Monday, September 8, 2008

Review of Week 2

Not a great slate of games on Week 2 but interesting nonetheless.

East Carolina stunned West Virginia. There was an upset buzz on this game from East Carolina's 'upset' over Virginia Tech in the opener but only a few took the bait. The real shocker was the score. 3 points for West Virginia with Pat White at the controls? The Neers will bounce back for this season but Bill Stewart is Larry Coker all over again except the fall will be quicker.

Ohio State struggles to get past Ohio. This is the classic look ahead performance. I really can't decide whether or not USC is going to blowout the Buckeyes in LA. I think conventional logic would suggest yes, but college football doesn't follow that path. Right now, everyone is doubting Ohio State and USC has been told how great they are and they might be thinking they are going to cruise. The Buckeyes would be advised to keep their mouth shut but earlier WR Ray Small questions USC's class. Bottom line, if Ohio State does get thumped, they shall not appear even close to the top two spots in the land at season's end. I think the voters will see to it.

Oklahoma's fast break no-huddle offense might be the missing piece to making the Sooners better in January. The approach is not completely foreign to OU's Big 12 opponents but it might be to a BCS opponent. Oklahoma had powerful offenses during their runs to the title game in 2003 and 2004 but come gametime, LSU and USC had them figured out to a degree. There are so many weapons on this club and Sam Bradford is developing into the Tom Brady (pro and healthy version) of college football. Ryan Broyles just made the Sooners even more scary to defend. The Sooners were supposed to get a real test from Cincinnati and at one point they got it. OU started fast, stalled for a bit but finished strong on both sides of the ball. Stoops has to solve his kickoff coverage which allowed the only meaningful TD by the Bearcats in the second half.

I was actually more impressed by Miami than Florida in their matchup but its based on expectations. Miami still has a long way to go but they looked the part for most of the game. The U talked up their visit to Norman last year and left 51-13 losers. I expected Florida to cruise. I think Marve will show some promise throughout the year but they still need more recruits and ones that can get clearance to start school.

Somewhere on Saturday night there had to be a meeting of Notre Dame heavy hitters discussing the potential of raising enough capital to oust Charlie Weis if the season remains on its current direction. Talk about a leveraged buyout. The opener should encourage no one in the Irish faithful. From the moment Jimmy Clausen had his MTV-ish presser to announce his college choice, I thought he was destined to be a bust. Still early but my view has only gotten stronger.

Shame of football rule makers for trying to take fun out of a game. Eliminating the taunting - OK - even though trash talk is fun in my opinion. Once again the Pac-10 officiating seminars appear to be a total waste of time. Bob Stoops might be getting nervous a series of make up calls is in the works for OU's visit to Washington this weekend.

Should LSU just schedule away games during the month of September?

The replays of old SWC battles between Texas and Arkansas will provide fans with a lot more competition than they will see on Saturday. Texas is going to to roll.

Kansas at South Florida on Friday night - finally a decent reason to stay home. Also, big game for BCS potential as Fresno hosts Wisconsin.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Games to Watch in Week 2

Week 2 begins with an upset - Vandy takes down Spurrier and the Gamecocks. Steve Martin and Vandy coach Bobby Johnson - separated at birth?

Navy at Ball State on Friday night - only if some football is better than no football but it might be competitive which might be rare this weekend.

Saturday, September 6th

Early time slot
The Big Ten loves the noon eastern kickoff. Can RichRod get his first win over Miami (Ohio)? Michigan is a 14.5 point favorite. ESPN2HD Ohio State tunes up minus Beanie Wells with Ohio U. ESPNHD

Boston College is a 7 point favorite over Georgia Tech. At least the ACC can't take another reputation hit in this one. RaycomHD/Gameplan

Mid-Afternoon
BYU (-9.5) at Washington - the Cougars are picked by some as a potential BCS buster. Tyrone Willingham could really use a win here. U Dub didn't look very good at Oregon last week. FSN HD

Cincinnati at Oklahoma (-21.5) - ABC is really downplaying this game by giving it the shaft on their regional coverage. It's gets only standard def treatment while HD cameras are being sent to the monster matchup of rebuilding Ole Miss at Wake. That's a joke. This game has potential national title implications for the home team. Cinci won 10 games last year and won't be intimidated. The Oklahoma team might disappoint in BCS games but they are dominant at home. ABC

West Virginia at East Carolina - ECU's upset of Va Tech last week is creating some buzz about this game. This should be one to watch. The line opened at WV -9.5 and has moved to 7.5. ESPNHD

Late-Afternoon
A&M at New Mexico - who had the worst week 1? Tommy Bowden, Phil Fulmer or Mike Sherman. The Aggies are in danger of starting the Sherman era 0-2. The line started at A&M -3 but has dropped 0.5 to -2.5. Versus Network

Early Evening
Kansas is a 21 point favorite at home against La Tech but don't be surprised if the Bulldogs make this a game. FSN HD

S. Florida (-14) at Central Florida - amazing there is actually interest in this game but these programs have earned it. S. Florida might end up winning the Big East but this one could be tougher than expected. ESPN2HD

Prime Time
Miami at Florida (-22) - this is a matchup in name only. Miami's defense apparently isn't impressed with Tim Tebow. This reminds me of last year when Miami was talking about a statement against Oklahoma in Norman. Sooners won 51-13. The Gators will cover. ESPNHD

Late Night
Texas (-27) at UTEP - McCoy looked like his freshman self in the opener and the pass defense settled down. The road trip might cause Texas to open slow but they will eventually pour it on in the second half. ESPN2HD

Game not on TV but should be - Texas Tech (-10) at Nevada (9 eastern / 8 central). The final score could resemble a basketball game. It could last 5 hours. Tech's defense did not show the improvement that some anticipated when putting them as a sleeper pick in the Big 12.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Quick Look back at Week 1

Apologies to the 1-2 people that stumbled upon this board from the link on ouinsider.com. I had some family matters that impacted by weekend and the ability to maintain this popular blog.

First of all, caution on reading too much into Week 1. USC looked really, really good and was rewarded in the polls. But, we don't know how Virginia (or any of these victims) will fare the remainder of the season. The perception of the Cavs might be due to last year's team that featured Chris Long and should have closed out Texas Tech in the Gator Bowl. Still, Sanchez looked sharp and Carroll might elect to put him into more of a playmaker role against Ohio State vs. a caretaker. If Wells can't go in LA, I just see a scenario in which Ohio State might get embarrassed again on the big stage.

The experts in the heartland might want to hold off on the predictions that improved defenses will result in Missouri and Texas Tech to elevate their status in the Big 12. Missouri is good because of Daniel and Maclin but the defense gave up too many big plays. Texas Tech gave up too many plays in general against Eastern Washington. Texas' secondary settled down after a rough first quarter and played well against a decent QB in Fla Atlantic's Rusty Smith. I still think Texas has issues but they exceeded my expectations in Week 1.

Michigan fans just need to accept the growing pains and realize there will be a payoff when Rodriguez settles in and has the talent to run his system. Utah is a decent team. Not sure where to begin with Clemson. Tiger fans need parole from the Tommy Bowden sentence. A&M is hard to figure out. Huge school deep in a recruiting hotbed. Big stadium. Big budget. Fans live football. A&M has to be one of the longest running disappointments in college football and the first game of the Mike Sherman era doesn't suggest change is on the way.

Fresno might just crash the BCS party this year. Solid win at Rutgers. The SEC took a reputation hit as a division winner in Tennessee travels west to get upset by rebuilding UCLA.

The 12th game decision has resulted in a lot of mismatches but credit the big name schools that agree to the neutral site meeting to open the season.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Is this the year Texas fails to reach 10-wins?

Seven straight seasons of at least 10-wins - is that impressive streak about to end this year?

Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman released his prediction of another 10-win season. After a review of his article, I'm sticking with my prediction that Texas will finally finish under 10 wins.

Colt McCoy had a 'sophomore slump' in 2007 for a couple of reasons. One, he pressed the big play too much (by his own admission) but the main reason his offensive line wasn't anything close to what he had protecting him during his freshman year. Bohls suggests the Texas offensive line might be one of the best in the country this year? I see it getting better but not that good.

However, protection won't be McCoy's main issue this year. It will be dealing with the loss of the weapons he had last year. The main trouble will be dealing with the early entries of TE Jermichael Finley and RB Jamaal Charles.

Texas struggled last year, a lot more than some people remember. They struggled out of the game against Arkansas State and trailed TCU 10-o at half before the Frogs imploded with turnovers and perhaps an inspired speech by Mack Brown. The Horns barely get by Central Florida. Instead of exacting revenge against K-State for the previous year, the Longhorns get blown out by the Cats in the worst home loss of the Mack Brown era.

Credit Texas for pulling it together and playing Oklahoma tough. If not for Lofton's strip of Charles as he was headed for a go-ahead score, maybe Texas pulls the upset. However, Jermichael Finley was the offensive key for Texas as Oklahoma couldn't cover or tackle him for three quarters.

Texas (at home) did not score a TD against mediocre Nebraska until the fourth quarter where Charles saved the day with the majority of his 290 yards rushing. Charles also rescued Texas from defeat at Oklahoma State where the Cowboys held a 35-14 lead going into the fourth quarter. Charles ran for 180 but with an 11 yard per carry average in that game.

Texas outscored Tech in a wild 59-43 game in Austin but then tanked on another revenge opportunity against rival A&M. On a day in which the failed Coach Fran era ended in College Station, A&M dominated Texas with a comfy point cushion for most of the game.

Texas beat Arizona State in a high scoring Holiday Bowl for its 10th win. Arizona State was a good team but they played like crap in that game. Credit Texas for playing with a sense of purpose and applying pressure to Carpenter but the Sun Devils lost 5 turnovers to only one for Texas and there were several balls on the ground that the Texas offense was lucky to recover.

Bottom line, there are as many if not more Q-marks about Texas in 2008. Muschamp is a great hire that will immediately improve the attitude but he has work to do. There is the loss of a stout DT tandem in Frank Okam and Derek Lokey. A freshman secondary facing a pass happy league with quality QBs is not a recipe for immediate results. McCoy will have more protection but the quality and experience combo of his skill players takes a temporary dip. The WRs will be OK but there is no immediate heir apparent for Finley and more importantly Charles. The running back by committee approach doesn't scare defensive coordinators like Charles and his speed. (Why do think Texas was fuming over losing Darnell Scott to Colorado?)

Predicted Record: 8-4 regular season

Oklahoma is superior in trenches and Bradford has his athletic TE (Gresham) and home run threat at RB (Murray). Chase Daniel has something to prove in his home state and will torch the Longhorn secondary. It will be another tough day for the secondary in Lubbock as Tech will beat Texas. I also think Texas will lose at either Colorado or Kansas.

This is a transition year for Texas because of their youth but it will pay dividends for 2009 as they will be back as one of the elite teams in the Big 12 and a factor in the national title race. OU will sub out its starting offensive line in '09 and Missouri and Tech will drop with the departure of their QB and star receivers due to graduation and early entry, respectively.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Games that will decide the Heisman Race

Games to decide the Heisman Race by player....

Tim Tebow (Florida)
at Tennessee 9/20 - rivalry game will get a media spotlight
LSU 10/11 - just another big game in the SEC
Georgia 11/1 - the key game for Tebow
SEC Title game 12/6

Summary: the bar is always raised higher for a returning winner and Tebow's stats on the ground figure to fall with an improved RB position. To repeat, Tebow has to play big while leading the Gators to a national title game appearance or the voters will likely go elsewhere for the sake of variety.

Chase Daniel (Missouri)
Illinois (in St. Louis) 8/30 - this is one of the spotlight games of the opening weekend and a great opportunity for Daniel to get a head start.
at Texas 10/18 - even if Texas is coming off a loss to Oklahoma, the media is going to jump all over Daniel returning to his home state to face the school that ignored him until the last few days of the recruiting process. Texas is vulnerable this year and Daniel could light up the Longhorn secondary. If Missouri wins, the hype-machine on Daniel and the Tigers goes into overdrive in anticipation of a potential rematch with Oklahoma.
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - Missouri is a lock to be in KC on the first Saturday of December but will they be undefeated and in range of a shot at the national title?

Summary: If Chase Daniel leads Missouri past nemesis Oklahoma (likely South winner) in the Big 12 title game and into the national title game, Daniel is your winner no matter what happens with the other guys.

Chris (Beanie) Wells (Ohio State)
at Southern Cal 9/13 - if Wells has a big game against a stout Trojan defense AND the Buckeyes win, Wells takes an early lead but could lose momentum if the Big Ten is as weak as its critics suggest.
at Wisconsin 10/4 - depending on how good the Badgers really are but this will get some media attention.
Michigan 11/22 - Big Blue has no shot to beat Ohio State but its still a marquee rivalry and people still watch.

Summary: the only way for Wells to win it is for Ohio State to win at USC and then hang on to that momentum while Daniel and Tebow need to suffer losses.

Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
Texas (in Dallas) 10/11 - because its a big rivalry and both should be undefeated at the time
Texas Tech 11/22 - could be the game that decides the Big 12 South and a chance to outduel Graham Harrell
Big 12 Title Game 12/6 - would likely face fellow Heisman hopeful

Summary: Bradford may be developing into the Tom Brady of college football. Like Stafford at Georgia, he faces the potential his running back may dominate the highlight reel but the numbers should be there. In a QB heavy league, Bradford can score points by outplaying his competition. It's unlikely a sophomore will win it again. Bradford's shot probably rests on going undefeated surviving a process of elimination by the voters.

Matthew Stafford / Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
at LSU 10/25 - any big game win in Baton Rouge will grab attention
Florida 11/1 - showdown with Tebow
at Auburn 11/15 - sure to be a spotlight game in the SEC
SEC Title game 12/6 - final chance to state the case

Summary: Tough schedule and preseason No. 1 ranking carries a lot of attention and pressure. Will Stafford and Moreno take votes from the other?

Pat White (West Virginia)
at Colorado 9/18 - has the Thursday night spotlight all to himself
Auburn 10/23 - voters will closely watch how White fares against an SEC defense
at Pitt 11/28 - Pitt is a popular pick and upset WV last year, game also falls on a holiday weekend
S. Florida 12/6 - could decide the Big East championship

Summary: White is outstanding but the Mountaineers probably have to punch a ticket to the national title game for him to win it.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Best chance to go undefeated...

Forget for a moment about the scenarios that could unfold in which there is a beauty contest between one loss teams......one of the great fears of the college football fan is to see a BCS conference team go undefeated due to a weak schedule. It would be extremely hard to see a situation in which an undefeated BCS conference champ lost a spot in the title game to a one loss champ from a stronger BCS conference.

Simply looking at the best chance to go undefeated during the regular season, here are my picks and why:

USC - the stout defense can carry the offense early if need be, Young Sanchez has the benefit of a home crowd in 2008 version of Game of the Century against Ohio State, the Pac-10 is down this year.

Ohio State - obviously they would have to beat the team above, but the Big Ten just doesn't appear that challenging. The two games that stand in the way would be at Wisconsin and at Illinois. For some reason I think the addition of Terrelle Pryor will help the Buckeyes stay upset-free during their conference season.

Clemson - I can't believe I am putting Tommy Bowden in this positon but it's totally based on talent at the skill positions and a very favorable schedule. If they get past Alabama, the only other ranked team on their schedule is Wake Forest. They could get beat by Wake or S. Carolina in the finale but the Gamers have to come to Death Valley.

Oklahoma - talent, experience in the trenches and at QB and even though the Big 12 may challenge the SEC for the toughest league label, OU's schedule is favorable as they meet their most talented opponents on a neutral field (Texas) or at home (Tech, Kansas). The key to avoiding the upset plague of the past - more consistency on the road.

Missouri - I predict the Tigers to go 12-0 before losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Missouri will beat Illinois and I think they will take advantage of the Longhorns' growing pains in the secondary to steal a win in Austin. I think people are overrating the potential significance of this year's Missouri-Kansas game. If Chase Daniel can get over the Oklahoma hump, they will be 13-0 and heading to Miami.

Florida - the Gators play in the ultra-competitive SEC but they get a favorable draw with home and away. The Cocktail Party is neutral. The offense should be unstoppable. The injuries on defense are a concern but a lot of experience was gained last year.

Georgia - the schedule is too tough and while Matthew Stafford will likely be cashing a big bonus check in the near future, his track record with the pads is being ignored by those pumping him up due to summer workouts in a t-shirt and shorts. The loss of the LT Sturdivant is a big blow. Off-the field issues could linger but more than anything, the burden of No. 1 is tough - plenty of teams from last year would agree.

West Virginia - Bill Stewart won more than just the most ridiculous looking bowl trophy in college football by beating Oklahoma, he won a full-time gig. I think Stewart will follow the path of Larry Coker and I'm not alone in that view but he still has Pat White and Noel Devine to run up and down the field. Defensive losses open the door too much for an improving Big East. WV also has to travel to upset-minded Colorado for a Thursday night game long before the CU students would even think about ditching the stands for the slopes.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

ESPN Gameday's Entourage

Two great things are about to begin again - college football and finally a new season of Entourage.

On the drive to work, for some reason I started comparing the ESPN Gameday crew to the Entourage crew....

Vincent Chase - there is no debate here, easily Kirk Herbstreit. Herbie could close the deal on a campus visit like Vince could at any spot in LA.

Eric "E" Murphy - Chris Fowler. They both run the show.

Johnny "Drama" Chase - Lee Corso. So many similarities in their career histories.

Turtle - Desmond Howard. On occasion, Howard has put on the pads and the helmet for demonstration. It sort of reminds me when Turtle had to throw on the pads to train Arnold the dog or when he supposed to wear the bunny suit to close the Shanna Moakler character to win a bet for Drama.