The Espire revealed the picks of its college football staff and the majority favors the two BCS whipping boys - Oklahoma and Ohio State. The rest of the college football world might have a major power down. Both are 0 for their last 2 championship games with different levels of embarrassment. Given the recent history, what is the majority at ESPN thinking?
Ohio State - loaded with talent and experience. The USC game might be make or break for the Bucks in the eyes of the voters but Ohio State might be a trendy pick for two reasons 1) never underestimate the power to prove the doubters wrong and 2) Terrelle Pryor figures to play the role of Tim Tebow of 2006 and the Ryan Perrilloux of 2007. Ohio State would rather host USC but they are playing the Trojans as they break in new faces on offense and Sanchez might still be favoring the knee. If Ohio State can escape LA with a win, they only have to guard against the upset in the Big Ten.
Oklahoma - strong in the trenches, solid QB and tons of skill players. OU has inexperience concerns at LB and at corner. Nic Harris is one of the top safeties in the country and Lendy Holmes is versatile enough to move from safety to corner depending on the need. If the Sooners' defensive line lives up to its potential, it will take a lot of pressure off the back 7. The Sooners have a favorable schedule. The toughest opponents in terms of talent are at neutral sites (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). Oklahoma's main concern is consistency and avoiding the road upset.
Those selections probably are as much as process of elimination as anything. Ohio State likely would need to be undefeated. Oklahoma would likely need to be undefeated as well. If Georgia or Florida has one loss, the SEC would get preferential treatment in a comparison of equal loss teams from other BCS conferences. The guess is that the Espire's majority thinks Ohio State will beat USC (surprising) and will cruise through the weak Big Ten....Oklahoma will take advantage of its favorable schedule, shake their upset plague and once again beat Missouri...the SEC is just too tough....West Virginia will lose at least one game in the Big East or perhaps at Colorado or at home vs. Auburn.
The fact that most college football fans probably don't want to see that matchup makes it more likely. The college football gods don't care what you think. They like to tease and throw curves. They like to create controversy in the form of too many teams with no losses, one loss or even two losses. They like to create mass chaos which pretty much sums up last year and especially the final day of the regular season.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Sunday, August 24, 2008
The Boys are Back
...not the 'Entourage' crew, the ESPN College Gameday boys returned yesterday for their Season Preview Special. On a side note, ESPN could likely make their own Entourage show starring either Kirk Herbstreit or Erin Andrews.
A couple of things about the show stood out to me. One, Herbstreit called Matthew Stafford the best QB in the country. The exhibition stuff he does in a t-shirt and shorts is apparently the stuff of legends and will no doubt attract the eye of the NFL soon but the numbers when he puts on the pads and the helmet are not even close to the top QBs in college football. (see my earlier breakdown of his career to date)
Holtz should not be allowed to comment on anything Notre Dame. 10 or 11 wins? He had the same type of prediction last year. ESPN's producers are probably just trying to setup the sparring sessions to come between Holtz and Mark May.
Fowler claimed no other conference was even close to the SEC this year. Not so fast. The Big 12 has a shot to be close or its equal....this year. A few years ago, the Big 12 overall was a joke but the balance provided by Missouri and Kansas with the potential of Tech as a BCS sleeper this year has dramatically improved the Big 12's rep. Now if Oklahoma can just show up in a BCS game they way they approach the Big 12 title games.
I realize the SEC owns the last two national champions but LSU has had the ultimate luxury of playing their BCS games as virtual home games inside the Superdome, Florida's loss to Michigan was perhaps the most shocking result of the bowl season and that Arkansas team that beat LSU in Baton Rouge got blown out by the Big 12's Missouri in which Tony Temple was somehow the best back on the field despite the presence of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
A lot of surprising love for Ohio State from the panel. Most of the media has banished them from legit title discussion despite their high ranking again. The consensus believes they will get bumped in LA and the voters will see to it they don't get to Miami by winning a weak Big Ten. More surprising was that Herbie picked USC and Florida to get to the title game - not his Buckeyes. The same Lou Holtz that predicts double digit wins for the Irish predicted a title game of the BCS whipping boys - Ohio State and Oklahoma. Corso selected USC over Missouri.
I no longer clear my schedule for 'Gameday.' I might watch the open but its become a TIVO event for me because too much of the 60 Minutes documentaries or feel good stories. The analysis looks more and more like it originates from Gameday's producers rather than the on-screen talent. But, it's still the best there is for a preview...
A couple of things about the show stood out to me. One, Herbstreit called Matthew Stafford the best QB in the country. The exhibition stuff he does in a t-shirt and shorts is apparently the stuff of legends and will no doubt attract the eye of the NFL soon but the numbers when he puts on the pads and the helmet are not even close to the top QBs in college football. (see my earlier breakdown of his career to date)
Holtz should not be allowed to comment on anything Notre Dame. 10 or 11 wins? He had the same type of prediction last year. ESPN's producers are probably just trying to setup the sparring sessions to come between Holtz and Mark May.
Fowler claimed no other conference was even close to the SEC this year. Not so fast. The Big 12 has a shot to be close or its equal....this year. A few years ago, the Big 12 overall was a joke but the balance provided by Missouri and Kansas with the potential of Tech as a BCS sleeper this year has dramatically improved the Big 12's rep. Now if Oklahoma can just show up in a BCS game they way they approach the Big 12 title games.
I realize the SEC owns the last two national champions but LSU has had the ultimate luxury of playing their BCS games as virtual home games inside the Superdome, Florida's loss to Michigan was perhaps the most shocking result of the bowl season and that Arkansas team that beat LSU in Baton Rouge got blown out by the Big 12's Missouri in which Tony Temple was somehow the best back on the field despite the presence of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
A lot of surprising love for Ohio State from the panel. Most of the media has banished them from legit title discussion despite their high ranking again. The consensus believes they will get bumped in LA and the voters will see to it they don't get to Miami by winning a weak Big Ten. More surprising was that Herbie picked USC and Florida to get to the title game - not his Buckeyes. The same Lou Holtz that predicts double digit wins for the Irish predicted a title game of the BCS whipping boys - Ohio State and Oklahoma. Corso selected USC over Missouri.
I no longer clear my schedule for 'Gameday.' I might watch the open but its become a TIVO event for me because too much of the 60 Minutes documentaries or feel good stories. The analysis looks more and more like it originates from Gameday's producers rather than the on-screen talent. But, it's still the best there is for a preview...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
ESPN's Love for Missouri
ESPN's lovefest for Missouri and Chase Daniel is just beginning. The Espire's (my affectionate term for ESPN) Big 12 blogger Tim Griffin gives Missouri the edge over Oklahoma. Bruce Feldman thinks Missouri going to win the national title and I assume that means he thinks Chase Daniel wins the Heisman.
I'm actually with Feldman for the first 12 games of the year. I think Missouri is good enough to remain undefeated up until the Big 12 title game. They will beat Illinois and cruise through the remainder of their non-conference. Pelini was a good hire but Nebraska will be in no position to pull off a win over Missouri. The teams that might be able to score with the Tigers and therefore possibly pull off an 'upset' - Oklahoma State, Colorado and K-State - have to travel to Columbia. I think KU will come back to earth and will be no match for Missouri at Arrowhead in the regular season finale. The 12-0 regular season really comes down to beating Texas in Austin. I think Chase Daniel will return to his home state and leave happy.
Texas struggled last year and given their losses to graduation and early entry, they are still a young team in transition with 4 returning starters on defense and a vulnerable secondary. The Horns got drilled by K-State and barely beat a poor Nebraska team in Austin. Muschamp is a great hire but there is too much work to be done this year. Texas will be back in 2009 but I think they could fall below their impressive streak of 10-win seasons.
So, the stage is set for Missouri and Chase Daniel. 60 minutes away from a Big 12 championship, the BCS title game shot, a Heisman for Daniel and getting the Oklahoma monkey off the back. I don't know whether or not Oklahoma will be in position for the BCS title game or not when they face Missouri again. The Sooners need to show me something (this coming from a die-hard) in the way of consistency - particularly playing better in true road settings - before I predict the Big 12 game to be a true national championship semi-final game.
I fully expect Missouri to be billed by the media as the favorite at that point, especially if Oklahoma loses a game to say K-State or Oklahoma State. What I don't get is the media going with Missouri over OU at the start of the season. Is it the depature of Curtis Lofton, who seemed to be in the right place for key plays in last year's meetings, or is it the youth of the Oklahoma secondary? "Missouri seems determined and focused"......we heard the same stuff last year.
Oklahoma and Missouri have played three times in the last two seasons - all OU wins by scores of 26-10, 41-31 and 38-17. There are many variables but the key element was the red zone dominance of Oklahoma. The Sooners scored TDs while Missouri was settling for a lot of FGs. Take last year's Big 12 title game. In the second half, the score was Oklahoma 28-17. Both teams had actually scored four times but Oklahoma had 4 TDs while Missouri had 3 FGs, one TD and a two point conversion.
Missouri has actually had a lot of success moving the ball between the 20s but when the field is vertically limited inside the red zone, Oklahoma's power running game and Missouri's lack of one has been the key difference between the two teams. The red zone dominance reflects the superiority of Oklahoma in the trenches and that isn't going to change in 2008. Oklahoma has one of the best offensive lines in the country and probably one of the best defensive lines. Also consider that the Sooners most explosive player, DeMarco Murray, was a non-factor in the game in Norman and injured during the Big 12 title game.
Missouri would have a fair amount of fans at a Big 12 title game in Arrowhead but it's not like Sooner fans haven't made plenty of trips to KC. Oklahoma has won 3 of their 5 Big 12 titles in Kansas City - two of which were in a deep freeze.
I'm actually with Feldman for the first 12 games of the year. I think Missouri is good enough to remain undefeated up until the Big 12 title game. They will beat Illinois and cruise through the remainder of their non-conference. Pelini was a good hire but Nebraska will be in no position to pull off a win over Missouri. The teams that might be able to score with the Tigers and therefore possibly pull off an 'upset' - Oklahoma State, Colorado and K-State - have to travel to Columbia. I think KU will come back to earth and will be no match for Missouri at Arrowhead in the regular season finale. The 12-0 regular season really comes down to beating Texas in Austin. I think Chase Daniel will return to his home state and leave happy.
Texas struggled last year and given their losses to graduation and early entry, they are still a young team in transition with 4 returning starters on defense and a vulnerable secondary. The Horns got drilled by K-State and barely beat a poor Nebraska team in Austin. Muschamp is a great hire but there is too much work to be done this year. Texas will be back in 2009 but I think they could fall below their impressive streak of 10-win seasons.
So, the stage is set for Missouri and Chase Daniel. 60 minutes away from a Big 12 championship, the BCS title game shot, a Heisman for Daniel and getting the Oklahoma monkey off the back. I don't know whether or not Oklahoma will be in position for the BCS title game or not when they face Missouri again. The Sooners need to show me something (this coming from a die-hard) in the way of consistency - particularly playing better in true road settings - before I predict the Big 12 game to be a true national championship semi-final game.
I fully expect Missouri to be billed by the media as the favorite at that point, especially if Oklahoma loses a game to say K-State or Oklahoma State. What I don't get is the media going with Missouri over OU at the start of the season. Is it the depature of Curtis Lofton, who seemed to be in the right place for key plays in last year's meetings, or is it the youth of the Oklahoma secondary? "Missouri seems determined and focused"......we heard the same stuff last year.
Oklahoma and Missouri have played three times in the last two seasons - all OU wins by scores of 26-10, 41-31 and 38-17. There are many variables but the key element was the red zone dominance of Oklahoma. The Sooners scored TDs while Missouri was settling for a lot of FGs. Take last year's Big 12 title game. In the second half, the score was Oklahoma 28-17. Both teams had actually scored four times but Oklahoma had 4 TDs while Missouri had 3 FGs, one TD and a two point conversion.
Missouri has actually had a lot of success moving the ball between the 20s but when the field is vertically limited inside the red zone, Oklahoma's power running game and Missouri's lack of one has been the key difference between the two teams. The red zone dominance reflects the superiority of Oklahoma in the trenches and that isn't going to change in 2008. Oklahoma has one of the best offensive lines in the country and probably one of the best defensive lines. Also consider that the Sooners most explosive player, DeMarco Murray, was a non-factor in the game in Norman and injured during the Big 12 title game.
Missouri would have a fair amount of fans at a Big 12 title game in Arrowhead but it's not like Sooner fans haven't made plenty of trips to KC. Oklahoma has won 3 of their 5 Big 12 titles in Kansas City - two of which were in a deep freeze.
Tap the Brakes on Stafford and Georgia
Georgia has the talent to win the national title - at least I think they do - but there are too many factors working against them. Tough schedule. Distractions. Questions.
Every assessment of Georgia talks about their schedule and the SEC. Consecutive early road trips to S. Carolina and Arizona State. Baton Rouge. The Cocktail Party against Superman and a Florida team that will be looking for revenge. At Auburn. Georgia can beat them all but they won't.
Georgia has not handled things well since thumping Hawaii in the Sugar. Off-the-field trouble is becoming the norm in college football but the number of UGA players involving in such activity Georgia is alarming. How many players are suspended for the opener? Georgia will still beat Georgia Southern but off-the-field trouble can linger. (ask Texas) It's becoming increasing tougher to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or even No. 2. Check the number of 1-2 teams that lost to unranked teams last year. Georgia has been hyped since the end of last season.
The final issue is that the so-called experts are allowing their view of what Matthew Stafford might do at an NFL combine in Feb '09 or '10 overshadow the need for him to polish his current game. He has all the tools but the track record is just not that impressive. I don't put much stock in Stafford's freshman stats - only to set the comparison to the sophomore year where there should be significant improvement. The results are mixed.
Stafford's TD to INT ratio improved from 7/13 in his freshman year to 19/10 during the sophomore campaign. However, his completion percentage (CP) only improved from 53% to 56%. Many times soph QBs will improve their numbers as the season goes along. However, that is not the case with Stafford. In fact, his highest CP was 75% in the opener against Oklahoma State. The second highest (and only remaining CP over 70%) was two weeks later against W. Carolina. On three occasions during the season, Stafford's CP was under 50% and those were actually spread out - one in each third of the season. Another interesting find was Stafford had only one game with a CP of 60%+ during the months of October and November. The CP trend line was declining the entire month of November.
I have nothing against either Georgia or Stafford but the the pre-season No. 1 gets the closest look and ESPN personalities can't stop raving about this guy and his shot at perhaps a Heisman Trophy. The opportunity is there as with any QB on a national title contender but his track record just doesn't compare with other QBs across the country - at least not yet and now he won't have his starting LT for all of 2008 to protect his blindside.
Every assessment of Georgia talks about their schedule and the SEC. Consecutive early road trips to S. Carolina and Arizona State. Baton Rouge. The Cocktail Party against Superman and a Florida team that will be looking for revenge. At Auburn. Georgia can beat them all but they won't.
Georgia has not handled things well since thumping Hawaii in the Sugar. Off-the-field trouble is becoming the norm in college football but the number of UGA players involving in such activity Georgia is alarming. How many players are suspended for the opener? Georgia will still beat Georgia Southern but off-the-field trouble can linger. (ask Texas) It's becoming increasing tougher to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or even No. 2. Check the number of 1-2 teams that lost to unranked teams last year. Georgia has been hyped since the end of last season.
The final issue is that the so-called experts are allowing their view of what Matthew Stafford might do at an NFL combine in Feb '09 or '10 overshadow the need for him to polish his current game. He has all the tools but the track record is just not that impressive. I don't put much stock in Stafford's freshman stats - only to set the comparison to the sophomore year where there should be significant improvement. The results are mixed.
Stafford's TD to INT ratio improved from 7/13 in his freshman year to 19/10 during the sophomore campaign. However, his completion percentage (CP) only improved from 53% to 56%. Many times soph QBs will improve their numbers as the season goes along. However, that is not the case with Stafford. In fact, his highest CP was 75% in the opener against Oklahoma State. The second highest (and only remaining CP over 70%) was two weeks later against W. Carolina. On three occasions during the season, Stafford's CP was under 50% and those were actually spread out - one in each third of the season. Another interesting find was Stafford had only one game with a CP of 60%+ during the months of October and November. The CP trend line was declining the entire month of November.
I have nothing against either Georgia or Stafford but the the pre-season No. 1 gets the closest look and ESPN personalities can't stop raving about this guy and his shot at perhaps a Heisman Trophy. The opportunity is there as with any QB on a national title contender but his track record just doesn't compare with other QBs across the country - at least not yet and now he won't have his starting LT for all of 2008 to protect his blindside.
The Second Act
After coming to the realization the entire sports universe is going the way of the blog - even ESPN.com - and getting tired of posting the longest responses on message boards, I'm giving this blog thing another shot.
Last season is long gone. The pre-season mags have been out since June and the pre-season rankings are the hot topic - that and the number of players missing the opener for Georgia. Speaking of Georgia, no surprise as the pre-season No. 1 but I don't think they will stay there and that was before the injury to their starting LT. Georgia is talented but every day they look more and more like the team that might disappoint the most.
First and foremost, its tougher for teams to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or 2. Go back to the number of teams last year that moved up with solid play only to look average at best in the spotlight and fall quickly and many times to an unranked team that had no business pulling off an upset. Will the upsets continue this year? The overall trend line of upsets vs. history will continue to increase but the sheer number won't reach last year. I think college football's traditional powers will continue to occupy the top 'floors' of rankings but upsets will reshuffle the occupants more frequently.
I don't think we will see the two loss thing for a while but the debate over the one-loss teams will be almost an annual thing - which leads us to strength of schedule talk. Once upon a time it was in the BCS but taken out. Many schools, like Texas, have elected to stay away from high profile series in the future like the one they recently had with Ohio State. Oklahoma is going the opposite direction which is why their highly respected AD Joe Castiglione has been advocating SOS be put back into the equation.
The way the system is setup, it would appear Texas is making the right move by taking the path of least resistance. Their thought is don't take a lot of risk in the non-conference because if they can go undefeated in the Big 12, chances are they get in. However, it actually may work against teams with that approach. A couple of years ago some argued it was harder to win a title in the more competitive SEC because of the difficulty in staying unbeaten vs. say USC in the Pac-10 or Ohio State in the Big Ten. It's a foregone conclusion that an undefeated BCS team would likely get into the national title game over a one-loss BCS team no matter the circumstances or particular BCS conference. However, parity is resulting in fewer BCS undefeateds and the trend is likely to continue. Therefore, in a comparison of one-loss teams, conference reputation and the non-conference schedule may be the deciding factor after all. It certainly worked for the SEC the last two years.
Last season is long gone. The pre-season mags have been out since June and the pre-season rankings are the hot topic - that and the number of players missing the opener for Georgia. Speaking of Georgia, no surprise as the pre-season No. 1 but I don't think they will stay there and that was before the injury to their starting LT. Georgia is talented but every day they look more and more like the team that might disappoint the most.
First and foremost, its tougher for teams to shoulder the burden of being No. 1 or 2. Go back to the number of teams last year that moved up with solid play only to look average at best in the spotlight and fall quickly and many times to an unranked team that had no business pulling off an upset. Will the upsets continue this year? The overall trend line of upsets vs. history will continue to increase but the sheer number won't reach last year. I think college football's traditional powers will continue to occupy the top 'floors' of rankings but upsets will reshuffle the occupants more frequently.
I don't think we will see the two loss thing for a while but the debate over the one-loss teams will be almost an annual thing - which leads us to strength of schedule talk. Once upon a time it was in the BCS but taken out. Many schools, like Texas, have elected to stay away from high profile series in the future like the one they recently had with Ohio State. Oklahoma is going the opposite direction which is why their highly respected AD Joe Castiglione has been advocating SOS be put back into the equation.
The way the system is setup, it would appear Texas is making the right move by taking the path of least resistance. Their thought is don't take a lot of risk in the non-conference because if they can go undefeated in the Big 12, chances are they get in. However, it actually may work against teams with that approach. A couple of years ago some argued it was harder to win a title in the more competitive SEC because of the difficulty in staying unbeaten vs. say USC in the Pac-10 or Ohio State in the Big Ten. It's a foregone conclusion that an undefeated BCS team would likely get into the national title game over a one-loss BCS team no matter the circumstances or particular BCS conference. However, parity is resulting in fewer BCS undefeateds and the trend is likely to continue. Therefore, in a comparison of one-loss teams, conference reputation and the non-conference schedule may be the deciding factor after all. It certainly worked for the SEC the last two years.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
X's and O's of a College Football Playoff
I am one of the few who wouldn't mind keeping everything as is - the reason is because of the rush I get throughout the college football regular season when a title contender is challenged and/or upset. Regular season upsets of top teams in college football have no equal in sports. The victor is thrilled. The loser is devastated. The difference is in the latter. Take a college basketball upset. The underdog fans rush the court but the favorite gets over the loss pretty darn quick - because it really doesn't matter until March.
I was watching the Cowboys struggle against the Lions on Sunday. No doubt the game was entertaining but what was on the line? Dallas can lose a game and still have the tiebreaker over Green Bay. Essentially they have mulligan in their back pocket going into every remaining game. Plenty of mulligans were handed out in college football's title race this year but not one of the top college football teams had any clue they would get one before, during or immediately following the game.
A playoff would be a better way to end the season though. I just prefer top teams in do or die situations over a 3 month period than 3 weeks - so I can continue to sleep at night without a playoff. Everyone has an idea of a college football playoff. I have gotten so sick of seeing ones that have no chance of working that I have developed my own. First, you must acknowledge the moving parts and obstacles within college football. There is no Roger Goodell or David Stern in college football. There is the BCS, the have and the have nots, the lawyers ready to represent the have nots and of course.....the Rose Bowl.
Issue 1) The folks in Pasadena are perhaps the first obstacle to reforming the current system. There have been plenty of articles that say one or both of the Pac 10 and/or Big Ten would side with the Rose if say, a plus one was implemented. Let's address the plus one for a moment. Easy enough, the structure is already in place with the stand alone championship game. The problem - it is an occasional solution. It would solve problems in one year and create problems in the next - like 2002 and 2005. The biggest problem I see is that it would create a second payday for schools and their BCS conferences. Boise would not have made a plus one title game last year. Thus, the problem that resulted in a 5th BCS game (for the little guy to get the same money) would resurface.
Back to the Rose. They want their traditional matchup - even in the face of a blockbuster game. We just saw an example of that with the Rose selecting Illnois instead of Georgia to play USC. If they boycott and can take one of their conferences with them - no playoff system is truly legitimate. I have an easy fix for that.
Issue 2) The BCS bowls and their host cities want to sell as many tickets and hotels as possible. There has been concern expressed over asking a fan base to travel to three consecutive neutral sites in a 3 round playoff scenario. I believe the concern is legit. One of the reason so many fans can travel to the current bowls is because 1) schools are on holiday break for students and children of alums and 2) the period between Christmas and New Year's is typically the slowest period for corporate America because employees are using their remaining days off. If I was a bowl official wearing one of those Craig Sager-esque type jackets, I would be concerned with overconfident fans bypassing the bowl game for later rounds. I believe I can fix (help) that problem.
Issue 3) Keep the conferences happy and keep conference championships important. There is no way an 8 team playoff would be just the top 8 teams in the BCS ranking. Under the current situation, the Big 12 would have three teams, the Big East would have none (WV at 9) and Hawaii would be left out. 16 teams is too many and would dilute conference games.
The format - 8 team playoff from the four BCS bowls. The Rose gets the Pac-10 champ v. Big Ten champ, the Fiesta gets Big 12 champ v. TBD, the Sugar gets SEC champ v. TBD and the Orange gets ACC champ v. TBD. Automatic spots also go to Big East champ and the highest ranked non-BCS champ. The final spot is a wildcard spot for the highest ranked team that did not win their conference or Notre Dame if they make the final 8. If one of conference champs is not ranked in the top 12-14, then a spot opens up. The BCS bowls are played Jan 1-2. Semis are played on home fields on the highest ranked winners on the first weekend after 7 days have passed from the opening round. The title game is at a neutral site - just like the Super Bowl.
If this playoff system was implemented this year, it would look like this:
Rose - USC (Pac 10 champ) v. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Fiesta - Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) v. West Virginia (Big East champ, selected by Fiesta)
Sugar - LSU (SEC champ) v. Hawaii (highest ranked non-BCS conf champ, selected by Sugar)
Orange - Virginia Tech (ACC champ) v. Georgia (wildcard, highest ranked non-conf champ)
Let's assume the winners were: USC, Oklahoma, LSU and Georgia
By their spot in the final pre-bowl BCS rankings - Oklahoma and LSU would host semi final games. #2 LSU would host #7 USC. #4 Oklahoma would host #5 Georgia. The winners would play - who knows where - for the national title game the following weekend.
The Rose is happy getting their traditional matchup. The conferences are happy because they will continue to get the money as they do now. The NCAA does not control the system and does not get to cut the money pie into 100+ pieces. The conference tie ins and games played on New Year's or the 2nd is good for the traditionalist that loves the old school setup. The fans get their playoff. The travel problem is broken up. The title game would be played in mid January, right as most schools are getting back into session. Seniors and early entries would still have enough time to rehab minor injuries in time for the NFL combine in late Feb. It still gives coaches enough time to capitalize on post-season success on the recruiting trail.
I was watching the Cowboys struggle against the Lions on Sunday. No doubt the game was entertaining but what was on the line? Dallas can lose a game and still have the tiebreaker over Green Bay. Essentially they have mulligan in their back pocket going into every remaining game. Plenty of mulligans were handed out in college football's title race this year but not one of the top college football teams had any clue they would get one before, during or immediately following the game.
A playoff would be a better way to end the season though. I just prefer top teams in do or die situations over a 3 month period than 3 weeks - so I can continue to sleep at night without a playoff. Everyone has an idea of a college football playoff. I have gotten so sick of seeing ones that have no chance of working that I have developed my own. First, you must acknowledge the moving parts and obstacles within college football. There is no Roger Goodell or David Stern in college football. There is the BCS, the have and the have nots, the lawyers ready to represent the have nots and of course.....the Rose Bowl.
Issue 1) The folks in Pasadena are perhaps the first obstacle to reforming the current system. There have been plenty of articles that say one or both of the Pac 10 and/or Big Ten would side with the Rose if say, a plus one was implemented. Let's address the plus one for a moment. Easy enough, the structure is already in place with the stand alone championship game. The problem - it is an occasional solution. It would solve problems in one year and create problems in the next - like 2002 and 2005. The biggest problem I see is that it would create a second payday for schools and their BCS conferences. Boise would not have made a plus one title game last year. Thus, the problem that resulted in a 5th BCS game (for the little guy to get the same money) would resurface.
Back to the Rose. They want their traditional matchup - even in the face of a blockbuster game. We just saw an example of that with the Rose selecting Illnois instead of Georgia to play USC. If they boycott and can take one of their conferences with them - no playoff system is truly legitimate. I have an easy fix for that.
Issue 2) The BCS bowls and their host cities want to sell as many tickets and hotels as possible. There has been concern expressed over asking a fan base to travel to three consecutive neutral sites in a 3 round playoff scenario. I believe the concern is legit. One of the reason so many fans can travel to the current bowls is because 1) schools are on holiday break for students and children of alums and 2) the period between Christmas and New Year's is typically the slowest period for corporate America because employees are using their remaining days off. If I was a bowl official wearing one of those Craig Sager-esque type jackets, I would be concerned with overconfident fans bypassing the bowl game for later rounds. I believe I can fix (help) that problem.
Issue 3) Keep the conferences happy and keep conference championships important. There is no way an 8 team playoff would be just the top 8 teams in the BCS ranking. Under the current situation, the Big 12 would have three teams, the Big East would have none (WV at 9) and Hawaii would be left out. 16 teams is too many and would dilute conference games.
The format - 8 team playoff from the four BCS bowls. The Rose gets the Pac-10 champ v. Big Ten champ, the Fiesta gets Big 12 champ v. TBD, the Sugar gets SEC champ v. TBD and the Orange gets ACC champ v. TBD. Automatic spots also go to Big East champ and the highest ranked non-BCS champ. The final spot is a wildcard spot for the highest ranked team that did not win their conference or Notre Dame if they make the final 8. If one of conference champs is not ranked in the top 12-14, then a spot opens up. The BCS bowls are played Jan 1-2. Semis are played on home fields on the highest ranked winners on the first weekend after 7 days have passed from the opening round. The title game is at a neutral site - just like the Super Bowl.
If this playoff system was implemented this year, it would look like this:
Rose - USC (Pac 10 champ) v. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Fiesta - Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) v. West Virginia (Big East champ, selected by Fiesta)
Sugar - LSU (SEC champ) v. Hawaii (highest ranked non-BCS conf champ, selected by Sugar)
Orange - Virginia Tech (ACC champ) v. Georgia (wildcard, highest ranked non-conf champ)
Let's assume the winners were: USC, Oklahoma, LSU and Georgia
By their spot in the final pre-bowl BCS rankings - Oklahoma and LSU would host semi final games. #2 LSU would host #7 USC. #4 Oklahoma would host #5 Georgia. The winners would play - who knows where - for the national title game the following weekend.
The Rose is happy getting their traditional matchup. The conferences are happy because they will continue to get the money as they do now. The NCAA does not control the system and does not get to cut the money pie into 100+ pieces. The conference tie ins and games played on New Year's or the 2nd is good for the traditionalist that loves the old school setup. The fans get their playoff. The travel problem is broken up. The title game would be played in mid January, right as most schools are getting back into session. Seniors and early entries would still have enough time to rehab minor injuries in time for the NFL combine in late Feb. It still gives coaches enough time to capitalize on post-season success on the recruiting trail.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Coming Attractions
It's been a while since I wrote down my thoughts on the last few weeks of college football but they will be forthcoming. The annual BCS firestorm is in full blaze. I think the coaches poll is a joke. (I would like to hear to rationale behind the Bowdens putting Missouri over Oklahoma. Mike Bellotti did the same thing - perhaps he shared a drink with his wife while filling out his ballot.) The Harris poll is even more of a joke. But, I think the BCS got it right again and I will offer more explanation later.
I do not favor a playoff but since I see so many unrealistic ideas, I have come up with my own just for fun - and one that might actually work.
Talk about bittersweet. Ohio State was glad to see at least one of the top 2 go down but not both. The result is having to play LSU in the Superdome. Speaking from experience, it's overwhelming inside and outside the stadium for the opponent.
I think the BCS matchups could be pretty entertaining. First, there is no Notre Dame taking up a spot this year. The Fiesta should be fun if West Virginia recovers mentally from the Pitt loss. I think a lot of people will tune into the Sugar Bowl to see if Hawaii-Georgia can be a repeat of OU-Boise State. Although Missouri deserved it more, I think Kansas will surprise people and be very competitive and possibly beat Virginia Tech. The Rose Bowl - what a shame the folks in Pasadena chose tradition over a monster showdown. Instead of USC-Georgia, we get USC-Illinois. The Zookers are on the way up but they didn't earn this stage yet.
I do not favor a playoff but since I see so many unrealistic ideas, I have come up with my own just for fun - and one that might actually work.
Talk about bittersweet. Ohio State was glad to see at least one of the top 2 go down but not both. The result is having to play LSU in the Superdome. Speaking from experience, it's overwhelming inside and outside the stadium for the opponent.
I think the BCS matchups could be pretty entertaining. First, there is no Notre Dame taking up a spot this year. The Fiesta should be fun if West Virginia recovers mentally from the Pitt loss. I think a lot of people will tune into the Sugar Bowl to see if Hawaii-Georgia can be a repeat of OU-Boise State. Although Missouri deserved it more, I think Kansas will surprise people and be very competitive and possibly beat Virginia Tech. The Rose Bowl - what a shame the folks in Pasadena chose tradition over a monster showdown. Instead of USC-Georgia, we get USC-Illinois. The Zookers are on the way up but they didn't earn this stage yet.
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