move from safety to corner depending on the need. If the Sooners' defensive line lives up to its potential, it will take a lot of pressure off the back 7. The Sooners have a favorable schedule. The toughest opponents in terms of talent are at neutral sites (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). Oklahoma's main concern is consistency and avoiding the road upset.
Those selections probably are as much as process of elimination as anything. Ohio State likely would need to be undefeated. Oklahoma would likely need to be undefeated as well. If Georgia or Florida has one loss, the SEC would get preferential treatment in a comparison of equal loss teams from other BCS conferences. The guess is that the Espire's majority thinks Ohio State will beat USC (surprising) and will cruise through the weak Big Ten....Oklahoma will take advantage of its favorable schedule, shake their upset plague and once again beat Missouri...the SEC is just too tough....West Virginia will lose at least one game in the Big East or perhaps at Colorado or at home vs. Auburn.
The fact that most college football fans probably don't want to see that matchup makes it more likely. The college football gods don't care what you think. They like to tease and throw curves. They like to create controversy in the form of too many teams with no losses, one loss or even two losses. They like to create mass chaos which pretty much sums up last year and especially the final day of the regular season.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
The Boys are Back
...not the 'Entourage' crew, the ESPN College Gameday boys returned yesterday for their Season Preview Special. On a side note, ESPN could likely make their own Entourage show starring either Kirk Herbstreit or Erin Andrews.
A couple of things about the show stood out to me. One, Herbstreit called Matthew Stafford the best QB in the country. The exhibition stuff he does in a t-shirt and shorts is apparently the stuff of legends and will no doubt attract the eye of the NFL soon but the numbers when he puts on the pads and the helmet are not even close to the top QBs in college football. (see my earlier breakdown of his career to date)
Holtz should not be allowed to comment on anything Notre Dame. 10 or 11 wins? He had the same type of prediction last year. ESPN's producers are probably just trying to setup the sparring sessions to come between Holtz and Mark May.
Fowler claimed no other conference was even close to the SEC this year. Not so fast. The Big 12 has a shot to be close or its equal....this year. A few years ago, the Big 12 overall was a joke but the balance provided by Missouri and Kansas with the potential of Tech as a BCS sleeper this year has dramatically improved the Big 12's rep. Now if Oklahoma can just show up in a BCS game they way they approach the Big 12 title games.
I realize the SEC owns the last two national champions but LSU has had the ultimate luxury of playing their BCS games as virtual home games inside the Superdome, Florida's loss to Michigan was perhaps the most shocking result of the bowl season and that Arkansas team that beat LSU in Baton Rouge got blown out by the Big 12's Missouri in which Tony Temple was somehow the best back on the field despite the presence of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
A lot of surprising love for Ohio State from the panel. Most of the media has banished them from legit title discussion despite their high ranking again. The consensus believes they will get bumped in LA and the voters will see to it they don't get to Miami by winning a weak Big Ten. More surprising was that Herbie picked USC and Florida to get to the title game - not his Buckeyes. The same Lou Holtz that predicts double digit wins for the Irish predicted a title game of the BCS whipping boys - Ohio State and Oklahoma. Corso selected USC over Missouri.
I no longer clear my schedule for 'Gameday.' I might watch the open but its become a TIVO event for me because too much of the 60 Minutes documentaries or feel good stories. The analysis looks more and more like it originates from Gameday's producers rather than the on-screen talent. But, it's still the best there is for a preview...
A couple of things about the show stood out to me. One, Herbstreit called Matthew Stafford the best QB in the country. The exhibition stuff he does in a t-shirt and shorts is apparently the stuff of legends and will no doubt attract the eye of the NFL soon but the numbers when he puts on the pads and the helmet are not even close to the top QBs in college football. (see my earlier breakdown of his career to date)
Holtz should not be allowed to comment on anything Notre Dame. 10 or 11 wins? He had the same type of prediction last year. ESPN's producers are probably just trying to setup the sparring sessions to come between Holtz and Mark May.
Fowler claimed no other conference was even close to the SEC this year. Not so fast. The Big 12 has a shot to be close or its equal....this year. A few years ago, the Big 12 overall was a joke but the balance provided by Missouri and Kansas with the potential of Tech as a BCS sleeper this year has dramatically improved the Big 12's rep. Now if Oklahoma can just show up in a BCS game they way they approach the Big 12 title games.
I realize the SEC owns the last two national champions but LSU has had the ultimate luxury of playing their BCS games as virtual home games inside the Superdome, Florida's loss to Michigan was perhaps the most shocking result of the bowl season and that Arkansas team that beat LSU in Baton Rouge got blown out by the Big 12's Missouri in which Tony Temple was somehow the best back on the field despite the presence of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
A lot of surprising love for Ohio State from the panel. Most of the media has banished them from legit title discussion despite their high ranking again. The consensus believes they will get bumped in LA and the voters will see to it they don't get to Miami by winning a weak Big Ten. More surprising was that Herbie picked USC and Florida to get to the title game - not his Buckeyes. The same Lou Holtz that predicts double digit wins for the Irish predicted a title game of the BCS whipping boys - Ohio State and Oklahoma. Corso selected USC over Missouri.
I no longer clear my schedule for 'Gameday.' I might watch the open but its become a TIVO event for me because too much of the 60 Minutes documentaries or feel good stories. The analysis looks more and more like it originates from Gameday's producers rather than the on-screen talent. But, it's still the best there is for a preview...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
ESPN's Love for Missouri
ESPN's lovefest for Missouri and Chase Daniel is just beginning. The Espire's (my affectionate term for ESPN) Big 12 blogger Tim Griffin gives Missouri the edge over Oklahoma. Bruce Feldman thinks Missouri going to win the national title and I assume that means he thinks Chase Daniel wins the Heisman.
I'm actually with Feldman for the first 12 games of the year. I think Missouri is good enough to remain undefeated up until the Big 12 title game. They will beat Illinois and cruise through the remainder of their non-conference. Pelini was a good hire but Nebraska will be in no position to pull off a win over Missouri. The teams that might be able to score with the Tigers and therefore possibly pull off an 'upset' - Oklahoma State, Colorado and K-State - have to travel to Columbia. I think KU will come back to earth and will be no match for Missouri at Arrowhead in the regular season finale. The 12-0 regular season really comes down to beating Texas in Austin. I think Chase Daniel will return to his home state and leave happy.
Texas struggled last year and given their losses to graduation and early entry, they are still a young team in transition with 4 returning starters on defense and a vulnerable secondary. The Horns got drilled by K-State and barely beat a poor Nebraska team in Austin. Muschamp is a great hire but there is too much work to be done this year. Texas will be back in 2009 but I think they could fall below their impressive streak of 10-win seasons.
So, the stage is set for Missouri and Chase Daniel. 60 minutes away from a Big 12 championship, the BCS title game shot, a Heisman for Daniel and getting the Oklahoma monkey off the back. I don't know whether or not Oklahoma will be in position for the BCS title game or not when they face Missouri again. The Sooners need to show me something (this coming from a die-hard) in the way of consistency - particularly playing better in true road settings - before I predict the Big 12 game to be a true national championship semi-final game.
I fully expect Missouri to be billed by the media as the favorite at that point, especially if Oklahoma loses a game to say K-State or Oklahoma State. What I don't get is the media going with Missouri over OU at the start of the season. Is it the depature of Curtis Lofton, who seemed to be in the right place for key plays in last year's meetings, or is it the youth of the Oklahoma secondary? "Missouri seems determined and focused"......we heard the same stuff last year.
Oklahoma and Missouri have played three times in the last two seasons - all OU wins by scores of 26-10, 41-31 and 38-17. There are many variables but the key element was the red zone dominance of Oklahoma. The Sooners scored TDs while Missouri was settling for a lot of FGs. Take last year's Big 12 title game. In the second half, the score was Oklahoma 28-17. Both teams had actually scored four times but Oklahoma had 4 TDs while Missouri had 3 FGs, one TD and a two point conversion.
Missouri has actually had a lot of success moving the ball between the 20s but when the field is vertically limited inside the red zone, Oklahoma's power running game and Missouri's lack of one has been the key difference between the two teams. The red zone dominance reflects the superiority of Oklahoma in the trenches and that isn't going to change in 2008. Oklahoma has one of the best offensive lines in the country and probably one of the best defensive lines. Also consider that the Sooners most explosive player, DeMarco Murray, was a non-factor in the game in Norman and injured during the Big 12 title game.
Missouri would have a fair amount of fans at a Big 12 title game in Arrowhead but it's not like Sooner fans haven't made plenty of trips to KC. Oklahoma has won 3 of their 5 Big 12 titles in Kansas City - two of which were in a deep freeze.
I'm actually with Feldman for the first 12 games of the year. I think Missouri is good enough to remain undefeated up until the Big 12 title game. They will beat Illinois and cruise through the remainder of their non-conference. Pelini was a good hire but Nebraska will be in no position to pull off a win over Missouri. The teams that might be able to score with the Tigers and therefore possibly pull off an 'upset' - Oklahoma State, Colorado and K-State - have to travel to Columbia. I think KU will come back to earth and will be no match for Missouri at Arrowhead in the regular season finale. The 12-0 regular season really comes down to beating Texas in Austin. I think Chase Daniel will return to his home state and leave happy.
Texas struggled last year and given their losses to graduation and early entry, they are still a young team in transition with 4 returning starters on defense and a vulnerable secondary. The Horns got drilled by K-State and barely beat a poor Nebraska team in Austin. Muschamp is a great hire but there is too much work to be done this year. Texas will be back in 2009 but I think they could fall below their impressive streak of 10-win seasons.
So, the stage is set for Missouri and Chase Daniel. 60 minutes away from a Big 12 championship, the BCS title game shot, a Heisman for Daniel and getting the Oklahoma monkey off the back. I don't know whether or not Oklahoma will be in position for the BCS title game or not when they face Missouri again. The Sooners need to show me something (this coming from a die-hard) in the way of consistency - particularly playing better in true road settings - before I predict the Big 12 game to be a true national championship semi-final game.
I fully expect Missouri to be billed by the media as the favorite at that point, especially if Oklahoma loses a game to say K-State or Oklahoma State. What I don't get is the media going with Missouri over OU at the start of the season. Is it the depature of Curtis Lofton, who seemed to be in the right place for key plays in last year's meetings, or is it the youth of the Oklahoma secondary? "Missouri seems determined and focused"......we heard the same stuff last year.
Oklahoma and Missouri have played three times in the last two seasons - all OU wins by scores of 26-10, 41-31 and 38-17. There are many variables but the key element was the red zone dominance of Oklahoma. The Sooners scored TDs while Missouri was settling for a lot of FGs. Take last year's Big 12 title game. In the second half, the score was Oklahoma 28-17. Both teams had actually scored four times but Oklahoma had 4 TDs while Missouri had 3 FGs, one TD and a two point conversion.
Missouri has actually had a lot of success moving the ball between the 20s but when the field is vertically limited inside the red zone, Oklahoma's power running game and Missouri's lack of one has been the key difference between the two teams. The red zone dominance reflects the superiority of Oklahoma in the trenches and that isn't going to change in 2008. Oklahoma has one of the best offensive lines in the country and probably one of the best defensive lines. Also consider that the Sooners most explosive player, DeMarco Murray, was a non-factor in the game in Norman and injured during the Big 12 title game.
Missouri would have a fair amount of fans at a Big 12 title game in Arrowhead but it's not like Sooner fans haven't made plenty of trips to KC. Oklahoma has won 3 of their 5 Big 12 titles in Kansas City - two of which were in a deep freeze.
Tap the Brakes on Stafford and Georgia
Georgia has the talent to win the national title - at least I think they do - but there are too many factors working against them. Tough schedule. Distractions. Questions.
Every assessment of Georgia talks about their schedule and the SEC. Consecutive early road trips to S. Carolina and Arizona State. Baton Rouge. The Cocktail Party against Superman and a Florida team that will be looking for revenge. At Auburn. Georgia can beat them all but they won't.
Georgia has not handled things well since thumping Hawaii in the Sugar. Off-the-field trouble is becoming the norm in college football but the number of UGA players involving in such activity Georgia is alarming. How many players are suspended for the opener? Georgia will still beat Georgia Southern but off-the-field trouble can linger. (ask Texas) It's becoming increasing tougher to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or even No. 2. Check the number of 1-2 teams that lost to unranked teams last year. Georgia has been hyped since the end of last season.
The final issue is that the so-called experts are allowing their view of what Matthew Stafford might do at an NFL combine in Feb '09 or '10 overshadow the need for him to polish his current game. He has all the tools but the track record is just not that impressive. I don't put much stock in Stafford's freshman stats - only to set the comparison to the sophomore year where there should be significant improvement. The results are mixed.
Stafford's TD to INT ratio improved from 7/13 in his freshman year to 19/10 during the sophomore campaign. However, his completion percentage (CP) only improved from 53% to 56%. Many times soph QBs will improve their numbers as the season goes along. However, that is not the case with Stafford. In fact, his highest CP was 75% in the opener against Oklahoma State. The second highest (and only remaining CP over 70%) was two weeks later against W. Carolina. On three occasions during the season, Stafford's CP was under 50% and those were actually spread out - one in each third of the season. Another interesting find was Stafford had only one game with a CP of 60%+ during the months of October and November. The CP trend line was declining the entire month of November.
I have nothing against either Georgia or Stafford but the the pre-season No. 1 gets the closest look and ESPN personalities can't stop raving about this guy and his shot at perhaps a Heisman Trophy. The opportunity is there as with any QB on a national title contender but his track record just doesn't compare with other QBs across the country - at least not yet and now he won't have his starting LT for all of 2008 to protect his blindside.
Every assessment of Georgia talks about their schedule and the SEC. Consecutive early road trips to S. Carolina and Arizona State. Baton Rouge. The Cocktail Party against Superman and a Florida team that will be looking for revenge. At Auburn. Georgia can beat them all but they won't.
Georgia has not handled things well since thumping Hawaii in the Sugar. Off-the-field trouble is becoming the norm in college football but the number of UGA players involving in such activity Georgia is alarming. How many players are suspended for the opener? Georgia will still beat Georgia Southern but off-the-field trouble can linger. (ask Texas) It's becoming increasing tougher to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or even No. 2. Check the number of 1-2 teams that lost to unranked teams last year. Georgia has been hyped since the end of last season.
The final issue is that the so-called experts are allowing their view of what Matthew Stafford might do at an NFL combine in Feb '09 or '10 overshadow the need for him to polish his current game. He has all the tools but the track record is just not that impressive. I don't put much stock in Stafford's freshman stats - only to set the comparison to the sophomore year where there should be significant improvement. The results are mixed.
Stafford's TD to INT ratio improved from 7/13 in his freshman year to 19/10 during the sophomore campaign. However, his completion percentage (CP) only improved from 53% to 56%. Many times soph QBs will improve their numbers as the season goes along. However, that is not the case with Stafford. In fact, his highest CP was 75% in the opener against Oklahoma State. The second highest (and only remaining CP over 70%) was two weeks later against W. Carolina. On three occasions during the season, Stafford's CP was under 50% and those were actually spread out - one in each third of the season. Another interesting find was Stafford had only one game with a CP of 60%+ during the months of October and November. The CP trend line was declining the entire month of November.
I have nothing against either Georgia or Stafford but the the pre-season No. 1 gets the closest look and ESPN personalities can't stop raving about this guy and his shot at perhaps a Heisman Trophy. The opportunity is there as with any QB on a national title contender but his track record just doesn't compare with other QBs across the country - at least not yet and now he won't have his starting LT for all of 2008 to protect his blindside.
The Second Act
After coming to the realization the entire sports universe is going the way of the blog - even ESPN.com - and getting tired of posting the longest responses on message boards, I'm giving this blog thing another shot.
Last season is long gone. The pre-season mags have been out since June and the pre-season rankings are the hot topic - that and the number of players missing the opener for Georgia. Speaking of Georgia, no surprise as the pre-season No. 1 but I don't think they will stay there and that was before the injury to their starting LT. Georgia is talented but every day they look more and more like the team that might disappoint the most.
First and foremost, its tougher for teams to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or 2. Go back to the number of teams last year that moved up with solid play only to look average at best in the spotlight and fall quickly and many times to an unranked team that had no business pulling off an upset. Will the upsets continue this year? The overall trend line of upsets vs. history will continue to increase but the sheer number won't reach last year. I think college football's traditional powers will continue to occupy the top 'floors' of rankings but upsets will reshuffle the occupants more frequently.
I don't think we will see the two loss thing for a while but the debate over the one-loss teams will be almost an annual thing - which leads us to strength of schedule talk. Once upon a time it was in the BCS but taken out. Many schools, like Texas, have elected to stay away from high profile series in the future like the one they recently had with Ohio State. Oklahoma is going the opposite direction which is why their highly respected AD Joe Castiglione has been advocating SOS be put back into the equation.
The way the system is setup, it would appear Texas is making the right move by taking the path of least resistance. Their thought is don't take a lot of risk in the non-conference because if they can go undefeated in the Big 12, chances are they get in. However, it actually may work against teams with that approach. A couple of years ago some argued it was harder to win a title in the more competitive SEC because of the difficulty in staying unbeaten vs. say USC in the Pac-10 or Ohio State in the Big Ten. It's a foregone conclusion that an undefeated BCS team would likely get into the national title game over a one-loss BCS team no matter the circumstances or particular BCS conference. However, parity is resulting in fewer BCS undefeateds and the trend is likely to continue. Therefore, in a comparison of one-loss teams, conference reputation and the non-conference schedule may be the deciding factor after all. It certainly worked for the SEC the last two years.
Last season is long gone. The pre-season mags have been out since June and the pre-season rankings are the hot topic - that and the number of players missing the opener for Georgia. Speaking of Georgia, no surprise as the pre-season No. 1 but I don't think they will stay there and that was before the injury to their starting LT. Georgia is talented but every day they look more and more like the team that might disappoint the most.
First and foremost, its tougher for teams to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or 2. Go back to the number of teams last year that moved up with solid play only to look average at best in the spotlight and fall quickly and many times to an unranked team that had no business pulling off an upset. Will the upsets continue this year? The overall trend line of upsets vs. history will continue to increase but the sheer number won't reach last year. I think college football's traditional powers will continue to occupy the top 'floors' of rankings but upsets will reshuffle the occupants more frequently.
I don't think we will see the two loss thing for a while but the debate over the one-loss teams will be almost an annual thing - which leads us to strength of schedule talk. Once upon a time it was in the BCS but taken out. Many schools, like Texas, have elected to stay away from high profile series in the future like the one they recently had with Ohio State. Oklahoma is going the opposite direction which is why their highly respected AD Joe Castiglione has been advocating SOS be put back into the equation.
The way the system is setup, it would appear Texas is making the right move by taking the path of least resistance. Their thought is don't take a lot of risk in the non-conference because if they can go undefeated in the Big 12, chances are they get in. However, it actually may work against teams with that approach. A couple of years ago some argued it was harder to win a title in the more competitive SEC because of the difficulty in staying unbeaten vs. say USC in the Pac-10 or Ohio State in the Big Ten. It's a foregone conclusion that an undefeated BCS team would likely get into the national title game over a one-loss BCS team no matter the circumstances or particular BCS conference. However, parity is resulting in fewer BCS undefeateds and the trend is likely to continue. Therefore, in a comparison of one-loss teams, conference reputation and the non-conference schedule may be the deciding factor after all. It certainly worked for the SEC the last two years.
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