The perfect setup for a national title

It doesn't appear that USC will face much resistance the remainder of the season. They might get a scare if they overlook an opponent with some talent but they should be upset-proof in a mediocre Pac-10 conference. Most of the in-conference teams that might be able to hang for a while (with breaks) have to visit the Coliseum. Just don't see another Stanford.

USC has been brilliant in BCS games under Carroll. The loss to Texas was a classic game and the result of a super-human performance by Vince Young and the Longhorn defense stopping the inside run on the defining play of the game.

However, the USC players talked about complacency as the cause of last year's Stanford loss. They vow it won't happen again and it probably won't in the regular season. The question is that if USC cruises through a weak Pac-10, could it re-appear before the title game? No doubt ESPN will build them up as a candidate for greatest of all time - as they did before the Texas game.

Time and time again we see teams that have it too easy get overconfident, lose focus and are stunned at the first sign of a challenge. There is no way Oklahoma should have lost to Arkansas in the late 70s. No way Miami should have lost to Penn State in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl. Overconfidence played a role in Alabama's shocking upset over Miami in the early 1990s or Florida State's inept performance against Oklahoma in the 2001 Orange Bowl.

The best recipe for a team other than USC to win a national title is for the challenger to become battle tested through a tougher conference to counter the Carroll's post-season mojo. Right now the prime contender seems to be the winner of a potential Big 12 title game with Oklahoma/Missouri or perhaps the winner of Georgia/Florida. That rounds out the current top 5. Don't worry about the polls and a snub so early in the year.

Oklahoma's schedule is more favorable than Georgia's as they play Texas on a neutral field like the Bulldogs do with the Gators. However, quality and potentially dangerous teams Kansas and Texas Tech have to play in Norman. The Sooners have been extremely vulnerable on the road in recent years. 1-2 last year with the win being a near disaster against a poor Iowa State team. Saturday was a sign this Oklahoma team might be different. I think every rational Sooner fan expected some kind of struggle - at least early. Instead, the Sooners cruised in every way possible. Sam Bradford, who actually looked like a rookie on the road last year, looked as calm and cool as he would have in Norman. Oklahoma is virtually unbeatable in Norman but it looks like they are going to take more of their A or B game on the road to upset-minded K-State, A&M and Oklahoma State.

Missouri continues to roll up PlayStation type numbers and they have a favorable schedule outside of the trip to Austin which they have to win to get into the national title mix. The Tigers are a confident bunch and I'm sure they would prefer to see Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game to get over that hurdle and get a lot of respect.

Georgia has potential but they did not impress on Saturday. Still, it's early and the schedule is there to make an impression. Matthew Stafford is a quality player but still does not belong in the category of elite college QBs right now. The Bulldogs got a major break with the fumble that prevented a potential OT game. Florida did not look sharp against Miami but they have the talent and a somewhat favorable draw in the SEC this year.


If USC ends up playing Oklahoma, I can easily see a scenario in which the consensus and the Trojans themselves think it will be a cakewalk because of what happened in the 2005 Orange Bowl. All things considered, it would be the best scenario for what would be a battle-tested Oklahoma club that plays well with a chip on their shoulder. Georgia or Florida probably would not be as overlooked by USC. Hard to say with Missouri.


So far the upsets don't seem to be a lot of flukes like last year, just confirming that the polls need to be adjusted. We'll see. Lots of football to be played.